Which pollster will the data support?

[zorkpolitics]

There is consistently a great differential between Rasmussen and PPP polls.  
In 12 days we get actual data and find out who is fantasizing and who is accurate:

NC-Sen Ras: Burr +14
NC-Sen PPP: Burr +8

PA-Sen Ras: Toomey +10
PA-Sen PPP: Sestak +1

WV-Sen Ras: Raese +7
WV-Sen PPP: Manchin +3

NV-Sen Ras: Angle +3
NV-Sen PPP: Reid +2

NV-Gov Ras: Sandoval +19
NV-Gov PPP: Sandoval +9

CO-Gov Ras: Hickenlooper +4
CO-Gov PPP: Hickenlooper +14

PA-Gov Ras: Corbett +14
PA-Gov PPP: Corbett +2

IL-Gov Ras: Brady +8
IL-Gov PPP: Brady +1

FL-Gov Ras: Scott +6
FL-Gov PPP: Sink +5

[SvenssonRS]

Rasmussen. Ever since PPP went to work for Daily Kos, they've sucked.

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen. Ever since PPP went to work for Daily Kos, they've sucked.

How do you know?

PPP has been one of the best pollsters when it comes to actual election results this year. Rasmussen has mostly been too afraid to poll in the last week or so before an election.

[Rowan]

They are probably each going in the field again before the election so there's no use in comparing them now.

[DrScholl]

PPP, as mentioned, they've had the most accurate results. Rasmussen has been very funny lately, namely their Hawaii Senate poll.

[Vepres]

Rasmussen. Ever since PPP went to work for Daily Kos, they've sucked.

How do you know?

PPP has been one of the best pollsters when it comes to actual election results this year. Rasmussen has mostly been too afraid to poll in the last week or so before an election.

However, primary polling is different from general election polling.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Wait until the last batch of polls before comparing them.

[Whacker77]

I'm not choosing between either, but I'll say this.  Earlier this year, Nate Silver went after Rasmussen.  I'm not sure what the beef was all about, but Rasmussen has nailed the last two national presidential results.  With his reams of data, I think he should be taken seriously.

In the case of PPP, they've done pretty darn well this year.  I think they were the first to show Feingold and Manchin in trouble and actually losing.  They have become the pollster of Kos and even Nate Silver noted they have succumb to what he calls the "house effect".  Doesn't mean they're wrong though.

I'll be interested to see how they do in Kentucky tommorrow.  Mason Dixon is pretty damn good and their results matched Rasmussen.  If they show the race tied or with Conway ahead by a point or so, then maybe there is something to what Nate Silver has noticed.  That's my view anyway.

[Vepres]

Nate Silver has also said some things about PPP recently, basically along the lines of that there might be a somewhat larger house effect (pro-Dem) lately.

[feeblepizza]

Rasmussen - the most reliable polling in the world.

[Niemeyerite]

Rasmussen PPP- the most reliable polling in the world.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

actually, RCP's average has a pretty good track record.

[King]

SurveyUSA.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The early evidence, especially the early voting and Absentee votes requested and returned in NC, NV and PA suggest Rasmussen might be, especially if this signifies massive GOP turnout overall. We won't know whether this trends together or whether a strong GOP advantage in early vote means a smaller advantage then the early vote on election day like we saw when the Dems nominated the early vote.

We really shouldn't compare till the final week of polling is out.

[Eraserhead]

POLLSTER FIGHT!!!!!!!111

I'll see you at 3 PM out by the flagpole!

[Whacker77]

I know Nate Silver would kill me for doing it this way, but the difference between the two polls in around 8 points on average.  Quite the difference.

[Mr. Morden]

They are probably each going in the field again before the election so there's no use in comparing them now.

Yes.  Like I said here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126446.msg2690524#msg2690524

polls often converge towards the same answer at the end of the race, and since the polls taken in the last week are the ones that people use to measure "pollster accuracy", we have no real way of ever measuring "who was right" for the polls taken weeks and months before the election.  Unfortunately, we have no way of checking the accuracy of polls, except the ones taken right before the election.

[Phony Moderate]

I think the wisest thing to do in any election cycle is to average all the poll numbers out (i.e. RCP).