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January 26, 2020, 01:50:16 pm
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 95665 times)
Sen. Dean Heller
Haley/Ryan
YaBB God
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Posts: 1,089
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: 1.57

« on: November 13, 2019, 02:53:04 am »
« edited: November 13, 2019, 02:57:43 am by Haley/Ryan »

Currently making a fair map of Texas that respects county lines and communities of interests as much as possible. Basically it would get really ugly for Republicans really quick based on population estimates. Democrats would have four seats in Dallas County alone, another safe seat in Tarrant County, a second swing seat in Tarrant County that voted for Trump and O'Rourke, three seats in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Five seats in Harris County (two light blue, Dem-trending seats), one seat in Fort Bend County, two in Bexar County, one in El Paso County, and three south Texas Democratic seats (I cleaned up the ugly bacon strips and gave Hidalgo County its own seat, another seat is Cameron plus the remainder of Hidalgo, and another is Webb to southern Bexar). Another light blue seat in the Corpus Christi MSA plus the south Texas rurals. Only seat Republicans would gain is the successor to TX-23.

And the Collin County seat I'm drawing would have only been Trump +9. O'Rourke almost definitely won that.

So that's 20 Democratic seats and another 3 swing seats that are also trending Dem fast. Republicans better hope that they control the map drawing process indefinitely here since when the time comes that they don't, they're gonna lose a ton of seats in the metros

> 20 democratic seats

> fair
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Sen. Dean Heller
Haley/Ryan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,089
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: 1.57

« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2019, 02:55:56 am »

Republicans are going to draw TX-32 as a vote sink in 2021,TX-23 is going to remain largely the same but a more republican piece of El Paso will be added,IF republicans somehow hold TX-23 they’re planning on screwing Chip Roy,but since it seems TX-23 will flip they’ll lock up Roy,and finally Travis county will be getting a dem vote sink.........

That would be pretty stupid, considering it's pretty easy to draw a map where those districts are all safe (at least with 36 districts, idk about 39)
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