US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Dgov]

So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

[Dgov]

So, only 1/3 of the districts are "obama" in a state that he won by 10 points. Typical.

Well, to be honest, after drawing the two African-American Majority districts around Philly, the state becomes 51-48 Obama.  Throw in a Pittsburgh District and a suburban Philly one and it becomes 48-51 Obama.  You could theoretically draw a 14-4 map

There are too many Democrats in the Scranton-NE area not to have at least one Obama district there.  And there are too many Democrats in the Philly suburbs not to have at least two Obama districts there.  This map is pretty much the best that can be done for Republicans and that would probably still be 10-8 in favor of Republicans because it shores up Altmire and Holden. 

I said Theoretically (involving Pittsburgh to Scranton districts).  My point was that Democrats are highly concentrated in Pennsylvania, so it's much easier to draw maps that favor them than maps that favor the Democrats.

[Dgov]

Again, Holden would run against Dent and likely win in 2012.  He would swamp Dent in the Schuylkill and Dauphin portions and probably hold Dent to 55% or less everywhere else.   And you are cutting PA-10 and PA-11 awfully thin for Republicans. 

It would probably be better to just concede the Democrats a Safe district for Holden in Central PA.  Draw one from Harrisburg to Schuylkill to Scranton and Reading.  You can make one that's about 65% Obama, and by doing so you make the 11th, 15th, and 6th much safer for Republicans.

[Dgov]

The best way to get rid of Holden would be to divide Schuylkill among three or four districts.

No, the best way to get rid of Holden would be to put him in a Safe D district and wait for the primary challenge.

[Dgov]

Surprisingly meek redistricting plan. Shores up Gerlach and Barletta, but doesn't do much to help the other incumbents. And Barletta would be vulnerable if Chris Carney decided to run again, since he's been put into PA-11.

Fairly Clean too.  I mean, it obviously has partisan leanings to it, particularly the 17th and SEPA, but nothing really egregious like the current map.  You could probably make a case for 'community of interest" for every district but the 17th (not a good one mind you).

[Dgov]

Lol, I just drew an 80% Black, 96% Obama district in Philly.

Its even more pronounced in  Southern Chicago.  I got it up to 91% and 98.4% Respectively, with not a single precinct that voted less than 90% Obama. McCain literally got a whopping 5,272 votes there to Obama's 370,976

[Dgov]

You guys are surprised? Drawing such districts on the legislative level happens all the time, a 98% Obama State Senate district in Maryland is easy to draw without looking the slightest bit gerrymandered.

yes, but its rare to be able to do it to 700,000 person Congressional districts.

[Dgov]

You forgot the light blue district in South-Central PA, though I assume it's safe R taking in much of the current 12th to take out Critz.

Also, did you put Schwartz into a black-plurality district or am I reading it wrong?