Victorian State Election 27/11/2010

[Smid]

Over the past few days, the polls have had us at 49, 50, 51 and 52. I've been focusing on specific booth results in specific electorates and don't know how we finished. The VEC had us (when I left my other computer) at 45 seats to Labor's 43, however I saw some more up-to-date booth results and one of the seats the VEC is calling for us, we're behind in on my numbers, but I don't know about the others. There are lots of postals and pre-polls still to count (something like 20%) and those votes were cast before the swing started to materialise. I know for a fact that some senior MPs are very concerned that it could end up as 44-44 (it looks like there are no independents nor Greens). I've discussed this possibility previously with Hugh and also with a couple of MPs. Anyway, that would be a Constitutional nightmare, I don't even know how it could work. I've done up a quick map, but I'll work on some ones with margins before I post them on here, though. Should have some notional ones together in the next 24 hours.

[Smid]

My first map for this election:

2PP, election night, before postals, pre-poll, re-counts, etc...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Uh... wow. Messy result is messy.

[Hash]

Depressing as all Australian elections are these days. But why is ABC now saying it's deadlock if the Coalition has 45 against 37/38 for Labor?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depressing as all Australian elections are these days. But why is ABC now saying it's deadlock if the Coalition has 45 against 37/38 for Labor?

There are five other seats, and the ALP lead in all of them. And it isn't actually certain if all of the 45 will actually be won by the Coalition. See Smid's post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some huge swings in those inner eastern residential and suburban districts.

[Platypus]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/guide/seatsindoubt.htm

Seats in Doubt, according to the ABC computer, ALP leading in all of them:

Albert Park (my electorate. Good Liberal candidate, bad-esque ALP member, and big votes for the Greens and an Independent. Most notably, however, less than 60% of the enrollment voted yesterday.)

Ballarat East (Regional Victoria held up well for Labor, especially the areas west of Melbourne. This is largely because the Liberal government in the 1990s was absolutely horrible to these areas and the ALP has spent a lot of money rectifying that.)

Eltham (Outer Eastern Melbourne, so a general swing to the Libs but maybe not enough)

Macedon (Shouldn't be this close, but as with Narre Warren North, full of 'yeah, but what have you done for me today?? type bogans)

Monbulk (See Eltham)

Narre Warren North (Outer, outer suburban Southeast. Pretty much just boring suburbia full of malcontents and a rapidly rising population)

And then there's Bentleigh, which the ALP says is in doubt but the ABC computer has as a Liberal gain. It's more or less like Eltham and Monbulk, but a bit closer in. Still a bit of counting to go, but this is the only one of the close seats the Libs lead in and probably the only one they'll win...but they only need one.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

We pulled 9.6% in the primary vote!

[Smid]

2PP Swing by District:



The Labor Party had a swing to it in Murray Valley (I think an incumbent National retired after about 30 years of service, and it's still held by the National Party with about 70% of the 2PP), and also in the four inner-city electorates (probably has more to do with the Liberal Party decision to preference Labor ahead of the Greens, a reversal of the preference decision at the last election, rather than a genuine desire of constituents to re-elect their Labor incumbents).

With the exception of Lowan, the National Party had a swing to it in every seat it already held. It also had a substantial swing in Gippsland East, to unseat the only incumbent independent in the Parliament. In Morwell, there was a very large swing to the National Party, and in the neighbouring seat of Narracan, there was a very large swing to the Liberals. Both were seats gained by those respective parties at the last election, so there may have been some degree of "sophomore surge" however there are a large number of timber workers and power station employees in those two electorates, and Labor's environment policies and general closeness to the Greens may have increased the swing in these seats.

In all seats contested by the Liberal Party, where the 2PP is Liberal vs Labor, the Liberal Party received a swing to it.

[Smid]

In other news, the Liberal lead in Bentleigh increased this afternoon, after about 4,000 pre-poll votes were counted. Bentleigh was the most marginal seat last night, and was the one the Labor Party was hoping would switch back in postals and pre-poll to give them a 44-44 split Parliament instead of a 45-43 lead to the Liberals.

