What percentage of the black vote will Chafee get?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can see him getting around 40% now...

[Dgov]

No matter what he gets, it'll be a good measure of how much the Black Community thinks of Obama.  If he gets under 30% of the vote, Obama's pull with them is minimal at best.

[cinyc]

Rhode Island has black people?

Seriously, though, blacks make up only about 6-7% of the population.  Exit polls might not even get statistically significant enough data about the black vote to release it.

[Kevin]

No matter what he gets, it'll be a good measure of how much the Black Community thinks of Obama.  If he gets under 30% of the vote, Obama's pull with them is minimal at best.

Of course the dynamics of the race in Rhode Island are very complicated, as the lib Dem Gubernatorial candidate has actually positioned himself to the right of Chafee. So if anything, Chafee is probably Obama's candidate in this one, epsically given Capiro's kind words for Obama.

[cinyc]

FWIW, the 2006 RI exit poll (5% black) broke out the black vote.  The 2008 RI exit poll (6% black) did not.

[Dgov]

No matter what he gets, it'll be a good measure of how much the Black Community thinks of Obama.  If he gets under 30% of the vote, Obama's pull with them is minimal at best.

Of course the dynamics of the race in Rhode Island are very complicated, as the lib Dem Gubernatorial candidate has actually positioned himself to the right of Chafee. So if anything, Chafee is probably Obama's candidate in this one, epsically given Capiro's kind words for Obama.

Well, then it's a good measure of Partisan vs Ideological loyalty to the Democratic party.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There are plenty of precincts in Providence with over one third of the population being African-American. If someone got precinct results from RI and found that Caprio's margin of victory actually decreased based off of percentage of blacks, we would know that their support of Caprio would be exceptionally weak.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The area to watch:



22% black. Also 50% Hispanic though so might dilute things a little (then again the blacks no doubt vote at a far higher rate than the Hispanics.)

[King]

I can see him getting around 40% now...

2 out of 5 seems about right, I could see black person #3 voting with his wife though and it dipping down to 20%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Providence has a large enough black population to render it non-insignificant. We're not talking about Wyoming here.

[cinyc]

Providence has a large enough black population to render it non-insignificant. We're not talking about Wyoming here.

Again, for exit poll purposes, the RI black population is on the cusp of statistical significance.  In 2006, the RI exits broke out the black vote.  In 2008, that data wasn't available.

You will be able to get RI precinct level data eventually.  It is available for the 2008 presidential election here.  I don't know whether it will be available on election night.  If it is not, RI, like the rest of New England, reports results by town.

[Lunar]

He'll get John, so a fairly high %

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is there anywhere with precinct results up yet?

[RBH]

http://www.ri.gov/election/results/2010/general_election/providence/

go for it