Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 16, 2019, 04:17:39 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  US House Redistricting: General
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 Print
Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 76212 times)
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,253
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: May 13, 2017, 04:53:40 pm »




A map I came up with quickly.

1st 59.7-39.0 Obama
2nd 54.6-44.0 Obama
3rd 56.2-42.6 Obama

All three also have a Democratic average vote in DRA as well.  Could unpack the 1st to make the second more safe if you wanted.

From what I read about the 2011 redistricting, this plan would face serious opposition from southern New Mexico Democrats and Republicans alike. Apparently the Democrats would rather concede a seat to the Republicans so SNM can have its own seat rather than lock Republicans out of power in New Mexico.
Logged

 

Congratulations Governor Whitmer! Best of luck over the next four years!

“Whenever Donald Trump appears on TV, it should be preceded by a disclaimer that says ‘This content may not be acceptable for children.’”
-Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)

Abolish capital punishment now!

Joe Biden 2020
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,359
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: May 23, 2017, 07:15:04 pm »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?
Logged

“Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties.” -John Milton
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,902
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: May 23, 2017, 08:49:30 pm »

I think that's just the product of VRA rules.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: May 23, 2017, 10:57:05 pm »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?


Well, yes. The Dem party used to slice black communities into smithereens in order to elect White liberals. North Carolina Democrats referred to this tactic as bleaching.
Logged
MarkD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,601
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: May 27, 2017, 10:14:56 am »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?

I never heard of a deal between them, but I did read about many Democratic state legislators being very pleased and impressed with how much the Justice Dept, under President Bush 41, was eager to help, and even insist, that more black-majority districts were going to be drawn during 1991 than ever before.
Logged

Rewrite the 14th Amendment!
States should have clear guidelines what laws they cannot pass, and the federal courts should have far less discretion in choosing what laws to strike down. Take away from the federal courts the power to define liberty and the power to define equality. Those are legislative powers and should be in the hands of legislators. Rewrite Section 1 of the 14th to make its meaning narrower and clearer.
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,803


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: May 29, 2017, 12:50:37 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).
Logged

Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,551
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2017, 08:37:05 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,425
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: June 08, 2017, 12:32:49 am »

This is an example of how the republicans could take out Cooper. The New 5th is McCain 52.5%, The New 6th is McCain 53.4%. The other seats remain unchanged.



(Just click where the image should be if it doesn't come up right)


« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 02:16:26 am by Dwarven Dragon »Logged

publicunofficial
angryGreatness
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,101
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: June 08, 2017, 03:53:10 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

The one thing that often prevents it is incumbents being very demanding about their district boundaries. For example, if MO-04 took on more of Kansas City to crack it, Vicki Hartzlter could lose in the primary to a Kansas City-based Republican.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,425
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: June 08, 2017, 08:44:09 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

The one thing that often prevents it is incumbents being very demanding about their district boundaries. For example, if MO-04 took on more of Kansas City to crack it, Vicki Hartzlter could lose in the primary to a Kansas City-based Republican.

Kansas City is also Dem enough that when you split it up, unless you completely throw out any semblance  to the current district scheme, there is still a seat that is like McCain +3, thus you don't have a completely guaranteed 8-1 Map.
Logged

Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,253
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: June 24, 2017, 07:02:15 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?
Logged

 

Congratulations Governor Whitmer! Best of luck over the next four years!

“Whenever Donald Trump appears on TV, it should be preceded by a disclaimer that says ‘This content may not be acceptable for children.’”
-Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)

Abolish capital punishment now!

Joe Biden 2020
Singletxguyforfun
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,269
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: June 25, 2017, 01:58:50 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening
Logged

Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,551
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: June 25, 2017, 02:50:49 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

Actually, that's what I'm hoping they do, but replace Peoria with Bloomington.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,949
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: June 30, 2017, 07:53:27 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

Actually, that's what I'm hoping they do, but replace Peoria with Bloomington.

Democrats have to start gerrymandering aggressively until we can get fair districts. As it stands, it's lopsided.
Logged

Sic semper tyrannis.
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: June 30, 2017, 07:58:22 pm »

I was under the impression that if Democrats have total control of redistricting in 2020, they were going to cut one of IL- 12 and IL -13 and take the most Democratic parts of the two districts and make one slight D favored district in the South, No?
Logged

I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps


This is my fair district map. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: July 02, 2017, 02:48:30 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

The Dems also need to save votes for Bustos.
Logged
megameow
Megameow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,020
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: August 30, 2017, 04:39:49 pm »

I hope a new DRA-like program is developed. DRA is continuously disintegrating into obsolete-ness. Each new version of browsers stops supporting DRA; at this point is too old. Will no longer work for my computer Sad
Logged

Seattle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 676
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: October 02, 2017, 11:31:09 pm »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!

Logged

So it goes. heya.
Lok
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,236
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.64, S: -2.65

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: October 03, 2017, 12:25:40 am »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!


I hope this is true.
Logged

A Liberal LGBT.

JOIN THE DISCORD!!!
https://discord.gg/7kKvzqT
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: October 04, 2017, 07:43:35 am »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!



Guess I posted in the wrong area... can confirm this is happening.

Logged

I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps


This is my fair district map. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 466


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: November 22, 2017, 03:43:41 pm »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!



Guess I posted in the wrong area... can confirm this is happening.



Unfortunately, the results map is still based on 2008 and it can't give you a specific 2016 result. I like the PVI calculator, but not every state has one, which forces you to base things on 2008 results and intuition about trends since then.
Logged

I endorse: President Donald Trump
Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Steve King (R-IA)
Lou Barletta (R-PA)
Dave Brat (R-VA)
Lamar Smith (R-TX)
and literally anyone who runs against John McCain
AustralianSwingVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,814
Australia


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: November 22, 2017, 05:38:08 pm »

Map of states with 2012/2016 PVI currently available.
Logged

...Nazi Fascist Hitler gun control platform...
Define Assault weapon as guns that shoot flaming chainsaws wrapped in barbed wire.
Contrary to popular belief, I am anything but dumb.
#KavanaughForPrison
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,966


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P
View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: December 04, 2017, 05:10:39 pm »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
Logged

No Toss Ups

2020 President Prediction:

Electoral College:
(Likely D/374-164)

National Popular Vote:
(Safe D/D+12)

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,041
Marshall Islands


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: December 05, 2017, 09:25:17 pm »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
I think the only state that is being litigated is Texas, and maybe Maryland.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida changed for 2016.

Alabama has changed its legislative districts for 2018, and special elections are being held on the new boundaries. North Carolina is finishing up its new districts to be used in 2018. Virginia's are still being litigated, but could change for 2019. Texas is still being litigated.
Logged
Shameless Bernie Hack
Chickenhawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,190


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: December 08, 2017, 07:03:04 am »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
I think the only state that is being litigated is Texas, and maybe Maryland.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida changed for 2016.

Alabama has changed its legislative districts for 2018, and special elections are being held on the new boundaries. North Carolina is finishing up its new districts to be used in 2018. Virginia's are still being litigated, but could change for 2019. Texas is still being litigated.

Isn't Alabama's state house map going to be re-litigated?

Probably not in time for 2018 though.
Logged

Why weep or slumber, America?

"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue." ~Sen Barry Goldwater
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines