US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

Okay, can you run the district across the northern tier of Westmoreland County from McCandless (where my grandmother lived).  Putting Lower Burrell, NK, Derry should make that more Democratic. 

You could use that to shift some slightly Democratic sections from PA-4/12 into PA-9.  You might be able to put some Republican sections of PA-9 into in PA-5.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I'm not sure it's worth it. My district already includes New Kensington. Lower Burrell is 55% McCain, and Derry is 53% McCain. The only towns along the northern tier of Westmoreland County that voted for Obama are Vandergrift, East Vandergrift, and Avonmore, and some of the precincts that would have to be included are well over 60% McCain. While the same is true in western Washington County, those precincts are less populous and allow for easy access to places like Smith Township, Chartiers Township, and Canonsburg, some of the most Democratic areas of Washington County. Critz lost in the Westmoreland County part of his district, but he carried Greene and Washington Counties. So if the goal is to pack Democrats, I don't see how including northern Westmoreland County will help.

[J. J.]

I'm not sure it's worth it. My district already includes New Kensington. Lower Burrell is 55% McCain, and Derry is 53% McCain. The only towns along the northern tier of Westmoreland County that voted for Obama are Vandergrift, East Vandergrift, and Avonmore, and some of the precincts that would have to be included are well over 60% McCain. While the same is true in western Washington County, those precincts are less populous and allow for easy access to places like Smith Township, Chartiers Township, and Canonsburg, some of the most Democratic areas of Washington County. Critz lost in the Westmoreland County part of his district, but he carried Greene and Washington Counties. So if the goal is to pack Democrats, I don't see how including northern Westmoreland County will help.

I might not look at the McCain numbers, but maybe the Bush numbers.

I'd like to see if you could boost PA-5 a bit,

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I realize the folly of using Obama numbers, particularly in Western Pennsylvania. I was hoping the Critz numbers would convince you. 47% in Westmoreland County, compared to 53% in Washington and 52% in Greene.

Even so, in 2000 Gore barely broke 50% in the northern tier from Lower Burrell to St. Clair Township. I don't have the Kerry numbers, but I suspect they're worse since he underperformed compared to Gore in Westmoreland County.

I might take another look at PA-5 later tonight.

[Torie]

Well, gentlemen, I present to you what will be my one Democratic district in Western PA. You can't get much better than this.  Find the rivers, and you find the Democrats, living near the burnt out hulks of former steel plants.

The gray district is a work in progress. I may make it into a Pittsburgh suburban district in its entirety, or maybe not. I am not sure yet. I used Butler County to neutralize Erie County for the Northwest corner district, which you cannot see in this screen shot. That created a CD which McCain carried by 3%, along with the green one which you can see a part of. The gray one is so far, also McCain up by 3%. I may beef that one up a bit more, as I expand it.

My idea, outside the Philly burbs, is to have all the districts carried by McCain by at least 3% - maybe a bit more in the Altmire zone to keep him honest, but I will not try to unseat him. That would be a waste of votes. In the Philly burbs, I will settle for McCain break even districts, since he ran so anemically there. I will try to hew to county lines, except where it proves "inconvenient."  I see that the yellow district does sneak out of Allegheny County to pick up a few heavily Dem precincts up to the northeast. That was very naughty of me. I may want to adjust that.

[J. J.]

I realize the folly of using Obama numbers, particularly in Western Pennsylvania. I was hoping the Critz numbers would convince you. 47% in Westmoreland County, compared to 53% in Washington and 52% in Greene.

Even so, in 2000 Gore barely broke 50% in the northern tier from Lower Burrell to St. Clair Township. I don't have the Kerry numbers, but I suspect they're worse since he underperformed compared to Gore in Westmoreland County.

I might take another look at PA-5 later tonight.

I really don't care if the Democrats have a PA-14 and PA-4/12 that are uber-Democrat, so long as it is surrounded by a PA-3, PA-5, PA-6, and P-18 that stay Republican on a bad night.   

