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January 22, 2020, 02:45:52 pm
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 95074 times)
lfromnj
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« on: June 28, 2019, 03:11:37 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

Louisville cannot be gerrymandered, Anne Northup was the last stand there and Louisville got bluer and bluer until it voted out Anne Northup, Kansas City will make one of the Western MO seats competitive. Out of these, Nashville is probably the most feasible, but I don't think Republicans want to gerrymander Democratic cities and create dummymanders, as they did in NJ, VA, TX, and GA


Ky03 is Clinton +15 and Ky 4 and Ky 2 are Trump +36 and Trump +40. Easily able to combine all  for something around Trump +20 on average. Safe R.

Problem for the GOP is the KY constitution forbids more county splitting than necessary which Ky 03 can only be made to around Clinton+8 or something like that so you might as well pack it so everyone is happy.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 11:06:40 pm »



This is what I would expect an aggresive MNDFL to draw. 4 likely/Safe Metro districts + one duluth/rochester district. And if Peterson survives 2020 he can get a district that mostly resembles Basically forces  Stauber and Hagedorn to run against each other in a primary to face a democrat in a very mildy Tossup/Lean Republican district.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2019, 03:15:56 pm »

If you drawing a fair map you should draw it using 2016 and then estimate with the boundaries for 2010.

Population change is pretty big.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2020, 01:09:18 am »

Not acceptable because a Gary to indy district isn't for some reason.(jk both parties will do this)
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