NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[bgwah]

Will Rossi lose a third time in a row? If he loses, I feel he should give up trying. : )

But who will run in 2012!? Sure, McKenna will for Governor, but Rossi can still challenge Cantwell!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

cnn exit poll FL : Rubio wins 55 % of latinos (12 % of the voters).

Meek wins 76 % of the blacks voters (11 % of the voters).

And of course the actual numbers proved Crist had a chance.  Great job Meek.

 . . . assuming the same turnout and that at least 98 percent of the combined Crist + Meek voters would have still voted for Crist.

[Sam Spade]

Buerkle now ahead in NY-25....I guess it will come down to absentees
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2010/11/ann_marie_buerkle_picks_up_vot.html

659 votes is a decent margin at this point.

[bgwah]

Snohomish County will update at 7:00 PM PST. That will give us a much better picture of how WA-2 might go, though I suspect Koster will maintain his lead.

We'll also get Whatcom County at 5:00 PM.

[redcommander]

FYI There isn't a new Democratic firewall! It was the tea party's fault for senate losses and crappy candidates recruitment in some places.

[redcommander]

Buerkle now ahead in NY-25....I guess it will come down to absentees
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2010/11/ann_marie_buerkle_picks_up_vot.html

Good news.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

     I am ever so slightly amused by the Democrats pulling out every close race & retaining a majority of U.S. House seats in North Carolina of all places.

NC is the craziest Democrat-drawn gerrymander in the country. The state legislature is GOP now, so that advantage quite possibly wont last long.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

     I am ever so slightly amused by the Democrats pulling out every close race & retaining a majority of U.S. House seats in North Carolina of all places.

NC is the craziest Democrat-drawn gerrymander in the country. The state legislature is GOP now, so that advantage quite possibly wont last long.

I think we can be pretty sure that it won't last beyond the next round of redistricting. Which...

[memphis]

Too early for a rough estimate of national popular vote? I rather doubt it's the R+15 crap that gallup was shovelling.

[redcommander]

Will Rossi lose a third time in a row? If he loses, I feel he should give up trying. : )

But who will run in 2012!? Sure, McKenna will for Governor, but Rossi can still challenge Cantwell!

Republicans in Washington need someone fresh to run against Cantwell. Perhaps Sam Reed or Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Are there any State senators that could run that could run an excellent campaign and make a competitive race like Rossi did in 2004?

[bgwah]

King counted another 44,996 votes, so it probably has about 300,000 left to count.

The new batch voted 67-33 Murray, pushing King to 63-37 Murray (from 62-38) and thus increases her statewide lead from ~14,000 to ~31,000, or from 0.96% to 2.06%.

EDIT: fixed some numbers.

[redcommander]

It's done. Republicans should have found a better candidate to put up. I don't see Rossi making up a margin that large.

[bgwah]

WA-2 Tracker:

Skagit County update pushes Koster's lead down from 50.41-49.59 to 50.38-49.62

[Torie]

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Yes you are right, Reds4.

                             Buerkle   Maffei   Margin   
Wayne existing        8,925         5,542     3,383   0.6
Wayne projected   14,875         9,237     5,638   
Buerkle gain                                             2,255   
Existing Maffei lead 93,090      95,286      2,196   
Projected Buerkle margin                          59   


Yes, Sam, Larsen is certainly still in the hunt. You are right. He needs to do about 2% better with what remains than he has done with what came before.

            existing     Projected     Diff       Larsen margin  Larsen %
                      per spreadsheet         needed to win  needed to win    
Koster   87,687   137,591   49,904   47,865       0.486            
Larsen   86,258   134,842   48,584   50,623       0.514            
            
                             2,749   98,487     2,758
Koster      50.4%
Larsen      49.6%

So 63-65 net seat GOP gain, with WA-2, NY-25 and CA-11 still in play.

As an update to this for NY-25, instead of a projected Buerkle lead of 59, it ended up being 659.  Apparently, 9,500 absentee ballots are left to count, 7,000 of then in Onondaga County.

