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  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 95756 times)
#Split California In 4
Solid4096
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Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

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« on: December 04, 2017, 05:10:39 pm »

so far, are there any states that are forced to change congressional district maps from 2016-2018 based on court orders?

if so, which states?
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2017, 04:25:01 pm »

If there were 5821 seats in the House, and DC + the 5 territories had full representation, the 2010 census gives this
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2017, 05:04:39 pm »


Is it possible to create a D-leaning seat in Wyoming with 10 seats? Pretty sure an R-leaning seat in Hawaii is still impossible with 25 seats (or DC with 11 seats, VT with 12 seats).

Probably not.

I doubt it would even be possible to create an Obama 2008 seat.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2018, 04:34:56 pm »
« Edited: January 06, 2018, 05:39:44 pm by Solid4096 »

I just calculated this.

For the difference between the most populated district and the least populated district to go below a factor of 1.5, there would need to be at least 843 seats (843rd seat is DE-03).

It falls again at 930 seats (SD-03).

Another low at 1394 seats (MT-05).

Another low at 1588 seats (ND-04).

Finally goes below a factor of 1.25 at 1608 seats (RI-06).

Another new low at 1705 seats (VT-04).

Another new low at 1741 seats (ME-08).

Another new low at 1753 seats (NH-08).

Finally goes below a factor of 1.2 at 1941 seats (AK-05).

Another new low at 2075 seats (SD-06).

Another new low at 2226 seats (DE-07).

Another new low at 2260 seats (ID-12).

I do not feel like calculating any more.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2018, 02:33:26 pm »

Something of note, is that if NY-11 connected Staten Island to Queens instead of to Brooklyn, it could have a PVI at about D+04 or D+05 (tested this months ago, just posted it now so memory not perfect).
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 02:07:52 pm »

I think one could uber pack Nevada Republicans if they were to take a narrow strip along the California border to connect Democratic areas of Washoe County and Carson City to Clark County, and allow a large chuck of Republican areas in Clark County to be pushed in with other Republican areas.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 03:17:25 pm »

I think one could uber pack Nevada Republicans if they were to take a narrow strip along the California border to connect Democratic areas of Washoe County and Carson City to Clark County, and allow a large chuck of Republican areas in Clark County to be pushed in with other Republican areas.

That would probably be too hard given the obscenely large precinct sizes in Esmeralda, Mineral, and Nye. Those precincts are bigger than some states

There are no laws preventing the splitting of precincts, even if DRA cannot do such a thing. They could literally make an extremely small strip right along the border that takes 0 people.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2019, 12:45:28 pm »

If the goal of the CA commission is to make competitive seats, why does it not follow a map similar to 538's redistricting?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Competitive

Currently the 7 Safe GOP seats seem like a fig leaf.

Many of the seats that were supposed to be competitive turned Safe D in 2016.
Some of the seats that were supposed to be Safe R even turned competitive or Safe D in 2016.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,238


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2019, 11:28:40 am »

Actually, I'm not sure I like the AR Dems comparison.  Romney got >60% in AR in 2012.  If the 2024 Dem candidate got >60% in Texas while losing the election, how the maps are drawn will be completely irrelevant and Dems would control everything there by the 2026 election at the latest.  
Still possible to draw a D+4 seat in Arkansas that would have voted for both Obama12 and Clinton16 with whole Counties, and a D+5 or D+6 seat by splitting a County. I think it was more the psychological aspect of drawing a gerrymander where you intend your party to still not win a majority of seats that made AR Dems feel like they had to risk it big.
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