PA: Rasmussen: Toomey+4

[Tender Branson]

48% Toomey (R)
44% Sestak (D)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2010_state_polls/pennsylvania/crosstabs_pennsylvania_senate_october_21_2010

[Keystone Phil]

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Their last poll was Toomey +10 right? Big movement to Sestak in all the polls then.

[Keystone Phil]

Big movement to Sestak in all the polls then.

No one is doubting that now.

[Keystone Phil]

You'll note that Toomey only dropped a point (49% down to 48%) while Sestak picked up among undecided voters (probably Democrats getting more enthused). Quinnipiac and Rasmussen say Toomey is still near 50% while PPP and the Muhlenberg daily traccker have him in the low 40s. Who to believe? 

[Rococo4]

seems about right to me

[Whacker77]

Here is another unforeseen problem with the O'Donnell campaign.  Her absolute craziness and goofy ads are playing on Philly airwaves.  Seeing nutiness like what she is offering is driving up Democrat enthusiam and making some independents to rethink their vote.  I don't think it changes a whole host of votes, but putting Miss Kooky on display is not helpful to Toomey.

[Niemeyerite]

who said PPP poll was an outlier and that it was leaning democrat???

[SvenssonRS]

who said PPP poll was an outlier and that it was leaning democrat???

It's not leaning Democrat. It's a tossup, as is.

[Associate Justice PiT]

who said PPP poll was an outlier and that it was leaning democrat???

It's not leaning Democrat. It's a tossup, as is.

     I think he means that people were saying that the PPP poll was leaning Democratic, relative to the true state of the race.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sestak has the momentum, definately. Toomey's not safe anymore...

[Torie]

The movement has been driven by assuming more Dems are going to show up to vote. Count me skeptical.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The movement has been driven by assuming more Dems are going to show up to vote. Count me skeptical.

Uhhh...
I don't think it's just an assumption. Obviously they are recording what the people are saying to them.

[Sbane]

The movement has been driven by assuming more Dems are going to show up to vote. Count me skeptical.

You think a conservative like Toomey can landslide in PA? Sestak has been running ads where Toomey says all taxes on corporations should be rescinded. Considering those taxes get passed on to the consumers, it's not a very radical idea, but you can understand how it plays well with blue collar people. Plus Sestak seems like a good candidate for this year, and I haven't seen him wear a suit for months.This poll is right about the "sweet spot" I suspect. It's going to be very hard for Sestak to win it in the end but the tightening everyone was expecting has occurred. 

[Sbane]

The movement has been driven by assuming more Dems are going to show up to vote. Count me skeptical.

Uhhh...
I don't think it's just an assumption. Obviously they are recording what the people are saying to them.

Rasmussen weights their poll according to partisan affiliation IIRC.

[Keystone Phil]

Plus Sestak seems like a good candidate for this year, and I haven't seen him wear a suit for months.

Hahaha. Sestak's dressing down/Navy jacket fits into his whole "I'm an admiral, not a Congressman" routine. All of his volunteer t-shirts say, "Admiral" on them, too.

[The Vorlon]

The movement has been driven by assuming more Dems are going to show up to vote. Count me skeptical.

Uhhh...
I don't think it's just an assumption. Obviously they are recording what the people are saying to them.

Rasmussen weights their poll according to partisan affiliation IIRC.

More specifically, Rasmussen weights their base sample according to partisan ID, and then actual responses from the people doing the survey decide if they get deemed likely.

For example, if Rasmussen's data suggest that there is (to pull numbers out of a hat) that the totality of the population is split 40/30/30 D/R/I the total sample will be weighted to 40/30/30, but if certain groups indicate greater enthusiasm and likely hood to vote, the actual likely voter sample may differ from that 40/30/30 breakout.

Rasmussen runs an entirely seperate survey of 500 people a day that tracks party ID, and based upon year long natiopnal aggregations, he uses that (along with other data) to set targetsd for each state by partisan ID, and then "likely is a variation off that base sample based upon actual responses.

[Torie]

Maybe Ras is the exception. And no, I suspect it will be a reasonably tight race. But poll movements based on quite different turnout models than what came before, I do question. I don't think the turnout models have changed much as to what is the reality, and the pollsters and the prevarications of the respondents just give them a very tough job - particularly if it is now more PC than a month ago to say you will vote if you are a Dem - with no intention of actually doing so.

Here is an analysis of the Ras movement (undecided Dems deciding for Sestak) from a partisan Pubbie, yes, but I tend to agree with his analysis, and would be very surprised if Toomey lost, absent some overall last minute shift in the overall national partisan environment.

[Eraserhead]

I guess Scott felt the need to clear the air after unleashing that last stink bomb of a poll on this one.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I can't stand Sestak. He is the very definition of what is wrong with politics today, a detached, pompous prick concerned with only his wallet and his party. If Toomey loses this state is going to go the way of NJ, hopefully there will be a huge party turnover next month.