NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Brittain33]

Essentially, no more drawing tendrils out of Orange county to make FL-08 safe for Republicans. 

Presumably tricks like corralling the minority neighborhoods of St. Petersburg and Bradenton and sticking them into a district with Tampa to save FL-10 are out. And I wonder how they can cut cities like Fort Lauderdale into three pieces (wealthy sliver for FL-22, African-American portion, other Democrat) when it's much smaller than an existing district in size.

Corrine Brown is very angry at this amendment and is threatening to go to court.

[jaichind]

I actually live in the Oppenheimer-Cohen district.  Oppenheimer had all kinds of signs which had "SUZI" on it instead of her last name.  Both seems to have avoided party labels and Cohen emphised his endorcement from Mike Bloomberg and NY Times.  Oppenheimer  not pushing a partisan campaign in a year where Palidino's brand was a drag was a mistake.  Cohen was able to leverge his social moderation (with Bloomberg and NY Times endorcement) as well as the tax issue (housing prices are going down in the Scarsdale area but real estate taxes in absolute terms is going up plus possible increases in state income taxes) in high income Scarsdale area to lead to a possible upset.  

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How comes Washington is so slow to count its votes ? Since I woke up the reporting % has remained at 62...

[bgwah]

What I understand based on reading blogs (lol):
-King County has received 114,000 new ballots today, pushing the total on hand to about 300,000.
-King County is expecting to receive another 45,000 in the mail and from drop boxes.
-So in total, King County probably has about 345,000 ballots left.

[Holmes]

It's a mail-in vote state. Most of the votes that haven't been counted yet probably haven't arrived yet since the deadline to mail in your ballot was yesterday.

[cinyc]

They'll probably have to let McIntyre live if they want Ellmers to stay. There's not a whole lot you can do with NC-11, unless you turn it into a bizarre squidlike district. Kissell, however, is probably going to be screwed.

Who would really care about creating one more bizarre squid-like district in North Carolina?  North Carolina is already the king of bizarre squid-like districts - putting even Texas to shame.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Colorado has now been called for Bennett by the AP and CNN!

He went against the traditional "Dem in a swing state" playbook by blasting Buck every single day on abortion and other social wedge issues. Looks like it worked. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a big gender gap in this race because of that.

[bgwah]

If the remaining ~347,000 ballots in King County have the same 62.0-38.0 margin (big assumption), that would be a net gain of 83,000 for Murray.

If the ~595,000 ballots in the rest of the state kept the same 53.5-47.5 margin for Rossi, that would be a net gain of about 42,000 for Rossi.

Murray ends up winning with 51.17% in this scenario. I made a lot of big assumptions, and I know this wasn't the most advanced set of calculations (I might try to do a more detailed analysis for the non-King portion of the state later) but I have to do something while I wait for the painstakingly slow results.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Colorado has now been called for Bennett.

[cinyc]

Alaska

99% reporting

Write-Ins lead by 13588 (6.8%). It is likely to estimate than a sufficient share of them are for Murkowski.

As usual, no borough results in Alaska.

You will NEVER see a borough-level map of Alaska.  The state reports by House Districts, which sometimes straddle borough/CDP lines.  Even some precincts straddle the lines.

I will put up a map of Alaska by HD when all the precincts report, probably by tonight, Alaska Time.  Last I checked, they were at 432/438.  Miller and McAdams got absolutely pummeled in the bush HDs (37-40).

[Keystone Phil]

In other words, "President Obama, they don't have your back."  This time.

Ha! So you heard those ridiculous ads, too? That's what I get for liking rap.

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Even though Onorato (83%) and Sestak (84%) won the city big, there was more that could have been done and that could have saved them a Senate seat. Bob Brady won't like Pat Toomey as a U.S. Senator at all. Talk about polar opposites.

All that being said, you have to take note of the gigantic Republican wins here. Brady and Obama will do their recruiting but they have far less to work with now. The PA GOP, on the other hand, is at it's highest point in generations. Again, we have a Governor, a U.S. Senator, a five seat advantage in the Congressional delegation (after five pickups last night), the State Senate by a wide margin and the State House by a margin we haven't seen in awhile. In fact, that majority might grow by two seats after two recounts in Bucks county. This helps from an organizational standpoint and, most importantly, when it comes to redistricting.

