HI: Rasmussen: Inouye (D) by 13

[cinyc]

HI Senate: Rasmussen
Dan Inouye (D)(i)         -  53%
Cam Cavasso (R)          -  40%
Some other candidate  - 3%
Not sure                       - 4%

October 13; 500 LV; MoE +/-4.5
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Closer than I thought, but Inouye will undoubtedly win reelection.

[cinyc]

Inouye's the safest Democrat this year. There's something wrong here.

Leahy and Schumer are safer.

[cinyc]

How is there so much disparity between the Rasmussen poll and the PPP poll?

Hawaiian polling always seems to be erratic, especially when done by Haoles from the the mainland.  Members of certain groups (Japanese-American women, in particular) are often very reticent to tell pollsters how they will vote.

[cinyc]

We need PPP to confirm if this is indeed true. That would be a bigger upset than Scott Brown.

It would be the greatest upset in history.

Inouye winning by 13 would not really be an upset. It would just be a big win in a Republican election cycle.

Inouye losing would be a huge upset - he's been in Congress since Hawaii became a state in 1959, first in the House, then the Senate.  It's not going to happen, though.

[cinyc]

You mean 85-year-old Mrs. Hashimoto, who is reluctant to tell even a real live stranger over the phone who she's going to vote for, is even more reluctant to tell an automated robot voice? Shocker.

Yes.  As I've said on many a Hawaii poll thread, beware of Hawaiian polls from mainland pollsters.  They simply don't get that a significant portion of the population - generally women of Japanese-Hawaiian descent - are reluctant to tell pollsters anything.