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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 96804 times)
AustralianSwingVoter
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« on: November 22, 2017, 05:38:08 pm »

Map of states with 2012/2016 PVI currently available.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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Posts: 3,376
Australia


« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2020, 12:56:19 am »



1 - D+23 (48% BVAP)
2 - D+22 (48% BVAP)
3 - D+6
4 - D+26 (57% HVAP)
5 - D+21
6 - D+16 (39% HVAP)
7 - D+22 (48% BVAP)
8 - D+8
9 - D+8
10 - D+7
11 - D+6
12 - R+19
13 - D+6
14 - D+12
15 - R+19
16 - R+13
17 - D+4

A different take on an Illinois Dem gerrymander. All sitting dem congressmen keep their own seperate
districts.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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Posts: 3,376
Australia


« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2020, 08:22:52 pm »

There should be more districts going into Chicagoland, but you are on the right track.

You can already draw 2 Dem seats downstate (the 2 squiggles). You can't really get up to a 15-2 map without far worse boundaries and annoying a lot of incumbent D congressmen.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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Posts: 3,376
Australia


« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2020, 10:38:13 pm »

There should be more districts going into Chicagoland, but you are on the right track.

You can already draw 2 Dem seats downstate (the 2 squiggles). You can't really get up to a 15-2 map without far worse boundaries and annoying a lot of incumbent D congressmen.

I was trying to say what should happen (as egregious as possible of a gerrymander should be drawn, and if it gets struck down for partisan gerrymandering, that is win-win), not what would necessarily in fact happen.

I wouldn't trust that downstate Dem districts will necessarily stay Dem - it is safer to draw them into Chicagoland than to assume that they won't become more Republican (in particular Cheri Bustos' district).

You can draw 15-2 though, i.e. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294399.msg6543428#msg6543428

My two downstate districts are still D+4 and D+6. The 13th voted for Clinton by 12 points. In 2016 it actually swung about half a point to Clinton. You can argue the 17th could be vulnerable, however Clinton still won it by 5 points. If you're really concerned about the 17th you can simply give it Rockford as well to shore it up, though that does make all the Chicagoland districts a bit weaker.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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Posts: 3,376
Australia


« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2020, 07:18:48 pm »



1 - D+22 (48% BVAP)
2 - D+25 (48% BVAP)
3 - D+6 (Clinton+16)
4 - D+34 (71% HVAP)
5 - D+20
6 - D+6 (Clinton+16)
7 - D+37 (48% BVAP)
8 - D+6 (Clinton+19)
9 - D+6 (Clinton+22)
10 - D+6 (Clinton+19)
11 - D+6 (Clinton+18)
12 - R+20
13 - D+1 (Trump+1)
14 - D+2 (Clinton+6)
15 - R+20
16 - R+4 (Trump+6)
17 - D+1 (Trump+4)

A more realistic map of Illinois.
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