CT-04 & CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Republicans with Slight Leads

[muon2]

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

As AndrewCT said, I don't see how they can split CT-04.  It's basically the Connecticut Panhandle by the New York border along the LI Sound Shore.   Moving Northward along the CT border instead of into Bridgeport probably wouldn't change the makeup of the two districts much.  I suppose they could split off the more minority parts of Stamford and put them into a district with Bridgeport and into New Haven, but that would probably make CT-03 more competitive.  Plus, CT usually doesn't split towns without good reason.

Unlike MA, CT does split towns to achieve exact population equality. For instance, Shelton is split between CD 3 and 4. County lines aren't particularly respected either, since CD 4 jumps the line to include Oxford, when Shelton could have been left intact and a small piece of Stratford used to get equality.

MA splits towns in some instances, too.  There are at least 4 towns that are split between CDs.  From memory, Fall River is split between Barney Frank's CD and another (MA-10? or MA-3?).  And of course Boston is split.

When I said CT generally respects town lines, I meant there aren't many towns in a line that are split for no good reason - like you'd have to do to create a lower Greenwich/Stamford/all Bridgeport vs. Upper Greenwich/Stamford/no Bridgeport district.

Counties are pretty much irrelevant in Connecticut.  There is no county government

My point was that CT will split enough towns to get population equality. MA will create CDs that are not of exact population to avoid town splits, and CD 1, 2 and 6 include no split towns. CT could do the same and make districts that vary by a fraction of a percent to avoid some splits, but they choose population equality instead.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow. Maybe something is going on in New England. And then there was that weird poll that the Jewish CD in Brooklyn is tight. Maybe Orthodox Jewish support for Dems has just totally collapsed or something out of anger at Obama over Israel issues, etc.

The Orthodox Jews are always less Democratic than their Conservative and Reform brethren.

[Torie]

Wow. Maybe something is going on in New England. And then there was that weird poll that the Jewish CD in Brooklyn is tight. Maybe Orthodox Jewish support for Dems has just totally collapsed or something out of anger at Obama over Israel issues, etc.

The Orthodox Jews are always less Democratic than their Conservative and Reform brethren.

Yes, I know. In fact, Beverlywood, an Orthodox Jewish neighborhood in LA City, is now one of the most GOP areas of the city - meaning it is marginally GOP - sometimes.  Beverly Hills went GOP due to Iranian Jews.