Victorian State Election 27/11/2010
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Platypus
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« on: October 09, 2010, 09:54:08 AM »

Smid is the expert, but he also has a role with a state MLC so I'm not sure how much posting he can do on the topic, so I;'ll get us started.

Labor will win, but maybe will need the support of the Greens who could win 1-3 seats in the inner city of Melbourne. Liberals will probably gain a few seats and should eject Labor from the upper house majority, but would be hugely fortunate to take the majority themselves. Roughly as fortunate as a Conservative majority government in Canada.

Anyway, campaign proper starts in a couple of weeks for an election on November 27 but the first bits and pieces are flowing.

Brumby: We'll build a new children's hospital in the Outer East of Melbourne, where a lot of swing seats are at the center of Melbourne's population!

Baillieu: Yeah, we'll do that too.

--------

Baillieu: So, how about that myki, huh?

Brumby: Myki is for the future. Problems, yes, but it's good to go now! Yay! And guess what? The Monash Freeway upgrade is ready to open fully just before the election!

--------

Ombudsman: The youth detention center at Parkville sucks.

Department of Human Services: We know, thats why we've recommended increased funding for it for ages

Minister: It's the yuuvs fault!

Baillieu: The minister can't blame this on the yuuvs! It's governmental ineptitude!

Yuuvs: *lighting a cig from a live electrical cable* Yeah, It's not my fault I caused thousands of dollars of damage to the common area!

Brumby: Now, now, it's still the best in Australia. Even if it does suck.

ACT: Eh, no, ours is better

NSW: Yeah, cos it was half funded with our money but now you won't let us put our yuuvs in there

ACT:
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2010, 02:59:04 PM »

Ombudsman: The youth detention center at Parkville sucks.

Department of Human Services: We know, thats why we've recommended increased funding for it for ages

Minister: It's the yuuvs fault!

Baillieu: The minister can't blame this on the yuuvs! It's governmental ineptitude!

Yuuvs: *lighting a cig from a live electrical cable* Yeah, It's not my fault I caused thousands of dollars of damage to the common area!

Brumby: Now, now, it's still the best in Australia. Even if it does suck.

ACT: Eh, no, ours is better

NSW: Yeah, cos it was half funded with our money but now you won't let us put our yuuvs in there
lolz.
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Smid
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2010, 10:42:59 PM »

Yeah, came on to create this thread. As Hugh mentions, I won't be commenting. Or I could comment, but you'd be getting Liberal spin in every post, and I don't think anyone wants spin/hackery on here, so I don't think I'll post anything other than possibly the occasional link to news stories.

Anyone who is interested, there's a blank map in the gallery that's simple to shade in paint - feel free to use it for predictions or results. I'm pretty sure I have uploaded some maps of the last election, too. If you're lucky, I may upload a 2002 map, and possibly even a notional 1999 map (redistribution was in 2000, Adam Carr has notional results hidden somewhere on his website, though).
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Smid
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2010, 11:18:15 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2010, 11:35:44 PM by Smid »

The one other thing I was going to add, but forgot to, was the Galaxy poll from the other day. I think I saw it mentioned on Friday, but yesterday there were more news stories about it, including some issues polling that came out of it.

I went looking for the actual poll online, but couldn't find it, so I can't provide a link.

Firstly, Primary Votes:
Liberal - 39%
National - 4%
          (Coalition - 43%)
Labor - 38%
Greens - 14%
(Others therefore must be 5%).

This gives a 2PP of (note that pollsters apportion preferences the same as at the previous election, rather than asking people during the poll who they'd support):
Labor - 51%
Coaltion - 49%

The Greens polling could potentially deliver them four seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote), according to The Age. The article has some clumsy wording, combining federal election results and polling figures (federal results - Greens win Melbourne and Richmond, Galaxy poll & uniform swing - Greens win all four).

In terms of Approval, the Premier has 48% satisfied, 46% dissatisfied and the Opposition Leader has 41% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.

With other leadership ratings, according to The Herald Sun:

Baillieu in touch with hardships of everyday life - 30% Agree
Brumby Stronger Leader and understands the needs of working Victorians - 50% Agree
Brumby and Trust - 38% Trust the Premier
Baillieu has a vision for Victoria - 34% Disagree
Brumby is arrogant - 38% Agree
Baillieu is arrogant - 36% Agree

(Unfortunately that's all straight out of the article, I can't find the original figures and therefore can't compare agree and disagree, nor compare the Premier and Opposition Leader on the same questions).

