NC-2: Etheridge down 46/41 (SUSA)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Renee Ellmers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOiPylM_KDA

If she wins, it would be the upset of the cycle...

Ellmers did just fine fencing with Anderson Cooper. In fact, I would give her the match on points. She is no pushover. She is entitled to her opinion that the Mosque should not be built, and entitled to point out that Etheridge did not take a stand on it, until she ran her commercial.  And yes, I think the Mosque should be built, but that is just my opinion. There are arguments to be made on both sides.

It's not an argument for a Congressman to be having. It's a non-issue and when someone express their outrage about it, it reveals their racist/xenophobic tendencies. Really Torie? I thought she got destroyed by Cooper. Maybe if I wiped my memory and had no knowledge of any sort of history, I would say she won.

There are no arguments to be made on both sides. This is an issue about religious freedom and when some national group wants to go against local governmental procedure to try and stop its construction, it's wrong. It's not an issue for Congress to have any say in. Personal opinion does not matter, this is a private establishment that wants to build the cultural center.

You must really hate Etheridge to be playing devil's advocate on this one.

Did he follow through and send Joe "arrest the reporter!" Miller money is what I want to know. Or is it okay if the candidate has his thugs rough up the undesirables?

[Rowan]

ECR, please stop posting. Permanently.

[East Coast Republican]

Dude, please stop addressing me.  Permanently.

[Phony Moderate]

Dude, please stop addressing me.  Permanently.

You're not as clever as you think you are, little boy.

[East Coast Republican]

Dude, please stop addressing me.  Permanently.

You're not as clever as you think you are, little boy.

Post amended.  You're most likely younger than I am.

How do you know what cleverness is?  You consider cleverness calling someone racist for no reason.

[Phony Moderate]

Dude, please stop addressing me.  Permanently.

You're not as clever as you think you are, little boy.

This is coming from a 15 year old I presume?

16, actually.

[East Coast Republican]

lol

Well, at least it's great you're taking a high level of interest in world affairs.

[Torie]

Replying to the post above directed to me from TDFB, there is no question that the promoters have the right to build the mosque. The issue is whether the promoters can be subject to criticism for exercising that right. The Iman who is the front man is kind of a shadowy figure (at least weird and camelion like), and the source of his money (if the money is really there), is even more murky, and the motives for pushing all of this arguably less than praiseworthy.

Personally I don't mind the mosque going up, even if the sponsors are closets Jihadists and militants, because that indeed would be a testimony of the confidence of Americans that toxic ideas are just not going to get traction in this country, and as a reflection of our self confidence, our tolerance for stuff we consider execrable, because in our diverse country, we have all sorts of folks some of us consider execrable, and life goes on. That is who we are, and we take pride in that - or should.

Does that make sense?

Oh yes, I think there is a real possibility that the whole Mosque thing is a set up, and there was never any intention to build it, or at least a realistic belief that the money would be raised, and the whole point of the exercise was in fact to "expose" Americans as a bunch of paranoid, hypocritical bigots to the Arab street, and the Islamic world at large. As I say, I just don't trust the motives of these particular promoters. So, calling their bluff would just be a delightful bonus to it all.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This is a conservative outfit that ordered the poll, so we'll see what happens. It flipped in 1994 and then flipped back in 1996, so this wouldn't be a long term GOP hold.

I think you mean the neighboring NC-4 (which is still represented by the same guy actually)

Actually, strike that, this district flipped too.  Though the previous one was more competitive (Obama won the current iteration by a few points).  If the republicans can block a Democratic gerrymander, then they should be able to hold this seat pretty easily.

It's not that easy. It already includes the entirety of Johnston County, the only real Republican bastion in that area. You can't really mess with eastern NC because of the VRA, can't move into NC-13 or 4 without making it more Democratic obviously, and the bordering areas in NC-07 are either Democratic or swing. The only real option is to give it Moore county from NC-06 in exchange for some of the rural areas north of there. Total makes it about 52% McCain. Not safe for someone as bad as Ellmer.

[SamInTheSouth]

This is a conservative outfit that ordered the poll, so we'll see what happens. It flipped in 1994 and then flipped back in 1996, so this wouldn't be a long term GOP hold.

The problem with your logic is that the Republicans have a good shot to win control of the North Carolina legislature in this election so they will control redistricting and likely redraw NC-02 to make it more Republican friendly should Ellmers win.

[SamInTheSouth]

Do you guys even know who Renee Ellmers is? She's one of the worst candidates fielded by the GOP, up there with Maes, Miller, and O'Donnell.

I agree with you and that what makes this poll all the more shocking, assuming it's accurate.  This isn't the first time she's lead him, though in polling.

[DrScholl]

The problem with your logic is that the Republicans have a good shot to win control of the North Carolina legislature in this election so they will control redistricting and likely redraw NC-02 to make it more Republican friendly should Ellmers win.

As another poster mentioned, it's not possible that they can actually turn this into a safe really Republican district. And, with North Carolina having Democratic Governor in Beverly Perdue, I doubt she would approve any huge Republican gerrymandering.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's no veto power over redistricting in North Carolina.

[Dgov]

The problem with your logic is that the Republicans have a good shot to win control of the North Carolina legislature in this election so they will control redistricting and likely redraw NC-02 to make it more Republican friendly should Ellmers win.

As another poster mentioned, it's not possible that they can actually turn this into a safe really Republican district. And, with North Carolina having Democratic Governor in Beverly Perdue, I doubt she would approve any huge Republican gerrymandering.

Well, it would presumably be an incumbent-protection map, and given how many Democratic incumbents you would have to protect (especially in the Raleigh area), this district will more or less have to be strongly Republican.  The only reason the current one is even competitive is that it includes some heavily Democratic parts of Fayette and Raleigh, which would presumably be removed.

I'll predict that if the Republicans take one of the state houses, the new NC-2 will have voted about 55% McCain.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Neither Price or Miller need to be shored up. Price already represents the most Democratic majority white district in the South. Miller drew his own seat and can't really be made more Dem, add more of Raleigh you just have to shed parts of Raleigh or Greensboro. You can't shed the rural counties because they connect it. I don't see how to even draw a 55% McCain district with this one.

[Dgov]

Neither Price or Miller need to be shored up. Price already represents the most Democratic majority white district in the South. Miller drew his own seat and can't really be made more Dem, add more of Raleigh you just have to shed parts of Raleigh or Greensboro. You can't shed the rural counties because they connect it. I don't see how to even draw a 55% McCain district with this one.

you take the Outer Raliegh areas, like th 4th district's part of Wake County, Johnson county, and move it back towards the 3rd district areas.  The 13th and 4th basically just take all of Durnham, Orange counties, most of Wake county, and the North-central counties.

Remember, this would be an incumbent-protectino plan, so there's no reason to leave the swing/republican areas in the 4th or 13th district while leaving some Democrat-leaning ones in the 2nd.