[Torie]

For places like Allegheny County, it would be nice to have a computer program that just drew you the most partisan district within a county - instantly. Then you could play with it, to make it look a bit less erose, if you want, just to make it seem a big less outrageous, assuming it did not otherwise interfere much with your "agenda."  Another example, would be Marion County in Indiana. Or Milwaukee County in Wisconsin. Or Palm Beach and Broward Counties in Florida.

Who wants to volunteer to do that?  

[Verily]

The solution that others seem to be missing is to put Erie in Altmire's district. Makes him safe, to be sure, but there's no way to eliminate both him and Critz and also guarantee the Republicans hold all of their current seats. Better to go after Critz and give Altmire a safe(-ish) district for now. And it wouldn't be strictly unwinnable for Republicans, maybe 55-56% Obama.

[Torie]

Well, I was dumb, and mixed up PA's projected number of electoral votes (20), with the number of CD's, which isn't 20, but 18. So my effort above has districts with inadequate population. So time to start over. The "problem" with having to add another 80,000 folks or so is that I ran out of precincts in Allegheny County that I really wanted as part of the Dem pack (anything 55% Obama or less I really didn't want to include unless necessary as a connector). So it was time to throw the rule book out, and just go for the ultimate gerrymander, and thus this object d'art, 71% for Obama. Just call it the rust belt river snake CD.  Do you think the Dems might have any problem with it?    This little effort should make the rest of Western PA comfortably GOP, although Altmire can continue to represent a district when I get done that went for McCain by 6% or 7% or so, as long as he remains sufficient "traitorous" to his party. Crist will be total history. He's going to be fried. I am going to do a number on Cambria County, just to make sure he gets the message.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here's a map of Pennsylvania. My objectives were:

1. Shore up the Republicans in Obama districts as much as possible.
2. Get rid of Tim Holden for real this time.
3. Eliminate Critz's district.

Here are the maps:

Statewide



Pittsburgh area



Southeast PA



Philadelphia area



PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Pretty much unchanged. 37% white, 37% black, 17% Hispanic. Old district: 88-12 Obama, new district: 84-16 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Expands into North Philly. 57% black. Old district: 90-10 Obama, new district: 88-11 Obama.
PA-03 (dark purple NW corner, Mike Kelly - R) - Goes more to the east than to the south. Old district: 49-49 McCain, new district: same (McCain by about 1,200 votes).
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D) - Didn't try to dislodge him, but didn't try to make it easier for him either. Pretty much kept the same borders, except it pulls in more of Butler County now. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-05 (gold central district, Glenn Thompson - R) - Necessity causes it to stretch down to the suburbs of Pittsburgh. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-06 (dark teal SE district, Jim Gerlach - R) - Somewhat less of a mess, it takes in as much Republican territory in SE PA as possible, and also picks up part of Bethlehem. Old district: 58-41 Obama, new district: 53-45 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Pat Meehan - R) - Some of the heavily-Dem precincts on the eastern end of Delaware County get eaten by PA-01, and it expands west to the more Republican parts of Chester County. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-08 (purple SE district, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Cut out the Dem part of SE Bucks County and added some parts of Montgomery and Philly that are more Republican. Old district: 54-45 Obama, new district: 51-48 Obama.
PA-09 (light teal S district, Bill Shuster - R and Mark Critz - D) - Mostly the same, except it pulls in Cambria County and stretches out to the Pittsburgh suburbs. Critz wouldn't stand much of a chance here. Old district: 63-35 McCain, new district: 60-39 McCain (the most Republican district in the state).
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Stretches across the northern part of the state, but also takes in all of Lackawanna. Republicans would do well to primary Marino, since he'd probably lose here, but a competent Republican could hold the district. Old district: 54-45 McCain, new district: 51-48 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE district, Lou Barletta - R) - Luzerne County and its environs. Old district: 57-42 Obama, new district: 51-47 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple S district, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19, pretty much unchanged except it takes in part of Harrisburg. Old district: 56-43 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - An octopus that takes in as much heavily-Dem territory as possible from the surrounding Republican districts. Old district: 59-41 Obama, new district: 68-32 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Pretty much the same, Pittsburgh. Old district: 70-29 Obama, new district: 68-31 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut out part of Bethlehem, adds parts of counties to the north. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE district, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly unchanged, except it pulls in some more of Reading. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 51-49 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple central district, Tim Holden - D) - To get rid of Holden, you need to cut up Schuylkill County, as I did into 4 districts. Stretches to the west now, and loses part of Harrisburg as well. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
PA-18 (yellow SW district, Tim Murphy - R) - Pretty much all of the southern Pittsburgh suburbs and points south. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.