On the question of:

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The response was:
Deserve to be re-elected - 18%
Better than the alternative - 62%
Uncommitted - 20%

And finally, regarding issues:

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Roads - 47% ALP, 42% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
Water - 46% ALP, 43% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
Public Transport - 39% ALP, 48% Liberal, 13% Uncommitted
Health - 49% ALP, 41% Liberal, 10% Uncommitted
Education - 56% ALP, 36% Liberal, 8% Uncommitted
Law and Order - 42% ALP, 47% Liberal, 11% Uncommitted
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Smid
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2010, 12:37:00 AM »

Alright, rather than just sending you to the gallery, here are links (and a few images) of election results in Victoria:

Blank Map
Upper House Regions (Multi-Member Electorates, based on 11 Lower House Electorates)

The current numbers in the Upper House (Legislative Council) are:

19 ALP
1 DLP
3 Greens
2 Nationals
15 Liberals
(ie, 19 Labor, 17 Coalition, with the Greens and DLP holding the balance of power).

Eastern Metro Region - 3 Liberals, 2 Labor
Eastern Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 National
Northern Metro Region - 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green
Northern Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 National
Southern Metro Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Southeastern Metro Region - 3 Labor, 2 Liberals
Western Metro Region - 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens
Western Victoria Region - 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 DLP

Upper House Margin by electorate
The Upper House is PR-STV, and this map shows the winning party's primary vote, minus the second party's primary vote. I should get around to doing one just of winning party's primary vote. The VEC doesn't release figures for the Upper House by Lower House electorate, although it does provide the results in each booth for both the Upper and Lower House. I've compiled Lower House electorates using the booth results, which is where that map comes from. The Nationals are shaded Green because their party logo is yellow writing on a dark green background (so I've always thought of them as a dark green colour - and I think pre-Greens, that may have been their colour on election night graphs), but if I re-do the map, I think I'll shade them purple.

Upper House Primary Vote for the Liberal Party (note, some rural areas appear weak for the Liberals, however these are very conservative National Party seats, and not competitive for the Labor Party).

Upper House Primary Vote for Labor

Upper House Primary Vote for The Greens

And finally, Two Candidate Preferred in the Legislative Assembly:


The four inner city seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote) are ALP vs Greens, two seats (Rodney and Shepparton) are Nationals vs Liberals, one seat (Gippsland East) is Indpendent vs Liberal, and one seat (Mildura) is Nationals vs Independent.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2010, 02:46:16 PM »

I've never objected to partisan hack/spinster posts as long as they were clearly marked as such (whether in the post or in my opinion of the poster - though in the latter case I might try to make the poster understand what they are).
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Smid
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2010, 07:16:37 AM »

Here's the pendulum:

The Government holds these seats (figures are from last General Election, and represent 2PP margin, ie, 0.31 = 50.31% 2PP):

0.31   Mount Waverley
0.72   Gembrook
0.77   Forest Hill
1.97   Mitcham
2.01   Melbourne (vs Greens)
2.28   South Barwon
3.22   Frankston
3.55   Prahran
3.62   Mordialloc
3.64   Richmond (vs Greens)
3.65   Brunswick (vs Greens) - Loss of Government Majority
3.74   Burwood
4.35   Ripon
5.35   Bendigo East
6.32   Bentleigh
6.48   Eltham
6.53   Monbulk
6.55   Ballarat West
6.71   Carrum
6.81   Ballarat East
6.82   Seymore
7.95   Bellarine
7.99   Yan Yean
8.17   Macedon
8.33   Geelong
8.51   Northcote (vs Greens)
9.22   Albert Park*
9.23   Narre Warren North
10.43  Ivanhoe
10.56  Bendigo West
10.94  Narre Warren South
11.22  Niddrie
11.29  Cranbourne
11.70  Essendon
12.37  Oakleigh 
12.47  Tarneit
13.54  Melton
15.12  Bundoora
15.77  Mulgrave
17.93  Lara
18.67  Dandenong
19.41  Keilor
20.19  Yuroke
20.21  Altona*
20.27  Clayton
20.79  Mill Park
21.78  Lyndhurst
22.77  Pascoe Vale
24.25  Williamstown*
24.31  Derrimut
24.67  Footscray
25.29  Preston
25.27  Kororoit*
31.07  Thomastown
31.89  Broadmeadows

* means a by-election has subsequently been held in this electorate.

The Opposition holds these seats:

0.04   Ferntree Gully
0.35   Kilsyth
0.99   Hastings
2.12   Morwell (Nationals)
2.65   Narracan
2.78   Evelyn
2.89   Bayswater
4.01   Southwest Coast
5.22   Box Hill
5.22   Bass
6.08   Mildura (Nationals - vs Independent)
7.63   Caulfield
7.71   Benambra
8.12   Benambra
8.43   Bulleen
8.68   Sandringham
8.99   Warrandyte
9.38   Nepean
9.56   Kew
10.69  Polworth
10.93  Brighton
11.17  Scoresby
11.32  Malvern
11.85  Mornington
12.26  Hawthorn
15.81  Gippsland South (Nationals)
17.51  Benalla (Nationals)
21.76  Murray Valley (Nationals)
22.08  Lowan (Nationals)
23.40  Swan Hill (Nationals)
4.20  Rodney (Nationals vs Liberals)
16.67  Shepparton (Nationals vs Liberals)

Gippsland East is held by an independent 9.1% vs Liberals.

