PA: Muhlenberg/MC: Sestak 40/Toomey 48 (10/24-10/27) DO NOT ENTER UNTIL 27 DROPS

[Keystone Phil]

Best part of the poll: 49% claim to have voted for McCain while only 43% voted for Obama. 

[Keystone Phil]

The two debates are still to come, correct? Who is considered the strongest of the two in debates? They could decide who wins.

There is one tonight here in Philly and another Friday night in Pittsburgh. The problem with tonight's debate for anyone interested in Southeast PA interested the race? It's on during the Phillies game. 

[Keystone Phil]

Didn't someone here post on another thread that the DSCC stopped spending money in PA?  I don't get it.......if they are this close, why would they stop?

The other day, I said the DCCC (the House campaign committee) canceled their ad buy in Philadelphia (if that's what you're getting at).

The DSCC did scale back an ad buy a few weeks ago though.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/

[Keystone Phil]

If I were Sestak, I would definitely be running Toomey = Santorum ads.

He already did that.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey wasn't strong on personality but he's always strong on name. That means a lot more here so he was clearly a strong candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Seriously? Citation needed.

Come on. When you're a Casey in Pennsylvania, it's like being a Kennedy in Massachusetts.

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He was strong because he gets to sit back, do nothing and always win (except 2002 when he wasn't liberal enough for the Democratic electorate) rather easily. Replace him with some stellar candidate that didn't have a great name and you'd see those big victories in many areas disappear.

[Keystone Phil]

Are you sure those are new numbers? It looks like they just didn't update yet since the Gubernatorial race numbers are the same.

[Keystone Phil]

The magic of twitter:

"Mcall/Muhlenberg tracker poll tonight: #pasen still locked at 43percent each"

http://twitter.com/DCMorningCall/status/28366922254

Nice

[Keystone Phil]

I'm still shaking my head at this one. What happened here? Toomey seemed to have anywhere from a 4-10 point lead for half a year. This one seems more and more like a toss-up, where I had assumed it would be a GOP pick-up.

1) Most importantly, the PA democratic electorate is finally coming home (as is the case with everywhere in the US, and in PA dem's outnumber republicans in registration).  If the election happened on any given day in August or September, of course without people knowing, Toomey would have won handily.  Obviously no major election is unknown to the electorate, so this is completely unrealistic.  I think that most voters in PA, and every other state for that matter, aren't as engaged as the people who use DailyKos, RedState, USElectionAtlas, etc. and only start getting involved in the last month.
2) Sestak is a closer.  He showed it quite well in May with the primary.  He was down pretty big early, and had the primary happened on any given day before April, Specter would have won handily.
3) PA is very blue collar, and I think a lot of voters still use television, radio, and even newspapers as their primary source of information (where as you and others on this forum probably use liberal/conservative blogs or news websites).  I am inclined to believe the electorate in PA is a bit more influenced by the media-based advertising machine.

Agreed.  I never saw this race winding up as a solid Toomey win.  Quite simply the math just doesn't allow for that.  Someone as far right to the right as Toomey doesn't have a chance in hell at suburban Philly.  Without suburban Philly you don't give yourself much room for error and give yourself no chance to win anything other than a nail biter.   

The real question is can Sestak run up the margins in suburban Philly that make it virtually impossible for Toomey to overcome elsewhere in the state? or is Toomey able to hold down the margins in suburban Philly enough to give him the chance to run up the margins elsewhere to win?

Well the interesting thing is Sestak did remarkably well with conservative democratic voters in the Primary.

Specter has never been popular out west and in the rural areas.

 

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Polls didn't have Williams running fourth; he was running in second place for most of the race. He finished third which was surprising.

The theory that he was in it just to help Specter isn't really looney. Many respected people believe that since Williams and Specter have been very close and Williams is a big deal within the establishment.

[Keystone Phil]

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

I was right behind him. Good showing for Toomey, eh? 

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The machine is very powerful but of course Brady is going to say he can deliver the votes. We'll see what happens on November 2nd.

[Keystone Phil]

Frankly, second place was Wagner, regardless of what the polls said.  I voted Hoeffel (when I was registered in PA) but I believe that for those PA'ians who did not want to vote for Onorato (e.g. a very good, and very liberal friend of mine) the second choice was Wagner as it was generally believed that he had the best chance of beating Onorato (and I say "beating" since Onorato is considered to be a conservative DEM and was not first choice among liberals like myself even though he presented the best chance in beating Corbett).

Wagner is far more conservative but had a better shot at beating Corbett.

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I just tend to think most people cite "conspiracy theorists" in a negative way. Either way, it isn't crazy to think that William ran for other reasons.

So, I saw Bob Brady on Hardball yesterday and he seemed quite confident about his ability to get Philly votes in huge amounts, therefore being able to win it for Sestak.

I was right behind him. Good showing for Toomey, eh? 

Yeah, can't say I expected all the Toomey signs. And your guys chant and the boos in response drowned out the panel which was pretty funny.

We're very organized. 

[Keystone Phil]

And then there were nine...

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Yeah, I think the numbers are supposed to be reversed.

[Keystone Phil]

I thought Catholics were a majority in PA? The Muhlenberg poll has 49% of the electorate as Protestant and 33% as Catholics, as of the day three pdf.

Have they released the day 4 pdf yet?

I can't find it, only day 3 is on Muhlenberg's website.  It is always so hard to find them.

I waisted an hour myself looking for it.

It's on the right hand side of their Politics page but it seems like their Twitter account is updated before the website.

[Keystone Phil]

Guys, who cares?

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey up 47% to 42%.

And then, my friends, there were eight...

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I don't know what's up tonight. 

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey - 48%
Sestak - 40%

And then there were seven...

[Keystone Phil]

It's been confirmed: 48% to 40%

[Keystone Phil]

It's been confirmed: 48% to 40%

Any idea what the 46-45 Toomey mention vote Dems out is referring to?

No idea. Maybe one of my fellow Republicans just trying to give us a heart attack.    Multiple sources confirmed the 48% to 40% result though.

[Keystone Phil]

Also worth noting: this is a net gain of eleven points for Toomey in just one week in this poll.

[Keystone Phil]

Anything for today yet? I refuse to have anything to do with Twitter.

Nothing yet. I keep checking Twitter and trying to find out if anyone else knows but I'm not seeing/hearing anything new.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey - 46%
Sestak - 41%

Then there were six...

[Keystone Phil]

F+M has Toomey up by 7% but the amount of undecideds seems particularly ridiculous.

http://articles.lancasteronline.com/local/4/305240

That's typical for F&M. I think the margin is about right though. It's probably a four to six point Toomey lead.

[Keystone Phil]

Anything yet?

Nope. I post once I get word.