Here is the Herald Sun report on the count in Bentleigh. Postal votes received thus far were counted last night, so Labor's only hope will be that there are a few bundles of votes in the wrong pile, to be found during the re-count in the week or so ahead. I think this is unlikely, although the exceptionally small swing reported in the Coatesville booth (or at Coatesville Uniting Church - Hughesdale South booth), which is very different to the general swing across that electorate, suggests to me that it's possible that a bundle of Liberal votes could be found in Labor's pile at that booth during the recount... will be interesting to see if that ends up being the case or if there is another reason the swing there was small...

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[Smid]

Brumby concedes.

[Smid]

Swing to (and against) the Liberal Party (on primary vote). Most of the swings against the Liberals in those country seats were electorates where there was a National Party incumbent. Under the Coalition agreement, the two parties would not stand candidates against the other party's incumbent MPs. The swing in Seymour was no doubt because of the high profile independent who ran there. I can't explain the swings against in the Bendigo seats, or Ripon, except maybe it's because of the Country Alliance who didn't field Lower House candidates last election.

[Smid]

Liberal Party Primary Vote:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the long run, perhaps not so dreadful. At least Victoria Labor will avoid the fate of certain comrades to the east. It's one thing to bounce back from a narrow defeat, quite another from... well...

[Smid]

In the long run, perhaps not so dreadful. At least Victoria Labor will avoid the fate of certain comrades to the east. It's one thing to bounce back from a narrow defeat, quite another from... well...

My thoughts exactly. If Labor had won this election, I think they would be in a similar shape to Queensland and New South Wales by next election.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Shock! Horror! Gasp! Sensationalist News Headline: Brumby Steps Down

It was the inevitable. Having lead the ALP to two defeats as leader - in 1996 and 2010, John Brumby has decided to stand down as leader of the Victorian Labor Party; though he remains tight lipped whether or not he'll quit politics entirely; as does Deputy Premier and Brumbyite Rob Hulls.

Nonetheless, this poses an interesting question for the direction of the Victorian ALP. Let the factional wars begin, I say!

As an expert on such matters (after all, I did predict Howard would win reelection in 2007 and John McCain would drop out after New Hampshire), the Right seems to be in a favourable position. Bill Shorten, Federal Member for Maribyrnong; as evidenced in June this year carries a lot of weight in the party - and judging from his increased media coverage since Saturday is working to install Water Minister Tim Holding as leader; the missing darling of the Right.

However, of all media reports I have seen - Health Minister Daniel Andrews of the Socialist Left is firming as favourite. His victory would be symbolic: the Left does have some influence; and would been seen as Labor reconnecting with its disillusioned, formerly working class, inner city base such as the seats of Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick who were benefactors of increased ALP influence. I mean, if Richard Wynne can call it a 'great victory', he must be right.

My prediction: Tim Holding/Jacinta Allen.

[Smid]

Postal votes received thus far were counted last night, so Labor's only hope will be that there are a few bundles of votes in the wrong pile, to be found during the re-count in the week or so ahead. I think this is unlikely, although the exceptionally small swing reported in the Coatesville booth (or at Coatesville Uniting Church - Hughesdale South booth), which is very different to the general swing across that electorate, suggests to me that it's possible that a bundle of Liberal votes could be found in Labor's pile at that booth during the recount... will be interesting to see if that ends up being the case or if there is another reason the swing there was small...

I was mistaken, it was actually the Bentleigh East booth, where the swing was small. I was correct about the bundle of 50 Liberal votes being stacked in Labor's pile, though - according to the rechecked results on the VEC website for Bentleigh, the Liberal vote at that booth is up by about fifty votes and the Labor vote is down by about fifty votes (the other couple of votes being probably ballots ruled formal on the night but subsequently ruled informal during the recount).

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Andrews to Contest Leadership Ballot, Friday

Seems as though the ALP is opting for a bloodless takeover, but Andrews?

[Smid]

Andrews to Contest Leadership Ballot, Friday

Seems as though the ALP is opting for a bloodless takeover, but Andrews?

