Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate?

[The Vorlon]

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...

If we believe Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen and CNN and the Generic ballot really is is +10 or better for the GOP, Washington has got be be very close, and West Virginia can be too far off.

I don't think so, but I would not be shocked.

[The Vorlon]

Only with a 23 level archmage casting a Wish spell:

DE

But isn't O'Donnell a witch or something?

[The Vorlon]

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...

If we believe Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen and CNN and the Generic ballot really is is +10 or better for the GOP, Washington has got be be very close, and West Virginia can be too far off.

I don't think so, but I would not be shocked.

I still think extrapolating generic ballots to say "well this is what it means" in this scenario is a potential mistake.

The Generic Ballot more or less works for the House, but the Senate is a different kettle of fish.

In Deleware Castle is a semi-lock for the GOP if he is the candidate, O'Donnell as candidate and the state is a semi-lock for the Dems.

The candidate matters a lot more at the State Senate level.

Same Generic Ballot, different candidates => different result.

[The Vorlon]

No, WA, WV and some random unexpected DEM hold gives Republicans 48.

A pretty decent guess. 

I don't think there will be a "random hold" and Washington is pretty close to 50/50, so I guess we are about 0.9 seats apart in our view of things.