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Author Topic: Isn't an increasingly polarized and homogeneous map boring ?  (Read 3042 times)
big bad fab
filliatre
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« on: October 22, 2010, 03:46:31 am »

Yeah, with 2010, the US electoral map will become even more polarized:

California will probably be entirely Dem,
Southern or Western Democrats will be defeated, like Lincoln or in TN or WY,
NE Republicans will lose,
etc.

So, gubernatorial and senatorial maps will be increasingly in line with the presidential map, for the first time since... ? a long time anyway.

Is it a sign of bigger polarization ?
Polarization of political apparatuses or of voters ?
Or a sign of a more "nationalized" public opinion, because of media influence ?

How can you explain this strong trend ?
And don't you think it's boring.... ?
(apart from the fact that many Dems will be happy a "traitor" like Lincoln is defeated)
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Lafayette53
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2010, 12:15:37 pm »

Yeah, with 2010, the US electoral map will become even more polarized:

California will probably be entirely Dem,
Southern or Western Democrats will be defeated, like Lincoln or in TN or WY,
NE Republicans will lose,
etc.

So, gubernatorial and senatorial maps will be increasingly in line with the presidential map, for the first time since... ? a long time anyway.

Is it a sign of bigger polarization ?
Polarization of political apparatuses or of voters ?
Or a sign of a more "nationalized" public opinion, because of media influence ?

How can you explain this strong trend ?
And don't you think it's boring.... ?
(apart from the fact that many Dems will be happy a "traitor" like Lincoln is defeated)

No.
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Vepres
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2010, 04:56:49 pm »

Perhaps inevitable. We are in a transition period where Democrats have become more northern and Republicans more southern, but it seems to be nearing its end. Landrieu and Pryor are the only deep south Democratic holdouts, while Snowe and Collins are the only New England (excluding NH) holdouts.

Regionalism is very prevalent in American politics, and always has been. Starting in 1960, however, the parties started to switch base regions, which caused a very unpolarized map for some time.

Here is the Senate following the 1920 election (from Wikipedia, sorry about the colors):


Now look a the Presidential election:


I think regional polarization can make it more boring, but it also has its own unique and interesting dynamics.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2010, 06:03:38 pm »

I suppose Montana was the Maine of 1920.
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shua
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2010, 10:16:02 pm »

actually, in the Northeast, the GOP stands to gain a number of seats.
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2010, 01:34:24 am »

So we're seing a repolarization of the Republicans to regain more seats in the north and Democrats in the south, like before Carter years?
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