WV: Rasmussen: Raese (R) now 7 points ahead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: West Virginia Senator (Special) by Rasmussen on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 50%, I: 2%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Torie]

It looks more and more that it is GOP +9 - and that's it - one short.

[Eraserhead]

It looks more and more that it is GOP +9 - and that's it - one short.

I'm not sure that I agree with that... probably time to flip this one over again though.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It looks more and more that it is GOP +9 - and that's it - one short.

not sure how you're calculating that, are you just assuming the absolute range is +6-12 and splitting the difference?  I think the difference between +7 and +11 is a swing of only five points and there is still two weeks to go.  

 

[Torie]

It looks more and more that it is GOP +9 - and that's it - one short.

not sure how you're calculating that, are you just assuming the absolute range is +6-12 and splitting the difference?  I think the difference between +7 and +11 is a swing of only five points and there is still two weeks to go.  

 

No, I am just counting the races up one by one on my digits, until I hit the West coast and stop counting. It is my gut of how things will go, after examining the polls, etc.

[Hash]

Manchin is a dumbass.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

It looks more and more that it is GOP +9 - and that's it - one short.

not sure how you're calculating that, are you just assuming the absolute range is +6-12 and splitting the difference?  I think the difference between +7 and +11 is a swing of only five points and there is still two weeks to go.  

 

No, I am just counting the races up one by one on my digits, until I hit the West coast and stop counting. It is my gut of how things will go, after examining the polls, etc.

I'm hoping your gut is right , I've been disheartened by the latest polls.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is somewhat amusing that after all a very popular Governor have such a great problem with an obvious carpetbagger.

Yes, Manchin is such an idiot.

[Meeker]

This is somewhat amusing that after all a very popular Governor have such a great problem with an obvious carpetbagger.

Yes, Manchin is such an idiot.

The President is black, you see.

[Hash]

This is somewhat amusing that after all a very popular Governor have such a great problem with an obvious carpetbagger.

Yes, Manchin is such an idiot.

This would have been like Aecio Neves failing to win a seat in the Brazilian Senate this year. As you can see, Manchin is an epic fail and a retard.

[DrScholl]

I'm still thinking that this one is closer than Rasmussen has it, 43% is remarkably low for Manchin and he has been hitting Raese hard on the outsider angle.

[SvenssonRS]

This is somewhat amusing that after all a very popular Governor have such a great problem with an obvious carpetbagger.

Yes, Manchin is such an idiot.

The President is black, you see.

Fail of the Week: Saying that the only reason Republicans are gaining is because the President is black. Couldn't be, y'know, because he's a terrible president, could it?

[Brittain33]

Couldn't be, y'know, because he's a terrible president, could it?

West Virginia isn't exactly swinging against him from his 2008 performance in the state, when he didn't have an economic record to run on and yet he still did extraordinarily poorly for a Democrat who was otherwise romping.

[King]

With those favorable ratings Joe Manchin and Lincoln Chaffee bring new meaning to the term "lovable losers"

[SPQR]

This is somewhat amusing that after all a very popular Governor have such a great problem with an obvious carpetbagger.

Yes, Manchin is such an idiot.

The President is black, you see.

Ahhh, the favorite tactic of an Obama-bot lefty....ignore the President's dismal record, and accuse his opponents of racism. How original, and...uh...progressive of you.

You know,when the same state in 2 years first is one of the couple out of 50 swinging AGAINST the Democrats in a landslide victory,and then is voting against one of the country's most liked governors,then you begin to have suspects.

[Brittain33]

Also, people used to jump at the chance to mention that the previous holder of this seat was a leader in the KKK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed they did. That came across as bitter too.

---

I thought in 2008 - and still do - that the issue in WV and so in isn't so much Obama's 'race' from an American viewpoint, as his exotic otherness. As I'm basing this on places that I know well (and have lived in and currently live very near) rather than first-hand knowledge of attitudes towards 'people from off' (that was the term used in the villages I grew up in; says a lot doesn't it) in WV itself, I may be very wrong, obviously.

Of course that's almost beside point; what President (of any party or background) would be popular in WV right now, anyway? I suppose hypothetical President Clinton II given the extent that she ended being adopted by white workers in the way that Obama was by blacks, but anyone else? Fair enough that it's probably a bit worse in the case of Obama, but that isn't entirely because he has the name and looks that he does.

Manchin has never won a genuinely competitive statewide election or primary, btw.

[Vepres]

 He never made much of an effort to court coal workers (or whatever you call them). His relatively strong environmental rhetoric thus seemed to be codeword for "anti-coal" to many of these people, I would imagine, though I would be naive to say race had no part.

As for Manchin, it is a Republican year and state-level popularity doesn't really seem to often translate into increased electability to national office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He never made much of an effort to court coal workers (or whatever you call them). His relatively strong environmental rhetoric thus seemed to be codeword for "anti-coal" to many of these people, I would imagine, though I would be naive to say race had no part.

Miners! The usual word is miners! But there aren't as many of them as there used to be (to risk understatement) and precious little evidence that many vote on environmental issues. Even if he does lose, Manchin will almost certainly win the bulk of the coalfield counties.

Edit: in 2006-2008, about 4% of WV's workforce was in mining.

[memphis]

Just because not a lot of people work in an industry doesn't mean that people don't perceive it to be important. FedEx is a huge company where I live. I don't work for them, but I want both the company and its employees to do well because it's important to the local economy. This is doubly true in a place like WV, where there's a cultural and historic connection to coal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just because not a lot of people work in an industry doesn't mean that people don't perceive it to be important. FedEx is a huge company where I live. I don't work for them, but I want both the company and its employees to do well because it's important to the local economy. This is doubly true in a place like WV, where there's a cultural and historic connection to coal.

Yeah, thanks for telling me that. I had absolutely no idea that areas built because of coal mining tend to remain mining communities in outlook like after the mines have shut.

[memphis]

Just because not a lot of people work in an industry doesn't mean that people don't perceive it to be important. FedEx is a huge company where I live. I don't work for them, but I want both the company and its employees to do well because it's important to the local economy. This is doubly true in a place like WV, where there's a cultural and historic connection to coal.

Yeah, thanks for telling me that. I had absolutely no idea that areas built because of coal mining tend to remain mining communities in outlook like after the mines have shut.

Defensive much?