So if Maffei is to win now, he needs to run with the remaining 7,000 absentees in Onondaga County at about the double the margin did run with the votes already counted there, to about a 16% margin from an 8% margin. The assumes that Buerkle runs about as well with the 2,500 absentees from the other three counties in the district, as he did in the votes counted there to date. Buerkle clearly has a pretty big edge now.

[5280]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

That area is turning very liberal, very fast.  It is essentially the Fairfax, VA of the west.  It has probably ceased to be competitive in national elections.

All the liberals moving from CA and the west coast, Illinois and New York. You can thank them bringing their ideologies with them and ruining it.  TX and AZ is looking better each day. CO = east CA

[bgwah]

WA-2 Tracker

Whatcom County has further decreased Koster's lead to 50.10-49.90!

If Snohomish (the biggest county) follows the lead of Skagit and Whatcom, Larsen should take the lead.

Koster's lead has shrunk from 1,429 to just 363.

[ajc0918]

My first post-election response...

Okay well I attended the Crist election night party, and I will say even though almost everyone already knew he was going to lose the atmosphere wasn't too upset. I mean obviously some of the campaign staff was crying, and people weren't like jumping everywhere...but I'd say everyone who was there was a loyal supporter of Crist through thick and thin.

I'm not sure why, but before Crist came out to concede there was so much energy( it certainly didn't sound like the end) AND they played "Don't Stop Believing" when he walked onstage... lol. Crist won his home county by about 2% (I think). Sure not by a lot, but a win is a win I guess considering he lost by 20 points.

But what I basically am saying is I don't think Crist is done politically, nationally most likely, but I could really see him running for Congress (FL-10) if Bill Young retires or for St.Pete Mayor (next election is in 2013).

Anyway I got a very interesting feeling at the event and thought I should share. lol

[Vepres]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was when it was drawn, but things have changed.

[5280]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was when it was drawn, but things have changed.

Are they getting redrawn next year?

[bgwah]

If you saw my last post, ignore it since I inverted the numbers.

Larsen has now taken the lead with 51.10% of the vote to Koster's 49.90%!

San Juan and Island Counties updated, and gave Larsen a net gain of 760 votes, so Larsen now leads by 397.

I'm not coming to any conclusions until Snohomish County reports in 90 minutes, but all of the other counties in WA-2 have been more Dem today than yesterday.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

How could he get through a Republican primary for FL-10 though? Or would he run as an indie?

I could actually see mayor of St. Pete happening though.

[Ogre Mage]

Interesting quote from the spokesman for the WA Secretary of State on the Murray/Rossi race:

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http://www.politico.com/blogs/senate-races-2010/

[ajc0918]

How could he get through a Republican primary for FL-10 though? Or would he run as an indie?

I could actually see mayor of St. Pete happening though.

lol yeah he wouldn't run as a republican. Idk maybe Indie...
St.Pete mayor is non-partisan, so that would be easy.

BTW, I'd just like to point out that I'm a pretty die-hard republican. Crist is probably the first non-republican candidate I've supported, but when people leave comments like this on my FB

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It really pisses me off. Especially considering that I've never worked harder for a candidate than I have for Crist and I've only been chastised for supporting Crist since like April. You really think people should have the decency to respect my choice.

Excuse my rant, but I'm only 17 and I've really never cared about losing a race until now.

[Eraserhead]

Has Alvin Greene actually conceded defeat?  I would love to see his concession speech.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6thr9t6igSo

[Skill and Chance]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was when it was drawn, but things have changed.

Are they getting redrawn next year?

Yes, and the GOP took the State House of Representatives, so it will be a compromise map, probably favoring the Democrats overall though because they have the State Senate and the Governor.  I would imagine that Gardiner's and Perlmutter's districts get shored up to make them both safe.  If they are daring, the Dems might push to make CO-03 easier for Salazar to retake, but other than that, the status quo should be more or less preserved.