The four seats held Labor vs Greens are obviously higher when considered Labor vs Liberal, likewise, the two seats held National vs Liberal are safer if considered Nationals vs Labor. The Independent has a stronger win when rated as 2PP vs Nationals and an even stronger win when it's vs Labor.
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Smid
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2010, 07:31:27 AM »

And here are some historic maps for the 2002 and 1999 elections. There was a redistribution finalised in 2001 and the 1999 results are based on the notional figures calculated on the new (current) boundaries. One map for 1999 includes the by-elections held in Burwood and Benalla, while the other one does not. Both by-elections were won by Labor.

2002:


1999 (without by-elections):


1999 (with by-elections):


Same warning again that Green is for the National Party, not the Greens (I really should get around to fixing that sometime). I'm also pleased to note that I have included in the Key the link to the source data for the notional results).
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2010, 09:07:36 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2010, 08:38:01 PM by Smid »

As always, Antony Green's Website is the be all and end all of electoral information for this election.

EDIT: The Tally Room webiste is also exceptional. Definitely check both out.
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Smid
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2010, 08:37:10 PM »

The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2010, 03:15:43 AM »

The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.
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Platypus
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2010, 08:11:00 AM »

Liberals: Oh noes Brumby used your money to make ads saying we have good trains instead of building schools or sumthing

Labor: E:

Liberals: He could even have paid more nurses more money, like we did in the nin...never mind

Labor: E:

---------------

Labor: Hey great idea let's have a new police station in the outer east! Again! As every party promises at every election!

---------------

Liberals: We're going to save the W-class trams!

Motorists: Oh cool they're heritage and stuff

Public transport users: Sure, but while you're at it, want to make them tolerable to ride in?

Liberals: Sure we'll fit them out with airco! The windows won't open any more and the only charm they ever had for actual passengers will be lost, but they look good to the people in the cars driving past them when they're broken down on St. Kilda Road!

---------------

Labor: You might theink we're a bit old in the tooth and boring, but what about THIS BRAND NEW STUDIO FOR CHANNEL NINE!

Channel Nine: Now we can stop pretending we were going to shift production of the Eddie Maguire TV shows from Melbourne to Adelaide or Sydney!

Liberals: Hey wait so doesn't that mean that Studio City at Docklands won't be used for films any more?

Labor: yeah but other than Ghost Rider what else has been filmed there anyway?

Greens: Australian Films! Now they'll have no studio in the Docklands!

Liberals: Yeah but nobody goes to Australian movies anyway

Labor: Yeah and nobody goes to the Docklands either. Well town-planned, Liberals.

Liberals: E:
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Platypus
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2010, 09:00:08 AM »

The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.

How about the follow-up? Personally, I think it's worse but I can understand a different view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRoIEeoNxQ
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Smid
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2010, 12:42:23 AM »

The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria
LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.

How about the follow-up? Personally, I think it's worse but I can understand a different view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRoIEeoNxQ

Didn't watch it here, but I suspect it's the Little Girl one that showed up in my inbox the other day. I rather liked it - it emphasises the problems the current government has failed to address, points out that they've done nothing and that there's the ability to change things... They remind me of the "Re-Pete" ads they ran up in Queensland a few elections back, which didn't win us the election, but certainly took the shine off the government, leading to a decline in their polls following the election. I don't have them on YouTube, but I do have that series on my computer in mp3 format, or wmv format, or whatever format they're in. The versions of those ads I have aren't the original version that were run on the tv (they don't have the authorised by at the end, and finish by saying something about "Beattie Bulls***). I'll have to show them to you sometime.

We should catch up for coffee again sometime.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2010, 04:03:37 AM »

Liberals: We're going to save the W-class trams!

Motorists: Oh cool they're heritage and stuff

Public transport users: Sure, but while you're at it, want to make them tolerable to ride in?