Keeps their powder dry... means someone more talented won't be burnt by the series of bad polls that inevitably follow an electoral defeat. If they change him after a while for someone else, it means they think they can win the next election, otherwise they might keep him there, let him take the fall for the 2014 election defeat and then install someone more charismatic ready for the following election.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Keeps their powder dry... means someone more talented won't be burnt by the series of bad polls that inevitably follow an electoral defeat.

Talented + Victorian ALP = syntax error

Seems as though the ALP is going on the logic of: if Andrews can withstand the pressure of being Health Minister; he can withstand the pressure of being Opposition Leader. Interesting though, that of all the potential candidates, for both leader and deputy position nobody over the age of 40, thus far indicated interest. Must really want to initiate generational change for once.

If they change him after a while for someone else, it means they think they can win the next election

Sounds like something you guys did back in '01, and look how that turned out

otherwise they might keep him there, let him take the fall for the 2014 election defeat and then install someone more charismatic ready for the following election.

But if the ALP is in a position to reclaim government in 2014; (I mean, the Coalition's victory on Saturday was by no means a 'landslide' - and the ALP's task of winning back government is no difficult feet) then surely they would have opted for the best candidate, to lead them back to government right now. Or they could hope for what happened with the Libs and Baillieu. Andrews is the only viable candidate; the ALP has nobody else and hopes for the best!

[redcommander]

Yey the liberals are back in Eastern Australia state government! This can't be great news for Gillard's administration.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yey the liberals are back in Eastern Australia state government! This can't be great news for Gillard's administration.

It doesn't particularly matter. In 2004 the Liberals were re-elected, despite Labor being in power everywhere.

[Smid]

If they change him after a while for someone else, it means they think they can win the next election

Sounds like something you guys did back in '01, and look how that turned out

otherwise they might keep him there, let him take the fall for the 2014 election defeat and then install someone more charismatic ready for the following election.

But if the ALP is in a position to reclaim government in 2014; (I mean, the Coalition's victory on Saturday was by no means a 'landslide' - and the ALP's task of winning back government is no difficult feet) then surely they would have opted for the best candidate, to lead them back to government right now. Or they could hope for what happened with the Libs and Baillieu. Andrews is the only viable candidate; the ALP has nobody else and hopes for the best!

I was thinking more like how Nelson suffered in the polls and was then replaced by Turnbull, who performed well until the Gordon Gretch affair, which was when his polls started to slide. Andrews cops the bad polls for a year or eighteen months and then gets replaced by someone else. That'd be my thought, anyway. Likewise what Labor did following the 2004 election... Latham hung on for a short time, then got rolled by Beazley, who went nowhere in the polls. Then they replaced him with the (charismatic?) Rudd, who lifted them in the polls. As you note, the ALP is not in a terribly weak position. They certainly could win the next election, as you point out. Indeed, that's why I think it likely that Andrews will be replaced in 12-18 months, maybe longer, but probably keep him there about that long. I guess they could always wait a little longer... they installed Rudd a year before the election and gave him plenty of time to become settled with the electorate. It's unlikely they'd leave it until less than twelve months before the election, because they need time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yey the liberals are back in Eastern Australia state government! This can't be great news for Gillard's administration.

Not entirely...

It actually makes life much easier for Gillard - when Rudd couldn't get things done through the states - he had a hard time blaming anyone since they're kind of on the same team.

Opposition tends to make PM's lives easier, rather than harder, the key, is how you deal with it.

For example, did Rudd suffer a little with the Opposition federally preventing the passing of his cap and trade Bill? Yes... but when did he commit political suicide... when he gave up on the cap and trade Bill... everyone, almost to a fault says Rudd would a) still be PM and b) would have won re-election by a much bigger margin than Gillard did, had he stuck to his guns.

Howard was at his best, when he had nothing but wall-to-wall Labor state governments to deal with.

Having a few more obstructionist Coalition state governments around the table could make Gillard's life much easier.

[Smid]

Coalition wins a majority in both houses, 45-43 in the Lower House and 21-19 in the Upper House.