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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 87599 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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E: -1.68, S: 1.22

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« on: June 21, 2015, 04:57:50 pm »

North Dakota with 2 districts, gerrymandered for republicans:

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1. 53-45 McCain
2. 54-44 McCain

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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,910
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2017, 12:32:49 am »
« Edited: August 28, 2017, 02:16:26 am by Dwarven Dragon »

This is an example of how the republicans could take out Cooper. The New 5th is McCain 52.5%, The New 6th is McCain 53.4%. The other seats remain unchanged.

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(Just click where the image should be if it doesn't come up right)


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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,910
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2017, 08:44:09 am »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

The one thing that often prevents it is incumbents being very demanding about their district boundaries. For example, if MO-04 took on more of Kansas City to crack it, Vicki Hartzlter could lose in the primary to a Kansas City-based Republican.

Kansas City is also Dem enough that when you split it up, unless you completely throw out any semblance  to the current district scheme, there is still a seat that is like McCain +3, thus you don't have a completely guaranteed 8-1 Map.
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