PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Umengus]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

[Umengus]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

[Umengus]

Toomey stays the favourite because dems are overrepresented in polls like PPP and Mulhenberg. But I agree with Rasmussen: sestak has cut the toomey lead in solidifying his base.

The 2 polls are actually miles apart when it comes to party registration:

Muhlenberg has 49% Republicans and 46% Democrats.

PPP has 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans.

By average it's 47% Democrats and 45% Republicans. While the Exit Poll will certainly show less Democrats and Republicans and more Independents, the 2% average lead for the Democrats should be OK, also in the Exit Poll.

The first muhlenberg had 46-46. Change the party id and, oh surprise !, the final result is changed...

Problem for dems is that indep will vote in large margin for toomey. Hence, overpolling dems and underpolling ind give a fake advantage to Sestak, even if the gap between dems and rep is correct.

What makes you think is oversampling of Dems??  The Democrats have a rather large registration advantage in PA (51-37 at the end of 09).  Even if you take into consideration party id not always matching registration, and stronger GOP turnout than Democratic turnout (Muhlenberg btw asks registration not ID) I don't see how you can really say the party id in the polls is off.

DO you think that 46 % of the voters will be democrats ?

[Umengus]

and +4 for toomey in the last cnn-Time poll (with a 13 % lead amongst independents)

[Umengus]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/track29.pdf



Sample is Dem + 2  (47/45) which certainly makes a bit more sense than some of the other crap thrown around (my guess is it will be Dem with an advantage of 2-4 on Election Day)

it's just technical. And if Toomey leads again with dem +2, it's good for him.

[Umengus]

Okay, maybe I won't take them.

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4

[Umengus]

Okay, maybe I won't take them.

If Sestak is still behind with that sample... well... you know... it doesn't look too good.

It's a reason why I prefer "Party id reweighting" and so Rasmussen. The move showed by Muhlenberg doesn't exist inr reality. It's just due to the party id sample.

10/28: R+5
10/31: D +4

Wow - this poll bounces around so much you'd almost think it was some tiny sample poll run by a bunch of University students or something...

Oh wait... that's exactly what it is....

But seriously...

In 2008 actual turnout in Pennsylvania was about 44/37 to the Dem side in terms of party ID. (ie Dems +7)

This poll has it Dems +4, so in terms of turnout, things have declined by only 3% for the Dems versus 2008.

Does this seem reasonable to you?

no but every dems say that the PA dem party has a very strong GOTV effort. We will see...

2006: exit poll: D:43 % R: 38 % I: 19 % (D +5)

if 2010 = 2006 , where is the wave ?

[Umengus]

Game over ?

[Umengus]

Was this their final poll ?

I read that it was on Politicalwire earlier.

Guess I have to enter this too then ...

Meh, so much work.

thanks for your work. especially today.