So, if the Republicans knock off Holden and hold their seats, it's a 13-5 map. If they can get rid of Altmire as well, it's 14-4.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Critz might stand a chance in that yellow district. I know he lives in Johnstown but it's never hard to "move".

[muon2]

I still think that the PA GOP would be wiser to concede a fourth seat in SE PA and lock in all other gains. The JL map has more swing districts that rely on strong incumbents in that area than partisans should be comfortable with.

[J. J.]

Critz might stand a chance in that yellow district. I know he lives in Johnstown but it's never hard to "move".

And he wouldn't have to, since he doesn't have to be a resident.

He could be made a resident of that district.  I think he lives in Westmont.  You could add Conemaugh Township (Somerset County) and either Upper Yoder or Southmont and reach Westmont.  The population change would be 14,000-18,000 from the 2000 Census;  I'd expect a drop with the current numbers.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would be wiser, yes, but what is wise often goes out the door come redistricting time. The Republicans did the exact same thing with the last map, creating a bunch of swing districts and hoping the Democrats didn't pick them up. Of course, all but one of the Democratic pickups snapped back in 2010. And heck, my map is better because all the swing districts are at least a couple points more Republican now.

[Torie]

Here is my initial attempt with the 4 CD's in far western PA. Apparently, the are no legal or other constraints on the Pubbies gerrymandering CD's in PA, just legislative seats. So I feel totally unleashed, and this map reflects that, and then some. The stats are as follows (PA-14 is 71% Obama):

              McCain    Obama                 McCain %
CD-18   190029   155692   345721   54.97%  (yellow CD)
CD-04   203505   172984   376489   54.05%  (orange CD)
CD-03   162114   149307   311421   52.06%  (purple CD)

[CatoMinor]

Torie, that spot by Monroeville appears to be completely cut off from the rest of the district, can you do that?

[Torie]

Torie, that spot by Monroeville appears to be completely cut off from the rest of the district, can you do that?

I can do anything, because I am a lawyer, and rules are for other people.



I did notice that I trapped one precinct elsewhere by accident (erose maps are hard to see when the "fits" are so tight, kind of like really satisfying sex). I have fixed that.

Meanwhile, in other news, having now drawn one more CD, CD-12, the infamous Critz CD, that CD is now 56% McCain, even though Critz has all of his beloved Johnstown. Shuster may not like it, but then I don't like Shuster much. Bud is kind of a useless drone earmarking porker type. It will be good to make him sweat a bit.

[Mr.Phips]

Okay, here's a map of Pennsylvania. My objectives were:

1. Shore up the Republicans in Obama districts as much as possible.
2. Get rid of Tim Holden for real this time.
3. Eliminate Critz's district.

Here are the maps:

