The Senate today, or as of January 2005 to be exact…
The Democrats are going to have to make inroads in the South again and to do that they do have a number of strong candidates for some of the races that will emerge in states like Mississippi, Virginia and Tennessee. At the same time Jim Talent will be stepping down in Missouri and Rick Santorum will be high on the list of Democratic targets.
So the Dems will probably be targeting… PA, MS, TN, VA and MO… while at the same time having to defend seats in FL, MN and possibly WI and NY added to this you’re bound to have a “surprise retirement” or two like with Campbell and Breaux this year. As things stand I’d say the Democrats should make minor net gains perhaps one or two seats while also possibly losing in NY if Rudy runs and in WI if Kohl retires… If everything went perfectly for the Dems they’d be looking at net gains of around 6 seats, but it won’t so 2-3 is most likely, that said it’s a long way off…
Best case for Democrats…
Best case for Republicans…
Assuming that Warner and Giuliani run, this is the most likely situation…
…so net gain of +2 for the Democrats.
1) Who are these people who can take back the south, or any seats there for the Dems, other than Warner? They better have absolutly no connection to any national Democrats or they are toast.
2) Why is Talent "stepping down"?
3) I know that it sucks to be a moderate Democrat in a party that has swung so far left that they are no longer electable nationally, but that doesn't mean you have to be dillusional.
1) If Harold Ford runs in TN, he might win. Warner in VA and Moore in MS
2) I'm pretty sure Talent said he would step down after one term.
