Victorian State Election 27/11/2010

[Platypus]

Smid is the expert, but he also has a role with a state MLC so I'm not sure how much posting he can do on the topic, so I;'ll get us started.

Labor will win, but maybe will need the support of the Greens who could win 1-3 seats in the inner city of Melbourne. Liberals will probably gain a few seats and should eject Labor from the upper house majority, but would be hugely fortunate to take the majority themselves. Roughly as fortunate as a Conservative majority government in Canada.

Anyway, campaign proper starts in a couple of weeks for an election on November 27 but the first bits and pieces are flowing.

Brumby: We'll build a new children's hospital in the Outer East of Melbourne, where a lot of swing seats are at the center of Melbourne's population!

Baillieu: Yeah, we'll do that too.

--------

Baillieu: So, how about that myki, huh?

Brumby: Myki is for the future. Problems, yes, but it's good to go now! Yay! And guess what? The Monash Freeway upgrade is ready to open fully just before the election!

--------

Ombudsman: The youth detention center at Parkville sucks.

Department of Human Services: We know, thats why we've recommended increased funding for it for ages

Minister: It's the yuuvs fault!

Baillieu: The minister can't blame this on the yuuvs! It's governmental ineptitude!

Yuuvs: *lighting a cig from a live electrical cable* Yeah, It's not my fault I caused thousands of dollars of damage to the common area!

Brumby: Now, now, it's still the best in Australia. Even if it does suck.

ACT: Eh, no, ours is better

NSW: Yeah, cos it was half funded with our money but now you won't let us put our yuuvs in there

ACT:

[Platypus]

Liberals: Oh noes Brumby used your money to make ads saying we have good trains instead of building schools or sumthing

Labor: E:

Liberals: He could even have paid more nurses more money, like we did in the nin...never mind

Labor: E:

---------------

Labor: Hey great idea let's have a new police station in the outer east! Again! As every party promises at every election!

---------------

Liberals: We're going to save the W-class trams!

Motorists: Oh cool they're heritage and stuff

Public transport users: Sure, but while you're at it, want to make them tolerable to ride in?

Liberals: Sure we'll fit them out with airco! The windows won't open any more and the only charm they ever had for actual passengers will be lost, but they look good to the people in the cars driving past them when they're broken down on St. Kilda Road!

---------------

Labor: You might theink we're a bit old in the tooth and boring, but what about THIS BRAND NEW STUDIO FOR CHANNEL NINE!

Channel Nine: Now we can stop pretending we were going to shift production of the Eddie Maguire TV shows from Melbourne to Adelaide or Sydney!

Liberals: Hey wait so doesn't that mean that Studio City at Docklands won't be used for films any more?

Labor: yeah but other than Ghost Rider what else has been filmed there anyway?

Greens: Australian Films! Now they'll have no studio in the Docklands!

Liberals: Yeah but nobody goes to Australian movies anyway

Labor: Yeah and nobody goes to the Docklands either. Well town-planned, Liberals.

Liberals: E:

[Platypus]

The Coalition released an ad last night. It's up on YouTube on the party's official channel thing, so no doubt other ads will pop up there, too, when they're released. Anyway, if anyone's interested, I'll post it here (and also in the election ads thread, wherever that's gone).

http://www.youtube.com/user/LiberalVictoria

LOL!!!! That is one of the most pathetic election ad's I've ever seen.

How about the follow-up? Personally, I think it's worse but I can understand a different view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJRoIEeoNxQ

[Platypus]

http://alpvictoria.com.au/labortv/

The ALP have one of the best online presences I've come across in any election. It gets that 80% of the people who actually watch videos on its website will be the party faithful, so it reinforces policy announcements but focusses on reminding people of the basic Labor ethos, and the 'good character' of the party's politicians. It's funny enough but serious enough.

Of the other 20%, 15% will have already made up their mind to vote for the Liberals and 5% just like Corinne Grant.

[Platypus]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/guide/seatsindoubt.htm

Seats in Doubt, according to the ABC computer, ALP leading in all of them:

Albert Park (my electorate. Good Liberal candidate, bad-esque ALP member, and big votes for the Greens and an Independent. Most notably, however, less than 60% of the enrollment voted yesterday.)

Ballarat East (Regional Victoria held up well for Labor, especially the areas west of Melbourne. This is largely because the Liberal government in the 1990s was absolutely horrible to these areas and the ALP has spent a lot of money rectifying that.)

Eltham (Outer Eastern Melbourne, so a general swing to the Libs but maybe not enough)

Macedon (Shouldn't be this close, but as with Narre Warren North, full of 'yeah, but what have you done for me today?? type bogans)

Monbulk (See Eltham)

Narre Warren North (Outer, outer suburban Southeast. Pretty much just boring suburbia full of malcontents and a rapidly rising population)

And then there's Bentleigh, which the ALP says is in doubt but the ABC computer has as a Liberal gain. It's more or less like Eltham and Monbulk, but a bit closer in. Still a bit of counting to go, but this is the only one of the close seats the Libs lead in and probably the only one they'll win...but they only need one.