Statewide



Pittsburgh area



Southeast PA



Philadelphia area



PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Pretty much unchanged. 37% white, 37% black, 17% Hispanic. Old district: 88-12 Obama, new district: 84-16 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Expands into North Philly. 57% black. Old district: 90-10 Obama, new district: 88-11 Obama.
PA-03 (dark purple NW corner, Mike Kelly - R) - Goes more to the east than to the south. Old district: 49-49 McCain, new district: same (McCain by about 1,200 votes).
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D) - Didn't try to dislodge him, but didn't try to make it easier for him either. Pretty much kept the same borders, except it pulls in more of Butler County now. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-05 (gold central district, Glenn Thompson - R) - Necessity causes it to stretch down to the suburbs of Pittsburgh. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
PA-06 (dark teal SE district, Jim Gerlach - R) - Somewhat less of a mess, it takes in as much Republican territory in SE PA as possible, and also picks up part of Bethlehem. Old district: 58-41 Obama, new district: 53-45 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Pat Meehan - R) - Some of the heavily-Dem precincts on the eastern end of Delaware County get eaten by PA-01, and it expands west to the more Republican parts of Chester County. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-08 (purple SE district, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Cut out the Dem part of SE Bucks County and added some parts of Montgomery and Philly that are more Republican. Old district: 54-45 Obama, new district: 51-48 Obama.
PA-09 (light teal S district, Bill Shuster - R and Mark Critz - D) - Mostly the same, except it pulls in Cambria County and stretches out to the Pittsburgh suburbs. Critz wouldn't stand much of a chance here. Old district: 63-35 McCain, new district: 60-39 McCain (the most Republican district in the state).
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Stretches across the northern part of the state, but also takes in all of Lackawanna. Republicans would do well to primary Marino, since he'd probably lose here, but a competent Republican could hold the district. Old district: 54-45 McCain, new district: 51-48 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE district, Lou Barletta - R) - Luzerne County and its environs. Old district: 57-42 Obama, new district: 51-47 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple S district, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19, pretty much unchanged except it takes in part of Harrisburg. Old district: 56-43 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - An octopus that takes in as much heavily-Dem territory as possible from the surrounding Republican districts. Old district: 59-41 Obama, new district: 68-32 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Pretty much the same, Pittsburgh. Old district: 70-29 Obama, new district: 68-31 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut out part of Bethlehem, adds parts of counties to the north. Old district: 56-43 Obama, new district: 54-45 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE district, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly unchanged, except it pulls in some more of Reading. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 51-49 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple central district, Tim Holden - D) - To get rid of Holden, you need to cut up Schuylkill County, as I did into 4 districts. Stretches to the west now, and loses part of Harrisburg as well. Old district: 51-48 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
PA-18 (yellow SW district, Tim Murphy - R) - Pretty much all of the southern Pittsburgh suburbs and points south. Old district: 55-44 McCain, new district: 53-46 McCain.

So, if the Republicans knock off Holden and hold their seats, it's a 13-5 map. If they can get rid of Altmire as well, it's 14-4.

What was done in the Northeast and Southwest is quite risky.  Critz could run in PA-18 and could well win.   A Democrat could beat Marino in your PA-10.  The cutting up of Bucks county is something that has never been done before and could cause some trouble with the locals. 

[krazen1211]

I always thought the real problem with creating a 4th Philly suburb district is that it's sort of a waste. There's really not much incredibly strong Dem territory. Between upper Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks county you're really looking at a whole load of 52-56% Obama precincts globally across the board. You can't really pull out 700k voters and really shore anyone else up that much.

Even in 2006, Mike Fitzpatrick won Bucks county. The problem is that he lost some really poorly chosen sections of Philadelphia by landslide margins.

Natural expansion of the 1st, 2nd, 13th is going to swallow up all the 65%+ Obama precints in areas like Upper Darby, Lower Merion, Bensalem, etc. Fitzpatrick, Meehan, Gerlach are all stuck in Obama voting districts, but more like Obama 50-52% rather than Obama 55-56%.

I'd much rather run Tim Holden up to Scranton/Wilkes Barre. If you get really ugly, you can run him into Reading as well. Looks like the Devil's pitchfork. If you need to, you can pull him slightly out of Harrisburg and absorb that city into the districts in the T.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Torie, that spot by Monroeville appears to be completely cut off from the rest of the district, can you do that?

I can do anything, because I am a lawyer, and rules are for other people.



I did notice that I trapped one precinct elsewhere by accident (erose maps are hard to see when the "fits" are so tight, kind of like really satisfying sex). I have fixed that.

Meanwhile, in other news, having now drawn one more CD, CD-12, the infamous Critz CD, that CD is now 56% McCain, even though Critz has all of his beloved Johnstown. Shuster may not like it, but then I don't like Shuster much. Bud is kind of a useless drone earmarking porker type. It will be good to make him sweat a bit.

Like father like son.

