PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has been posted somewhere, but these are the states that will have an Exit Poll:



MN, ME, MA, RI and GA will get none. That suxx.

I know why they are not doing AK though ...

http://www.edisonresearch.com/2010_national_election_coverage.php

[Barnes]

That really irks me that GA isn't getting one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why in the hell wouldn't you poll Massachusetts? It's got a competitive statewide race!

[Torie]

Interesting, the couple next door to me on the north, and two doors down to the south are all registered Dems, and both couples shocked me when  they told me this morning that they were voting a straight GOP ticket this time. Politics came up because I decided to lobby them on the Pot Prop and some of the other propositions). I had to persuade them to vote Dem for the local assembly race. (The Indian couple just to the south are Republican, whose politics is about the same as States, so I know how they voted.  )

I don't think the Dems are going to do very well in my precinct this year - at all.

[Joe Republic]

I'm still sad I'm going to be missing most of election night thanks to my insane canvassing hours.

     Think that's bad? I'm missing most of election night due to a freaking midterm.

You should have told your teacher that some midterms are simply more important than theirs. 

[cinyc]

Here's what I will be posting on the national House thread:



Most of it should be pretty self-explanatory, but here's what things mean.

The categories above the tables are Sam Spade's categories for GOP Targets (there's a similar chart for his DEM targets).  Within each category, you'll see an alphabetical list of districts.  The color of the cell is based on the Atlas Margin color code - lighter red = Dem leading by little, darkest red = Dem leading by most, lighter blue = Rep leading by little, etc.  Colors change in 5 point increments.

To the right of the CD name, there are two pieces of info - 1) the margin (D+10) in FL-22, for example and 2) the percent reporting, with a data bar.  If Independents are collectively winning (doubtful - but they were in the source's test data), you'll see IND instead of the margin.  If there's no data, you'll see NONE, like for NM-01 in the chart.

Next to the category headings are three numbers - the number of seats in which the Rs lead (or Ds lead, for the Dem targets), the number of seats that they are projected to win (R likely) and the number of seats that Rs lead where all results are in (R Def gain).

If a race is called, you'll see a Yellow star behind the CD name (like MO-04, in the test data, for example).

There will likely be images per full chart.

Any questions or thoughts?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Here's what I will be posting on the national House thread:



Most of it should be pretty self-explanatory, but here's what things mean.

The categories above the tables are Sam Spade's categories for GOP Targets (there's a similar chart for his DEM targets).  Within each category, you'll see an alphabetical list of districts.  The color of the cell is based on the Atlas Margin color code - lighter red = Dem leading by little, darkest red = Dem leading by most, lighter blue = Rep leading by little, etc.  Colors change in 5 point increments.

To the right of the CD name, there are two pieces of info - 1) the margin (D+10) in FL-22, for example and 2) the percent reporting, with a data bar.  If Independents are collectively winning (doubtful - but they were in the source's test data), you'll see IND instead of the margin.  If there's no data, you'll see NONE, like for NM-01 in the chart.

Next to the category headings are three numbers - the number of seats in which the Rs lead (or Ds lead, for the Dem targets), the number of seats that they are projected to win (R likely) and the number of seats that Rs lead where all results are in (R Def gain).

If a race is called, you'll see a Yellow star behind the CD name (like MO-04, in the test data, for example).

There will likely be images per full chart.

Any questions or thoughts?

that chart is anything but intuitive

[Keystone Phil]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

[Mr. Morden]

Some talking head on MSNBC just said that the Delaware Dems are alleging voter intimidation from the O'Donnell people.  I didn't catch the details though.

[Lief 🗽]

Here's an anecdotal turnout hearsay article about high turnout in urban areas, to cheer up Democrats: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/02/high-voter-turnout-urban-areas_n_777640.html

[Eraserhead]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

[Mr. Morden]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Yeah, here are details:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/40750037/Early-Exit-Polling-Results-Muhlenberg-College

This appears to be separate from the network's exit polls, so there's no embargo until polls close.

Corbett leads 55-43%, according to that exit poll.

[J. J.]

Turnout North Philadelphia, J. J. 's Division.

At 1:45 PM, there were 94 voters voting.  This represents about 18% of the total registered voters.  Project turnout is 38-40 of the total registered voters.

In 2005, the number was 171 and in 2008 it was 214 (that was about 38%).  

In 2006, I only noted the percentage, about 15%.  I think that it was around 65-75 voters as there were fewer registered.

In short, there is a slight increase in voters from the last gubernatorial election, but still well below the presidential numbers.

Didn't the Democrats do pretty well at that last gubernatorial election?

Yep, but not had they had to rely on Philadelphia.  It was a very slow year.

Now, what's the turnout in the rest of the state.

[Brittain33]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

But don't old people come out mid-day?

Ugh. Not holding out too much hope for this race.

[Joe Biden 2020]

2 hours until the first polls close.

[Eraserhead]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

But don't old people come out mid-day?

Ugh. Not holding out too much hope for this race.

I'd be pretty surprised if Sestak won. I want him to at least keep it close though. This could be a decent sign...

[J. J.]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

But don't old people come out mid-day?

Ugh. Not holding out too much hope for this race.

It's generally people with jobs and a lot of union people.

[Keystone Phil]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

No, Republicans usually do.

And realize that this poll was only for 7-10 AM. These are usually the best hours for the Dems.

[Rowan]

GOP WINS GUAM!!!

[J. J.]

GOP WINS GUAM!!!

And that changes the balance of power by 0.0%. 

[Torie]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

I bet dollars to donuts that that poll is only PA-15. Otherwise, why would the poll have just that one race covered (Dent up by 11% or something), and why is the sample only 2% black? Campaign spot has a link to the actual poll sheet. 

[Brittain33]

That exit poll is also 2% African American. Kind of ridiculous to spend much time with it.

[tpfkaw]

GOP WINS GUAM!!!

And that changes the balance of power by 0.0%. 

Guam's straw poll has predicted every presidential election's result since 1976 (when they went for Ford).  Not sure what their record on congressional elections is, though.

[J. J.]

That exit poll is also 2% African American. Kind of ridiculous to spend much time with it.

We are not getting a huge African-American turnout, though I'd expect more than 2% (unless there is a massive white turnout).

[Eraserhead]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

No, Republicans usually do.

And realize that this poll was only for 7-10 AM. These are usually the best hours for the Dems.

We must be in touch with very different kinds of Democrats then!