Liberals: Sure we'll fit them out with airco! The windows won't open any more and the only charm they ever had for actual passengers will be lost, but they look good to the people in the cars driving past them when they're broken down on St. Kilda Road!
Death to airconditioned public transport.
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I did see this one... Grin
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Smid
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2010, 11:41:02 PM »

The Age published a Nielsen poll, the poll was taken on Wednesday and Thursday. The main figures were published on Saturday, but the link is for an article from today, which I've copied here for you:

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Accompanying the article was a table:

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2010, 12:58:43 AM »

There's nothing terribly bad in those internals for the ALP.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2010, 05:24:32 PM »

Hmmm Libs preferencing Greens last in EVERY LA seat...
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Smid
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2010, 09:02:11 PM »

A recent Newspoll has the 2PP as 51-49 to Labor (changed from 52-48 in the previous Newspoll). Two ACNielson polls released over the same time frame shows 52-48 to Labor (changed from 51-49). The Newspoll broke down to the following primary vote:

Liberal - 39%
Nationals - 5%
     (Coalition - 44%)
Labor - 37%
Greens - 14% (as a side note, this figure is down from 19%)
Others - 5%

A link I found in a news article showed some issues polling and personality polling for the leaders and parties, which seems to be from the same Newspoll (but with additional comparison to previous polls taken just before other elections).

Here's a news story from today's Herald Sun. I don't know how accurate it is - it's always interesting to hear government MPs talking down their chances, especially when polls consistently have them leading. In Australia, people certainly like to support the under-dog, which can lead to some quite ludicrous claims at times (such as Queensland Premier Peter Beattie claiming to be the under-dog when polls had him sitting at 54% and he ended up winning 2/3rds of the seats in Parliament). Some of this may be to try to limit a protest vote against the government, although some of it may be accurate. I'm sure you can all make your own minds up.

I also heard the other day that a Morgan Poll had the Greens winning the four inner-city seats. I was of the impression his methodology involved monkies and dart boards, but according to this it was a sample of 276 voters across the four electorates... of course, that means he probably only interviewed about 70 people in each electorate...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2010, 09:17:24 PM »

A recent Newspoll has the 2PP as 51-49 to Labor (changed from 52-48 in the previous Newspoll). Two ACNielson polls released over the same time frame shows 52-48 to Labor (changed from 51-49). The Newspoll broke down to the following primary vote:

Liberal - 39%
Nationals - 5%
     (Coalition - 44%)
Labor - 37%
Greens - 14% (as a side note, this figure is down from 19%)
Others - 5%

A link I found in a news article showed some issues polling and personality polling for the leaders and parties, which seems to be from the same Newspoll (but with additional comparison to previous polls taken just before other elections).

Here's a news story from today's Herald Sun. I don't know how accurate it is - it's always interesting to hear government MPs talking down their chances, especially when polls consistently have them leading. In Australia, people certainly like to support the under-dog, which can lead to some quite ludicrous claims at times (such as Queensland Premier Peter Beattie claiming to be the under-dog when polls had him sitting at 54% and he ended up winning 2/3rds of the seats in Parliament). Some of this may be to try to limit a protest vote against the government, although some of it may be accurate. I'm sure you can all make your own minds up.

I also heard the other day that a Morgan Poll had the Greens winning the four inner-city seats. I was of the impression his methodology involved monkies and dart boards, but according to this it was a sample of 276 voters across the four electorates... of course, that means he probably only interviewed about 70 people in each electorate...

Morgan Polls are notorious for being completely off the mark.
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Platypus
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2010, 10:15:42 PM »

http://alpvictoria.com.au/labortv/

The ALP have one of the best online presences I've come across in any election. It gets that 80% of the people who actually watch videos on its website will be the party faithful, so it reinforces policy announcements but focusses on reminding people of the basic Labor ethos, and the 'good character' of the party's politicians. It's funny enough but serious enough.

Of the other 20%, 15% will have already made up their mind to vote for the Liberals and 5% just like Corinne Grant.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2010, 11:45:28 PM »

http://alpvictoria.com.au/labortv/

The ALP have one of the best online presences I've come across in any election. It gets that 80% of the people who actually watch videos on its website will be the party faithful, so it reinforces policy announcements but focusses on reminding people of the basic Labor ethos, and the 'good character' of the party's politicians. It's funny enough but serious enough.

Of the other 20%, 15% will have already made up their mind to vote for the Liberals and 5% just like Corinne Grant.


...and how could you not?!
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2010, 04:12:20 AM »

Am I the only on who is reminded of Bush's infamous Horton ad with the Libs latest plug? Perhaps if Baillieu were running a conistent campaign, it could have been more effective. Then again ALP is just as bad. You know it's bad when they're resorting to recycled advertisements from 2006.
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Smid
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« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2010, 12:50:59 AM »

A new poll just out in the Herald Sun seems fairly extensive - 9,218 people were polled, and in the seats that were polled, between 222 and 580 people were polled.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2010, 06:13:40 AM »

I'm honestly stunned... I was not expecting this... this isn't by any real estimation a 'bad' government, the "11 years factor" clearly was at work.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/27/3078370.htm
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