MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose a shockingly close result isn't out of the question (Oberstar is getting on and that's not a good thing when a big swing is on) but I have trouble seeing this, especially with Dayton leading in the polls (however narrowly). I mean, obviously, if it is anywhere near this close or if (heaven forbid) Oberstar actually loses then we're dealing with a landslide and - probably - a near total Democratic collapse in the Mid West.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MN-8 has been steadily trending GOP. Obama carried it by an unimpressive 54-46 (just a tad more than his national margin),

Mmm... hmm... that's true enough and part of the decades-long general shift in the geography of Democratic support as the party morphs into something other than the odd coalition it used to be (part pale imitation of a social democratic party (the relevant part in this case), part party-of-the-rural-south). But the change here has been slower than in most other mining areas and the old base vote less prone to fracture and rebel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, there is a shift in the population balance in the district and we can expect this to have an impact on its politics. But it's not as dramatic as you think. In 2000 St. Louis county made up 32.6% of the district, that was down to 30.4% by 2006-2008. The two main Twin Cities commuting counties made up 11.8% in 2000, up in 2006-2008 to 13.7%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They were already going to be slaughtered, the question is by how much.

To merely lose seats is not to be slaughtered. To be slaughtered is when you lose a load of places that you have (or at least had) no business losing in.

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Ever thought these things may be related in some way?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Yeah. I quite liked Oberstar, as far as you can like senior American congressmen. 'Rural' districts can often be remarkably unsentimental when incumbents get too old though. I mentally called it last night when I saw that he was badly underperforming in Lake county.