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January 27, 2020, 10:11:29 am
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  US House Redistricting: General (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 95725 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« on: September 15, 2019, 01:30:20 pm »

Currently making a fair map of Texas that respects county lines and communities of interests as much as possible. Basically it would get really ugly for Republicans really quick based on population estimates. Democrats would have four seats in Dallas County alone, another safe seat in Tarrant County, a second swing seat in Tarrant County that voted for Trump and O'Rourke, three seats in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Five seats in Harris County (two light blue, Dem-trending seats), one seat in Fort Bend County, two in Bexar County, one in El Paso County, and three south Texas Democratic seats (I cleaned up the ugly bacon strips and gave Hidalgo County its own seat, another seat is Cameron plus the remainder of Hidalgo, and another is Webb to southern Bexar). Another light blue seat in the Corpus Christi MSA plus the south Texas rurals. Only seat Republicans would gain is the successor to TX-23.

And the Collin County seat I'm drawing would have only been Trump +9. O'Rourke almost definitely won that.

So that's 20 Democratic seats and another 3 swing seats that are also trending Dem fast. Republicans better hope that they control the map drawing process indefinitely here since when the time comes that they don't, they're gonna lose a ton of seats in the metros
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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Posts: 1,446
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2019, 04:14:08 pm »

If you drawing a fair map you should draw it using 2016 and then estimate with the boundaries for 2010.

Population change is pretty big.

I know, I couldn't find the 2016 files though. So I basically left the urban seats underpopulated roughly 60k each.

And Republicans are hurt big time by geography I realized, particularly in Harris County. The Republicans are mostly clustered in northwest Harris County and the eastern part of the county. You basically have to gerrymander the county to give them more than two seats.
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