PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Sam Spade]

stickied as daily tracking - please update here.

[Sam Spade]

Title of thread has been modified to warn people not to enter the poll again until 19th drops off - otherwise the database will become Muhlenberg-centric.

[Sam Spade]

Day 5 Muhlenberg Tracker

Toomey: 46%(+1)
Sestak: 43%(+1)

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/

This can be entered in the polling database.  Nothing else until 23rd drops off.

[Sam Spade]

I never really posted this on the forum, except privately to Keystone Phil when he asked a couple of weeks ago.

PA is, at least historically, a pretty easy state to figure out.  My guess has long since been on this race that it'll end up having some slight (1%-5%) generic Democratic lean to the generic ballot writ large, as PA has had for many moons, b/c the candidates strike me as so generic.  Yes, they do, sorry Dems.

In other words, if the generic ballot is 10% GOP, Toomey will win by 4% to 9%, and probably closer to 4% just because there's less soft Dem swingability in PA than in other places (like OH say).

We'll see whether I'm right in a week.