[Torie]

Hey Phil, you may well soon be residing  in CD-08.  Congratulations!    And Mr. Phips, you got the idea for how to draw PA-13, but there is always more, when one really tries - one precinct at a time.  The partisan coloration feature for PA really helps. Sometimes, I just click on a rather deep blue precinct, to add to a Dem pack CD, and then see if I can link it up, without ceding much ground that I don't want to cede, because it just isn't Dem enough.  There usually is a way. In father out areas, it typically is older little towns that have the blueish coloration one wants to suck up, and then you try to link them up with little snakes or spikes, through the most Dem precincts possible. I got almost everything that I wanted that way.

In any event, if you ever wondered where the Dems in the Philly area are who live in precincts that I can get at "cheaply," now you know. To be specific as to what "cheaply" means, I mean that it is a 57% Obama precinct or better, that I can reach without going through a precinct that is less than, with a couple of exceptions, 56% Obama. The Dems in the Philly area in general (except for a few prongs into Montco), really do hang together, and in this case, that does not mean just blacks. The blue CD is only 36% black (Hispanics 18%, and whites 36%), yet Obama carried it with 84%.

And you also now know where the Pubbies are competitive in Philadelphia. On the south side, it presumably is the land of Italians, military personnel, and airline pilots and their playmates perhaps. Yes, I know, the precinct through the Philly airport and a tank farm field or something, with next to no people, needs to be redrawn, with another slightly adjusted. But precinct boundaries, have to follow district boundaries, and not the reverse, so that should not be a problem, to connect the somewhat Pubbie clutch in South Philly (overall Obama probably carried it by a very narrow margin, but that means it needs to be cut out, so that the Dem CD's can take in more heavily Dem territory elsewhere) to the reasonably Pubbie friendly zone in Delaware County.

PA-13 (the tan CD), clocks in at 65% Obama, 34% McCain, for a 31% lead. With  3 of the Pubbie districts in the west now put to bed,  for the 11 Pubbie CD's yet to be drawn, McCain has now taken the lead by 1%. Thus I this point, I am putting up the Philly map. Isn't it gorgeous?  

For the two Philly CD's, by the way, I have increased the Dem pack by 7 points, from the 2000 map, with the Green CD clocking in at 91% Obama. Not bad at all, considering I was expecting a dilution, although granted I am using the McCain numbers rather than the Bush 2004 numbers, so perhaps there is no gain, but the two Philly CD's just grabbing more Dem territory due to population loss is a big help in and of itself.  And for Montgomery County probably, and certainly Delaware County, the internal county population shifts not reflected in the data base yet, should give another little Pubbie boost.

It looks like this map is indeed going to work limiting the Dems to just 4 CD's. We shall see. It is tight, and I need to see the Bush 2004 numbers when I do a 50%-51% McCain CD.  If it is much below 55%, or I don't like the trends, I am going to get nervous. If I have to create a marginal CD to make it all work, it will of course be CD-10 that takes the hit. The incumbent Pubbie, Tom Marino, was just elected, and is not well respected by Pubbies in PA. He is not respected by Phil, and he was not respected by a Pubbie operative I met at GOP headquarters in Gettysburg (Adams County), and he has ethical problems, and so on. If he goes down, fine. It will still be a marginal CD, and a Pubbie later on might pick it up. It looks like that might well be where we are headed.

And yes, when you draw your maps, it is best to do the Dem pack CD's first really. That gives you the information that you really need as to whether you are headed in the right direction. I will repost the text for my PA back of the envelop formula that I posted on the Ohio thread later on for purposes of reference so that you understand better what I mean by Dem pack and points.

Happy new year all!

