NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

FWIW, Jon Ralston says that nobody in Nevada believes all those polls that show Sandoval 20-30 points ahead. He says that most internal polling shows it a 10-12 point race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't know if there is a more relevant topic where to put that information.

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/VoterRequests/EVMB/MB10G_PartyDistTurnout.pdf

In Clark County, 47% of absentee ballots cast by Democrats and 38% by Republicans. Similar to county's registration numbers, so apparently no turnout gap there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim.

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008.

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim.

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008.

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

Do you think Reid would have escaped a tough race in a different environment? No. He has 35% approval ratings and has since 2007. The only possible way for read to escape would be for Angle to not have a chance in a less Republican environment. Maybe, maybe not. There is nothing "delusional" about what I said, it is opinionated analysis. The GOP was going to take down Reid. Maybe not the NV GOP bought, paid off, bribed, prosecuted by the Reid machine into supporting him. The national GOP and conservative groups were going to take him out, or try their best. I don't like Angle, I didn't support her in the primary. The only reason I am willing to support her is to get rid of Reid. The only reason Angle has a even a chance in hell is because they are sick and tired of Reid.

Does anyone here honestly, think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

When I see personal opinion based analysis that is rational being labeled as "delusional", I take that as a personal insult and if you insist on continuing that behavior towards me, I will be sure to report every such instance of that. Learn to treat people who have a different opinion with respect, not with arrogant rank personal insults.

Does anyone here think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

Saying that Reid will lose because he said that the Iraq War was lost IS delusional. His status as majority leader would make him Republicans top target anyway.
Just look what happened to Tom Daschle, hardly a fire-breathing liberal or an extremely partisan leader.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Like I said in the other thread, second cycle in a row that the pollsters have failed in Nevada.

And Jon Ralston is again vindicated.