NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[cinyc]

I think the problem with Oberstar was age and how long he had been in office. That's one of the seats they should win back in 2012 if the environment is even slightly better.

Except, as BRTD said, the district might not exist in 2012 - and probably won't exist in its current form, given population shifts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They'll probably have to let McIntyre live if they want Ellmers to stay. There's not a whole lot you can do with NC-11, unless you turn it into a bizarre squidlike district. Kissell, however, is probably going to be screwed.

[Guderian]

Yeah, there's still a small chance for Rossi to turn this around although he will probably lose by 1-1.5 points. I wish WA would start counting again finally.

[Mr.Phips]

They'll probably have to let McIntyre live if they want Ellmers to stay. There's not a whole lot you can do with NC-11, unless you turn it into a bizarre squidlike district. Kissell, however, is probably going to be screwed.

Kissell won by almost 10 points in the worst cycle for Democrats since 1946.  Even if Republicans take Mecklenberg county away from him, he would still win.

[JohnCA246]

what is going on with WA?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Yes, the West did really pull through for us because it's part of our new base. 

The new Democratic firewall. (yea I still include Pennsylvania, sue me)

North Carolina re-elected most of its Dem incumbents.

Unfortunately, the gerrymander presently in effect is going to face some increased scrutiny with the GOP controlling the legislature.

The Governor is a Dem though right? Does Gov. Perdue have a part in redistricting?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Has Alvin Greene actually conceded defeat?  I would love to see his concession speech.

Morden he probably has no phone too call and concede with.......and no microphone or podium for a speech.....unless the outhouse counts.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Murray is overperforming the county benchmarks she needs to get 50.1 so far. She's overperforming a bit in Spokane and Clark while underperforming slightly in King County. Looks like it will be enough to win though.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

NY State Senate looks very close right now. Could end up being a tie at 31-31 from what I've heard.

[Torie]

Damn@Oberstar. I never saw that coming. Normally I'd take solace in that the seat would likely flip back but who knows what redistricting will do. We've probably lost the chance to redistrict out Bachmann too but if we lose a seat Cravaak likely will be it.

Well on the bright side Hanabusa appears to have won by a solid margin.

I was really surprised that Cravaack pulled 40% in St. Louis.  Should I be?

Yeah. That's really flukeish. I wouldn't expect it to continue in future elections but as said who knows what the district will look like. I wonder what happens if they draw Cravaack and Peterson in, Peterson would win but he might lose the primary. Then again he might want to retire now with all of his fellow Blue Dogs wiped out.

Of course I've also heard it's now looking more likely Minnesota might not lose a seat.

If Minnesota does lose a seat, the courts will probably draw the lines, because shockingly to me, and no doubt shockingly to you, BRTD, the GOP won  the Minnesota legislature. It will be just too tough to agree on which Congressperson is going to retire. If the state does not lose a seat, then everybody's district who needs strengthening, will probably get it. Maybe some of the iron range will be moved to MN-7 (but not too much because Peterson would not want too much in a Dem primary), and MN-8 can pick up some of the southern portion of MN-7 perhaps.

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate. Oh yes, Illinois! Quinn is clearly going to win, and that is an important win for the Dems. The Dem gerrymander in Illinois is going to be real ugly, as Cook County votes are used so sink suburban GOP congresspersons. The only thing holding them back will be the need to keep too black and one Hispanic district. Illinois losing a seat will just make all the more sanguinary. Muon2, what do you think?

Can anyone think of a state other than Illinois of any import, that the Dems will control?

[Lief 🗽]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Toomey and Corbett got killed in Philly (though ran strong/barely lost or barely won in the Republican areas of the city) but the margins elsewhere where so incredible that it didn't matter. Republican turnout in Bucks alone was sensational. Our numbers in Chester were great, too. Amazing. What a night.

I think the difference was the African American vote.

It was very Democratic.  It turned out in slightly better numbers than normal.  It was not, however, a much better turnout.

In other words, "President Obama, they don't have your back."  This time.

Wait for 2012. They'll turn out.

Maybe not.  In PA, you have to vote once every two years to stay registered.  You probably lost a number of registered Democrats in Philadelphia.

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McNerney down 23 votes right now. Can you say recount?
BTW, he's not a Blue Dog. Blue Dog Costa seems to have lost (also one of the uncalled races).

[Torie]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Dems were stupid to vote for that ballot initiative. You can do so many creative things with a California gerrymander..

Good news is Republicans in Florida did the same thing. Still, Dems could have gotten more seats out of Cali. than the Republicans could have out of Florida.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Dems are going to gerrymander the sh**t out of Illinois though, so that's good.

The Republicans in Pennsylvania are going to have a tough time deciding which districts to strengthen and which to leave exposed. It's a good problem to have though.

[Sam Spade]

Yes, the West did really pull through for us because it's part of our new base. 

The new Democratic firewall. (yea I still include Pennsylvania, sue me)

North Carolina re-elected most of its Dem incumbents.

Unfortunately, the gerrymander presently in effect is going to face some increased scrutiny with the GOP controlling the legislature.

The Governor is a Dem though right? Does Gov. Perdue have a part in redistricting?

Of course, but NC Dems have always controlled all parts of the redistricting process, which they don't now.  Makes a difference.

As for deals, I could see one for McIntyre - everyone likes him.

[Torie]

McNerney down 23 votes right now. Can you say recount?
BTW, he's not a Blue Dog. Blue Dog Costa seems to have lost (also one of the uncalled races).

Harmer is probably going to lose to the Dem, unless the 2 or 3 precincts out in Santa Clara County are disproportionately Republican, which is possible (somewhere in gated communities in Moraga or something), but unlikely.

Santa Clara
Updated 7 minutes ago
McNerney    4,900 51%
Harmer     4,254 45%
86% of precincts reporting

[Oakvale]

Hahaha, Fiorna hasn't conceded yet. That's hilarious. And tragic.

[bgwah]

Washington is all-mail. There are a ton of ballots that haven't even gotten to the county election offices yet.

Most counties are going to do an update once a day or so.

It's estimated that King County is only about half in, though, so that is probably good for Murray. King's updates will be at 4:30 PM every day.

I'm much more interested in WA-2. Though a 0.8% deficit will be hard for Larsen to overcome, IMO... Then again, the margin changed by about that (maybe more) during the primary, so it could happen. But Koster could also expand his lead by another 0.8%, so who knows.

[Sam Spade]

So how many times will the Texas GOP's gerrymander go to court?

[Brittain33]

So how many times will the Texas GOP's gerrymander go to court?

Depends if the AG post-2013 is Eric Holder or Joe Miller.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Governor has no veto power over redistricting in North Carolina.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

McNerney's actually up by 121 votes according to the SOS:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/contest_summary.pdf

[Vepres]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.