MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This strikes me as the type of district where SUSA's GOP bias comes in. All their accurate House polls were in the suburbs.

This district isn't really marginal, no Republican has carried it since 1994 (by that I'm referring to statewide candidates. Coleman, Pawlenty, all downballot Republicans all lost it every time they ran.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tons of pro-choice candidates have won this district and it elects tons of pro-choicers on the local level. Abortion is not that big of an issue here. The pro-lifers who don't like Oberstar are the ones who normally vote Republican anyway and I doubt they voted for Al Franken (who carried the district.)

Another odd SurveyUSA House poll. The district is more Democratic leaning than it's PVI indicates.

But it also seems like the kind of place that one would assume would trend hard Republican this year, no?

I'd bet the Tea Party is about as popular in Duluth as it is where I live.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Duluth isn't rural, nor is it particularly more blue collar than most places really.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, there is a shift in the population balance in the district and we can expect this to have an impact on its politics. But it's not as dramatic as you think. In 2000 St. Louis county made up 32.6% of the district, that was down to 30.4% by 2006-2008. The two main Twin Cities commuting counties made up 11.8% in 2000, up in 2006-2008 to 13.7%.

Yeah I was about to point that out. There's three State Senate seats in the northeastern corner from Duluth onward. There's one in the exurbs. And it's held by a Democrat (though he's likely losing no doubt.) Also not everywhere is working class, in addition to Duluth liberals you have some latte liberal types along the coast. Cook County is a huge latte liberal haven, as are some northern towns like Ely.

Anyway reports from a local progressive blog show that Oberstar and the Iron Range machine are definitely gearing up for a strong GOTV movement.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Speaking of which it doesn't appear to be as bad here as elsewhere or else Emmer might lead in some polls.

Now I know the standard reply will be that he's a bad candidate...but the whole point is that if it's so bad you don't have to be a good candidate to win. Sharron Angle obviously isn't a good candidate (though granted she'd also be losing to basically anyone except Reid.) And Al did make a good point in that Dayton has to be way further ahead in this district than these numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://mncampaignreport.com/diary/7634/cravaack-campaign-crumbling-in-cd-8

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something to consider is that even if Cravaack has an early lead St. Louis County is always the last part of the state to report. And I'm sure if it's still close they'll "find" a bunch of votes somewhere. Also that Dayton is hitting that area hard as key to his GOTV strategy and that his running mate is from there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well from what I heard tonight Duluth is pretty revved up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Quite.

Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?

He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

We have an awesome bench in that district, but we'll also have to see how redistricting affects it.