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  US House Redistricting: General
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 78283 times)
Wolverine22
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« Reply #75 on: May 13, 2017, 04:53:40 pm »

Img



A map I came up with quickly.

1st 59.7-39.0 Obama
2nd 54.6-44.0 Obama
3rd 56.2-42.6 Obama

All three also have a Democratic average vote in DRA as well.  Could unpack the 1st to make the second more safe if you wanted.

From what I read about the 2011 redistricting, this plan would face serious opposition from southern New Mexico Democrats and Republicans alike. Apparently the Democrats would rather concede a seat to the Republicans so SNM can have its own seat rather than lock Republicans out of power in New Mexico.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #76 on: May 23, 2017, 07:15:04 pm »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #77 on: May 23, 2017, 08:49:30 pm »

I think that's just the product of VRA rules.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #78 on: May 23, 2017, 10:57:05 pm »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?


Well, yes. The Dem party used to slice black communities into smithereens in order to elect White liberals. North Carolina Democrats referred to this tactic as bleaching.
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MarkD
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« Reply #79 on: May 27, 2017, 10:14:56 am »

General question: Didn't the Congressional Black Caucus and the GOP House leadership work out a scheme, some years ago, to essentially guarantee a certain number of Black-held seats by creating several heavily Democratic districts, essentially leaving the rest of the districts to their own (white, Republican) devices?

It seems to have worked, as Black representation in the House essentially equals the Black share of the national population, with 49 Black representatives (including 3 Republicans) out of 435, and of course the GOP has held the house 18 of the last 22 years.

It is conceivable--likely, even, that Democratic schemes to limit gerrymandering could reduce the number of Black-held districts?

I never heard of a deal between them, but I did read about many Democratic state legislators being very pleased and impressed with how much the Justice Dept, under President Bush 41, was eager to help, and even insist, that more black-majority districts were going to be drawn during 1991 than ever before.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #80 on: May 29, 2017, 12:50:37 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2017, 08:37:05 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #82 on: June 08, 2017, 12:32:49 am »
« Edited: August 28, 2017, 02:16:26 am by Dwarven Dragon »

This is an example of how the republicans could take out Cooper. The New 5th is McCain 52.5%, The New 6th is McCain 53.4%. The other seats remain unchanged.

Img


(Just click where the image should be if it doesn't come up right)


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publicunofficial
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« Reply #83 on: June 08, 2017, 03:53:10 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

The one thing that often prevents it is incumbents being very demanding about their district boundaries. For example, if MO-04 took on more of Kansas City to crack it, Vicki Hartzlter could lose in the primary to a Kansas City-based Republican.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #84 on: June 08, 2017, 08:44:09 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

The one thing that often prevents it is incumbents being very demanding about their district boundaries. For example, if MO-04 took on more of Kansas City to crack it, Vicki Hartzlter could lose in the primary to a Kansas City-based Republican.

Kansas City is also Dem enough that when you split it up, unless you completely throw out any semblance  to the current district scheme, there is still a seat that is like McCain +3, thus you don't have a completely guaranteed 8-1 Map.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #85 on: June 24, 2017, 07:02:15 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?
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Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #86 on: June 25, 2017, 01:58:50 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening
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Gass3268
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« Reply #87 on: June 25, 2017, 02:50:49 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

Actually, that's what I'm hoping they do, but replace Peoria with Bloomington.
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Arch
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« Reply #88 on: June 30, 2017, 07:53:27 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

Actually, that's what I'm hoping they do, but replace Peoria with Bloomington.

Democrats have to start gerrymandering aggressively until we can get fair districts. As it stands, it's lopsided.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #89 on: June 30, 2017, 07:58:22 pm »

I was under the impression that if Democrats have total control of redistricting in 2020, they were going to cut one of IL- 12 and IL -13 and take the most Democratic parts of the two districts and make one slight D favored district in the South, No?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #90 on: July 02, 2017, 02:48:30 pm »

Is there any way Illinois could draw Mike Bost out of office in IL-12?

probably not. South Illinois trended hard republican so unless they draw an abomination MD-3 type district from E. St. Louis to Springfield and branching to Peoria and Champaign i cant see it happening

The Dems also need to save votes for Bustos.
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megameow
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« Reply #91 on: August 30, 2017, 04:39:49 pm »

I hope a new DRA-like program is developed. DRA is continuously disintegrating into obsolete-ness. Each new version of browsers stops supporting DRA; at this point is too old. Will no longer work for my computer Sad
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Seattle
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« Reply #92 on: October 02, 2017, 11:31:09 pm »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!

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Lok
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« Reply #93 on: October 03, 2017, 12:25:40 am »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!


I hope this is true.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #94 on: October 04, 2017, 07:43:35 am »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!



Guess I posted in the wrong area... can confirm this is happening.

Img
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #95 on: November 22, 2017, 03:43:41 pm »

Some very important news I saw on Twitter from Realistic Idealist:
Apparently 2012 AND 2016 presidential election data will be making their way on to DRA shortly!



Guess I posted in the wrong area... can confirm this is happening.

Img


Unfortunately, the results map is still based on 2008 and it can't give you a specific 2016 result. I like the PVI calculator, but not every state has one, which forces you to base things on 2008 results and intuition about trends since then.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #96 on: November 22, 2017, 05:38:08 pm »

Map of states with 2012/2016 PVI currently available.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #97 on: December 04, 2017, 05:10:39 pm »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #98 on: December 05, 2017, 09:25:17 pm »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
I think the only state that is being litigated is Texas, and maybe Maryland.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida changed for 2016.

Alabama has changed its legislative districts for 2018, and special elections are being held on the new boundaries. North Carolina is finishing up its new districts to be used in 2018. Virginia's are still being litigated, but could change for 2019. Texas is still being litigated.
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Shameless Bernie Hack
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« Reply #99 on: December 08, 2017, 07:03:04 am »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
I think the only state that is being litigated is Texas, and maybe Maryland.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida changed for 2016.

Alabama has changed its legislative districts for 2018, and special elections are being held on the new boundaries. North Carolina is finishing up its new districts to be used in 2018. Virginia's are still being litigated, but could change for 2019. Texas is still being litigated.

Isn't Alabama's state house map going to be re-litigated?

Probably not in time for 2018 though.
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