[Keystone Phil]

I really am stunned at how well we did here with these races. Five pickups is awesome and we fell just a few thousand votes short of seven pickups.

The Fitzpatrick margin was the biggest shock. I wasn't the only Republican that expected a much closer race. I also can't believe how close Rothfus and Burns came to winning. I guess the idea that Rothfus had some of the best volunteers in the state wasn't a joke. Too bad he fell just short.

Marino's margin of victory was surprising, too.

[Sam Spade]

The Fitzpatrick margin was the biggest shock.

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

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Republicans should never have lost that seat in the first place - at the first decent Republican wave, Carney was dead.  I'm more surprised Kanjo finally lost.

[Keystone Phil]

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

Other involved people were stunned.

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Yeah but Carney is personally popular, is a great (though apparently not great enough) campaigner and Marino had some issues. A Marino win wasn't a crazy idea but Marino by ten certainly wasn't a common prediction.

[Sam Spade]

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

Other involved people were stunned.

If a wave was going to hit involving Obama, Bucks County was a quite logical place for it to land, given his base.

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Yeah but Carney is personally popular, is a great (though apparently not great enough) campaigner and Marino had some issues. A Marino win wasn't a crazy idea but Marino by ten certainly wasn't a common prediction.
[/quote]

But with that district, none of that really mattered.  As one should expect.

[ucscgaldamez]

Will Rossi lose a third time in a row? If he loses, I feel he should give up trying. : )

[Skill and Chance]

What I understand based on reading blogs (lol):
-King County has received 114,000 new ballots today, pushing the total on hand to about 300,000.
-King County is expecting to receive another 45,000 in the mail and from drop boxes.
-So in total, King County probably has about 345,000 ballots left.

What are the implications here?

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

b

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

I agree about the LI seat, but I'm a little surprised that the Dems think they lost the Buffalo seat.  The Erie County Board of Elections' last numbers had the Dem up by 2,500 - though the AP count differs.  I guess the Erie County Board of Elections is almost as incompetent as Westchester's.  Having only 75% of the vote in the on the next day is inexcusable - almost Bridgeport-level inexcusable.

They must know where the missing precincts are in Erie County, I guess.

Ah - I see what I did - looked at Erie but not Niagara County.  All is in now.  The Republican is ahead by 468 going into absentees.  That will likely hold.

You can thank Paladino's coattails for that pickup - too the extent coattails even exits.

Westchester is still stuck on 80%.

[Silent Hunter]

OK, I'm going to have to say it: Harry Reid is a political Time Lord.

[J. J.]

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

This basically was the pattern from the 1980's, and in some races, into the 1990s.  The Republican candidate runs at registration in the SE, losing it.  Then he runs at registration in the T, winning it.  Then they get to SW, and run well ahead of registration.

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Mine wasn't bad, but it was just above 2006 rates.

How did the turnout in the suburbs do versus 2006?

BTW, at 110 seats in the State House, this is the highest majority since 1976 for any party.  For the Republicans, it is the highest number since 1932.

[Joe Republic]

Angle losing Washoe is the funniest part for me.

[Keystone Phil]

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

This basically was the pattern from the 1980's, and in some races, into the 1990s.  The Republican candidate runs at registration in the SE, losing it.  Then he runs at registration in the T, winning it.  Then they get to SW, and run well ahead of registration.

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Mine wasn't bad, but it was just above 2006 rates.

How did the turnout in the suburbs do versus 2006?

Eyeballing it, this year looks better.

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I thought we hit 112 already.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

OK, I'm going to have to say it: Harry Reid is a political Time Lord.

Lol, I thought that was Clinton after 94.

[Mr. Morden]

Has Alvin Greene actually conceded defeat?  I would love to see his concession speech.

Morden he probably has no phone too call and concede with.......and no microphone or podium for a speech.....unless the outhouse counts.

Lack of a phone wouldn't prevent him from making a speech.  One of the local media outlets should have sent some reporters to "Alvin Greene campaign headquarters" (whatever that might be) to cover his election night speech.

[bgwah]

WA update:

Adams, Lewis, Pend Oreille (ultra Rossi) and Skagit (lean Rossi) updated. Murray lead down to 0.96 from 0.98. Will be a lot more updates through 7pm or so.