NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[JerryBrown2010]

Apparent voting error in Colorado.

[cinyc]

What we learned about New England Polling:

Critical Insights really sucks.  Merriman sucks.  The Rhode Island pollsters aren't that bad.

[Barnes]

I'm glad Lisa Murkowski won. I was very concerned that Miller and her would split the Republican vote.

You do realize this race hasn't been called?

[??????????]

If this hasn't already been noted, both of the Florida non-partisan redistricting amendments are over 60% and likely to pass.  The California non-partisan redistricting amendment is also over 60%.

They don't need 2/3? Sweet, I thought they did for some reason.

I think they need 3/5ths to pass.  Both are over 62% with 98% in.

No, 60%.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Associated Press and MSNBC seem to be reporting on the possibility of a massive vote-counting error in favor of Buck. Apparently up to 40,000 votes could've been mistakenly given to Buck.

Hope it's true.

[Dave from Michigan]

is Buck a tea party guy

[Sam Spade]

What we learned about New England Polling:

Critical Insights really sucks.  Merriman sucks.  The Rhode Island pollsters aren't that bad.

We Ask America got lucky?

[InquilineKea]

95% in El Paso and 94% in Douglas. No high-population Republican-leaning counties left. It's over.

[Lief 🗽]

Surviving Blue Dogs (17):
    * Jason Altmire (PA-4)
    * Joe Baca (CA-43)
    * John Barrow (GA-12)
    * Dan Boren (OK-2)
    * Leonard Boswell (IA-3)
    * Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
    * Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
    * Joe Donnelly (IN-2)
    * Tim Holden (PA-17)
    * Jim Matheson (UT-2)
    * Mike McIntyre (NC-7)
    * Mike Michaud (ME-2)
    * Collin Peterson (MN-7)
    * Mike Ross (AR-4)
    * David Scott (GA-13)
    * Heath Shuler (NC-11) => only surviving member of the leadership
    * Mike Thompson (CA-1)

Too Close to Call (9):
    * Sanford Bishop (GA-2)
    * Ben Chandler (KY-6)
    * Jim Costa (CA-20)
    * Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8)
    * Jane Harman (CA-36)
    * Walt Minnick (ID-1)
    * Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
    * Adam Schiff (CA-29)
    * Kurt Schrader (OR-5)

The caucus had 54 members before tonight.

[Barnes]

Bishop now ahead by 4,800 votes.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_1102/00302.htm

Hilarious. Time to un-call it again...

ABC's pulled it back, so has CNN.

[Insula Dei]

Murkowski win, really.

[Torie]

Buck is in deep trouble absent that 40,000 error which I just read above.  In fact, really almost time to call it.

[cinyc]

One last post of the dashboard now that we have results in all 139 races:




A little conservative, Sam - but not bad.

I have it as Republicans leading in 68, losing in 3 Dem targets, for R+65 (but CT-04 will likely flip, lowering it to R+64).  In the called races, it's R+50.  In those 100% in, it's R+23.

If I've done the math right, the average PVI of the seats Republcians lead  is R+4.7.  The least Republican is D+5 - but that might be CT-04.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Congrats to Senator Bennett on his 99% certain victory. I'm going to bed.

[Torie]

Great work Lief. Thanks for setting me straight. Not that I consider all on your list remotely blue dogs, but they are not in the forefront of the "yes we can" agenda either.

Plus 65 seats eh, Cinyc? What was my predicted number again?    By the way, it is 64, with probably 3 or 4 on either side of that. The Pubbie is not going to win CT-4. Look at what's out.

Sure, I got about 15 seats wrong, but they went both ways. Sometimes statistics works in your favor. And I suspect the generic number I used to generate the number was pretty close too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's one actual precinct left in VA-11. It's one that Fimian won in 2008. Connolly's lead is currently 487 votes. This one is not going to be over for a while.

Also, for a guy that was considered DOA, Perriello made it close. He ended up losing by 51-47. Boucher lost 51-46, and Nye got clobbered 53-42.

[cinyc]

What we learned about New England Polling:

Critical Insights really sucks.  Merriman sucks.  The Rhode Island pollsters aren't that bad.

We Ask America got lucky?

I think I might have read somewhere that We Ask America's polls were done by Voter/Consumer Research, Mitt Romney's internal pollster- though it might have been bottom-of-the-barrel push pollster ccAdvertising.

[Smash255]

Bishop looks to have it locked.  He is up 50.93-49.07 (3,332 votes)  99.35% in (all but 3 precincts are in)

[Ronnie]

I'm actually surprised that West won by 9 points in FL-22.  I thought it would be much closer.

[Guderian]

Bishop will brag about this for the rest of his life. His Dewey defeats Truman moment.

[Badger]

is Buck a tea party guy

sho nuff

[jimrtex]

I worked for Doggett over the summer, and we got a lot of angry letters and calls, but they were always from the non-Travis/Hays part of the district. Never thought it would be this close. Jesus.

Campbell 60.5/37.4 outside of Travis
Doggett 65.7/37.2 in Travis

[Sam Spade]

Thanks cinyc.  For the House, everything turned out quite well with the rankings.  Like the dashboard too.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Buck is done with or without the voting error.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There was a vote counting error in Bishop's district, it looks like he's going to win.