US House Redistricting: General

[Nyvin]

Looking at the Twin Cities MN Metro, I think a least change map is actually quite possible for 2020 with 7 districts.   The 7 county area has enough population for 3.87 districts as of the 2018 estimates (and growing faster than the rest of the state),  so keeping MN-2 going southeast is actually perfect to fill in the rest.

2018 Estimates:

Anoka County	353813
Hennepin County	1259428
Total	1613241
Districts	2.01253373
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Ramsey County	550210
Washington County	259201
Total	809411
Districts	1.00974804
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dakota County	425423
Carver County	103551
Scott County	147381
Rice County	66523
Goodhue County	46403
Wabasha County	21645
Total	810926
Districts	1.011638018

Both Hennepin districts already go into Anoka county anyway, so it makes sense that the rest of Anoka is added in with them.   Anoka and Hennepin will be just slightly over 2 districts in 2020.

Ramsey and Washington likewise are already together right now, and in 2020 they'll be almost exactly make 1 district together.

That leaves Dakota, Scott, and Carver in the 7 county Metro, which can be put together and add the rest of Rice county (already in MN-2 partially) and keep Goodhue and Wabasha for a bit above 1 district.

That leaves 4 districts in the Metro (or pretty close to it) and you end up with something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/195772db-7c60-4d59-96cb-2f1560f2afd9

[Nyvin]

If the goal of the CA commission is to make competitive seats, why does it not follow a map similar to 538's redistricting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Competitive

Currently the 7 Safe GOP seats seem like a fig leaf.

Competitiveness isn't specifically spelled out in the commission's goals,  communities of interest is instead.   A lot of the GOP seats like the one in Northeastern CA and some of the San Diego/Orange County seats were either directly built as COI's or were surrounded by COI's and just got shaped by them.

[Nyvin]

Any chance of something like this passing in Oregon in 2021?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b3a39d40-0280-41b6-bbd4-a3f1c423d267



Obviously the numbers aren't going to be precise, but the general idea is putting Salem and Eugene in one district.   The numbers actually work pretty well for the most part,  Washington and Yamhill are almost exactly one district with 2018 numbers.

Multnomah County	811880
Clackamas County	416075
Clatsop County	39764
Columbia County	52377
Tillamook County	26787
Total	1346883
Districts	1.928382593
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Washington County	597695
Yamhill County	107002
Total	704697
Districts	1.008940961
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Eugene (City)	171,245
Salem (City)	173,442
Benton County	92101
Lincoln County	49388
Polk County	85234
Total	571,410
Districts	0.818108995

I think the northwest rural counties are a bit ugly, but not terrible.  

[Nyvin]

Most of Columbia's population is in the southeast and connected rather well to Metro Portland, I think it fits great with Multnomah.  

I don't think bringing Bend into the western districts is feasible, since Oregon state law prohibits "dividing Communities of Common Interests" and at some point (2000..?) all the counties east of the Cascades (including Hood River) are a COI.  

Clatsop and Tillamook probably don't go all that well with Multnomah, but they don't go well with anything really, even Washington.   Right now Clatsop is with OR-1 and Tillamook is in OR-5, which really doesn't make much sense, but again nothing really does with either one.  If anything they probably should all be grouped with a "Coastal Oregon" district going down to Lane County.  They're all pretty isolated.  

Probably the biggest problem is that Salem and Eugene would both want to have their own districts, rather than be lumped together.   Since Eugene has more Dem voters it would pretty much dominate the primary, thus the district.   Salem voters would hate that.