NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Sam Spade]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

Yeah...but NY-13 had a meltdown.   Conservative Party pitted against Conservative Party, Hasidic groups in Brooklyn goin' against each other, Conservative Borough President behind the Democrat, crazy Republican from the past emerging to threaten to claim the nomination in a coup.... and it all mattered less than a ballot line where one candidate withdraw and endorsed the major party candidate.

It's not like the Republican who won in NY-23 was a Scozzafava

Staten Island is a weird place.  As you should know.  After all, Michael Grimm did actively seek Sarah Palin's endorsement.

Besides, McMahon came off as a bit of a nut during the campaign.  Voters didn't seem to have much tolerance for nuts this year, as we've noticed.

[cinyc]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

It's kind of hard to believe that Republicans would be stuck at holding only 2 NY CDs forever.  Especially when certain districts (NY-20, in particular) were Gerrymandered to elect Republicans (in contrast with NY-22, which is Gerrymandered to keep Hinchey in office).   With President Bush out of office, there's no reason for NY CDs not to revert to their pro-Republican tendencies of the recent past.  Even NY-04 was closer than usual, reverting back to the margins McCarthy last received in 1998.

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

It's kind of hard to believe that Republicans would be stuck at holding only 2 NY CDs forever.  Especially when certain districts (NY-20, in particular) were Gerrymandered to elect Republicans (in contrast with NY-22, which is Gerrymandered to keep Hinchey in office).   With President Bush out of office, there's no reason for NY CDs not to revert to their pro-Republican tendencies of the recent past.  Even NY-04 was closer than usual, reverting back to the margins McCarthy last received in 1998.

Yeah obviously they were going to expand out of those 2, especially with  the [outdated] GOP gerrymanders, just a few of those 7 surprise me as I was following those races.

[bgwah]

Yeah, I think Larsen has this in the bag.

What a relief. Having a GOP congressman = depressing thought.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Whoa, that's a surprise. The NY Times still has Bishop as the winner with 51%. I guess they didn't get the message. So the Republicans are leading in SEVEN New York House races? Damn. Well, all of those 7 were gerrymandered for a Republican and Owens survived and Higgins landslided, so it wasn't like they made a clean sweep in the districts gerrymandered for them. Hopefully Maffei and Bishop can pull it out.

[Smash255]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

In the end I think Bishop will pull it out.    Out of about 13,000 absentee ballots issued, 9,901 have been returned, and breakout to 39.92-36.47 in favor of the GOP, an advantage of 3.45% for the GOP.    Active voter rolls in the district is 35.87-29.90 in favor of the GOP, advantage of 5.97% for the GOP.

Combine that with the fact Election Day turnout likely favored the GOP, you are probably looking at somewhere along the lines of an 8-9 point registration advantage on Election Day compared to the 3.45% advantage of the absentee ballots.  Also keep in mind that the Absentee ballots are likely disproportionately from the Hamptons, and that area is typically more Democratic than registration numbers would suggest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the end I think Bishop will pull it out.

Guess that means he's done for.

[ucscgaldamez]

I'm looking at the Washington returns and it looks like Murray will win by about 4% and may surpass 100k over Rossi.

[Alcon]

I'm looking at the Washington returns and it looks like Murray will win by about 4% and may surpass 100k over Rossi.

At least.  She has a shot at 5%.

[Ronnie]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-20, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

[Smash255]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

as I said earlier the fact that the GOP advantage with the absentees is less than the district as a whole (with an even larger registration advantage considering the turnout) as well as the heavier concentration on the east end, Altschuler likely needs more than a 400 vote lead without the absentees to win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis?  

[Associate Justice PiT]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis? 

     Clearly a recount would overturn Pelosi's 65% lead.

[minionofmidas]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

I still think Chuck Fleischmann in TN-03 is a closet Jew. He doesn't mention religion at all on his website, and, come on, his last name is Fleischmann.

Which is more German than Jewish.

[Lunar]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

I still think Chuck Fleischmann in TN-03 is a closet Jew. He doesn't mention religion at all on his website, and, come on, his last name is Fleischmann.

Well this TV ad's script says he's a Christian

http://www.chuckforcongress.com/index.cfm?p=PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=e7da4d44-63af-4eea-b29b-f4eb196ae4b3&ContentType_id=0e5df947-9244-4b5e-ba6c-3f03a09e5693&Group_id=7d2b20a4-48c0-45ce-834e-3b855e4732a7&MonthDisplay=5&YearDisplay=2010

and this TV ad say he's a Christian:

http://www.youtube.com/ChuckforCongress#p/u/3/oDuXqF41IaA

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fine, fine. I didn't really feel the need to watch his TV ads to confirm his religion.

[Ronnie]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis?  

     Clearly a recount would overturn Pelosi's 65% lead.

I meant CA-20.

In other news, RCP declares TX-27 for Farenthold:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2010/house_final_results.html

This guy seems super vulnerable in 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

In other news, RCP declares TX-27 for Farenthold:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2010/house_final_results.html

This guy seems super vulnerable in 2012.

The future is Cao Farenthold.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Latest numbers from CA-20: 34,584 Vidak, 33,936 Costa, a margin of 648 votes.

[minionofmidas]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis?  

     Clearly a recount would overturn Pelosi's 65% lead.

I meant CA-20.

In other news, RCP declares TX-27 for Farenthold:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2010/house_final_results.html

This guy seems super vulnerable in 2012.

...unless they draw him a safe(ish) district that stretches north and west from Corpus.
Although that comes down to abandoning the southern half to a safer Hispanic district than ever.

[Lief 🗽]

AP called it for Giffords.

But CarlHayden assured me that Giffords would lose!

[Torie]

AP called it for Giffords.

But CarlHayden assured me that Giffords would lose!

When I saw Giffords on the tube, and after noticing who won the GOP primary to run against her, I had a pretty strong feeling Giffords would survive. She is a very supple operator and skilled politician.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

In other news, RCP declares TX-27 for Farenthold:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2010/house_final_results.html

This guy seems super vulnerable in 2012.

The future is Cao Farenthold.

PVI = R+2 ?

[Meeker]

What's with the bizarrely low turnout in CA-47? The latest returns are:

Sanchez: 35,792
Tran: 29,996
Iglesias: 4,974

That's only about 70,000 votes. Vote-by-mail counting may be causing somewhat of a lag, yes, but all the neighboring districts report turnout at least double that and there's no reason why one district should experience such a lag and not the others.

[Torie]

What's with the bizarrely low turnout in CA-47? The latest returns are:

Sanchez: 35,792
Tran: 29,996
Iglesias: 4,974

That's only about 70,000 votes. Vote-by-mail counting may be causing somewhat of a lag, yes, but all the neighboring districts report turnout at least double that and there's no reason why one district should experience such a lag and not the others.

That is what happens when you have a district with tons of folks who are not citizens.