Minnesota

[dunn]

The most recent poll in Minnesota that I could find was done at the end of January, with Bush getting 41% of the vote, Kerry getting 43, and 16% were undecided.

I think Bush is going to get Minnesota. With the election of Coleman into the senate, I think that may give Bush some votes.

the only time since the 50s' Minnesota went rep was in 72' with Nixon landslide. If bush wins there it's a 350-380 ev for him at least, but he will not.

[dunn]

Gore only won by two points in 2000.

It was 2.5 and Nader got 5+

[dunn]

Perot took away from both sides, as nader did, just slightly more from one side than the other.  I have a colleague that voted for gore and will vote for kerry, but told me he voted for Perot in 1992.  I knew someone back about 12 years ago who could make a good argument for perot being a 'liberal'  I know it's weird that a multi-billioinaire could be described as liberal, but the fact remains that he supported many, many positions that are now assigned to that rather arbitrary label.  Perot's biggest problem was that he claimed that Government was a business and "...should be run like a business..."  Bushies will all claim Perot 'stole' votes away from Bush in 92 just as the Gore people will claim Nader 'stole' votes away from him in 2000, if good campaigning can be called 'stealing'  

Perot I once read a survey took about 2.5 to 1 from the right

[dunn]

I agree

If Perot votes would have gone 2.5 to 1 for bush (as I read in a some poll back then) the EV would be - I check that nationally even - instead of 370-168    207-331 (for Bush). in case of only 2 to 1 it would be 255-283 Bush. and in both cases a big win in PV