[Torie]

If one wrote a computer program telling it to max the GOP take in the Philly metro area, drawing contiguous CD's, after telling it to redraw the two Philly airport precincts, and the Gulf Oil tank farm precinct, this is what the map would look like. PA-08 is 51%-49% Obama, and assuming the swing to Obama in the new CD was the same as the old (it is not all that different, but it is different, that translates into 52-48 Bush 2004 (the trend in this CD from 2004 to 2008 was only about half that of the nation). The old CD-08 was 51-48 Kerry, and 54-45 Obama, so the CD is about 3% more GOP than before. When the internal population shifts in Bucks and Philadelphia census figures come in, the CD might get about .5% more GOP perhaps. But maybe not. The precincts are so relatively monochromatic, including the Philly ones (which in some instances are actually a tad more GOP than much of Bucks), that in this neck of the woods, there may not be much movement.

So PA-08 is a about a +1% GOP PVI CD now, clearly marginal, but it is the best one can do.  There just isn't any GOP territory around to pick up really to the north and west, and if the CD did have some crazy prongs going in that direction, it would cause problems for other CD's in any event. So I suspect PA-08 will indeed look something like the way I drew it, if the GOP is not going to cede a seat.  Mike Fitzpatrick did win by 8% in 2010, and lost by just a handful of votes in 2006, so he should probably be OK if competent. Granted, I may change my mind about how to handle CD-08 as I work on the central and northeastern parts of PA, but I tend to doubt it. It may indeed by the case that even ceding a CD (or making another CD marginal (say CD-17 (Holden, or CD-10 (Marino)), will really not move the ball much given the geography involved here.  We shall see.

Granted, there is some attractiveness to making the Holden CD much more marginal, because then all the Pubbie incumbents will be safe, which is probably a rather attractive option for the PA GOP. But it is not as if CD-08 has any really substantially Dem precincts that can be carved out. It really doesn't, except for two 60-40 Obama New Hope precincts which are impossible to get at, in any event, and clearly not worth the candle anyway.

Finally, that green precinct in CD-16 to the far east of CD-16 is where the incumbent Potts lives, which is going to make the map a real mess. But it can't be helped, unless he moves, and he has lived there forever. CD-06 and CD-07 are not finished yet to the west and perhaps northwest. Drawing the balance of the map is going to get extremely complicated, and will require a lot of thought to get right.

I am also adding a zoom focusing on the City of Philadelphia itself, and the close in burbs, so that you can see better the wild mischief I did there. I really don't feel too guilty about it all, because frankly the existing map is ludicrously erose in many places. Erose maps I guess are a tradition in PA. The parties will stop at nothing to grab all they can.

[Torie]

Here is the map. Yes, it is 13R-5D map (well 12R-6D for so long as Altmire survives). Basically, PA-17 becomes a CD taking in the most Dem parts of the old PA-11 and PA-15. I did not realize just how Dem PA 11 and 15 actually were. They needed rather massive surgery. So PA 15 is shorn of heavily Dem Bethlehem, Easton, and most of Allentown (it is convenient that Dent lives in the most GOP precinct in Allentown on its west end), while PA-11 drops Monroe County, and most of Scranton (Scranton has a 3 way chop, as PA-17 and PA-10 pick off the bulk of the most heavily Dem precincts), with the new PA-11 and PA 15 heading on West, picking up basically all of the GOP parts of the old PA-17.  The only thing PA-17 has left is the most Dem part of  Schuylkill County, including Holden's home in St. Clair.

So all the incumbent Pubbies are safe, with PA-12, the Critz-Shuster seat, at 56% McCain, the most GOP in the state (so Critz is finished). The second most GOP  is the Altmire CD, PA-4, ironically (55% McCain). Under this map, the main issue is whether Holden will resign from the blue dog caucus, given that his CD is now 62% Obama.  

Yes, the map is ugly, but it is the only way to draw it, if all the Pubbie incumbents have their home in their CD, and all are to be made safe, even if the CD becomes open at some point (the most marginal being PA-08, but even that seat should under most conditions be held by the Pubbies even if Fitzpatrick retires). If fact, all the incumbents in the state have their home in their CD's, with Critz and Shuster in the same CD, PA-12.

I suspect that this is the map that will become law, or something very close to it, unless Pitts in PA-16 can be induced to move his residence.

[Sam Spade]

Pitts may well retire soon enough - he's going to be 73 in 2012.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just noticed Springfield voted for McCain. That's...wow. Really not what I would've expected.