MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46

[Torie]

This does not surprise me, but apparently it surprises most of the political class. Where's BRTD?    Anyway, like magic RCP bounces MN-8 into the tossup category, as its over/under number bounces up to 65.

If I had to guess, Oberstar is going down. His handling of the nexus of abortion and HCR combined with the environment, and his marginal district, is just a bit too much for him I suspect.

[Torie]

Could this mean that MN-07 is also in danger? Geographically similar, with MN-07 being very Republican, relatively.

No, the Dem incumbent (Peterson I think his name is) there does his own thing, and the big Blue Babe district marches to its own drummer. It is sort of like ME-2, quite idiosyncratic. Heck, that global warming skeptic Snowguy lives there.

[Torie]

This strikes me as the type of district where SUSA's GOP bias comes in. All their accurate House polls were in the suburbs.

This district isn't really marginal, no Republican has carried it since 1994 (by that I'm referring to statewide candidates. Coleman, Pawlenty, all downballot Republicans all lost it every time they ran.)

If Oberstar were less entrenched, he would probably be toast. He's vulnerable though, because the pro lifers are after him as a traitor to the cause. MN-8 has been steadily trending GOP. Obama carried it by an unimpressive 54-46 (just a tad more than his national margin), and the national swing this year from 2008 will swamp that spread.

[Torie]

MN-8 has been steadily trending GOP. Obama carried it by an unimpressive 54-46 (just a tad more than his national margin),

Mmm... hmm... that's true enough and part of the decades-long general shift in the geography of Democratic support as the party morphs into something other than the odd coalition it used to be (part pale imitation of a social democratic party (the relevant part in this case), part party-of-the-rural-south). But the change here has been slower than in most other mining areas and the old base vote less prone to fracture and rebel.

Some of the trend is due to the iron range having a lower and lower percentage slice of the district, and the Twin City exurbs having a higher and higher slice, due to population shifts. It is just a matter of time before the GOP margins in the southern part of the district over-match the Dem ones in the north, given current voting patterns. So are the iron range folks going to vote has heavily as the exurban folks vis a vis the past, and in particular 2008? We shall see.

[Torie]

Yes, the swing seems more muted in Minnesota than the rest of the Great Lakes states.

[Torie]

No, we should believe Oberstar's internal, which shows him "up 3-1 with independents" but that he refuses to release.

Undecideds, not independents. Do I believe that the undecideds (a relative handful of voters in any event), are breaking 3-1 for Oberstar?  No.