2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

To all those who rate Olympia Snowe as super-safe in 2010, I would like to point out that when PPP polled the state a couple of months, they found that her approvals have dropped dramatically.

Democrats are pissed because of her lockstep voting with the rest of  her party, while Republicans are furious with her votes for the stimulus, TARP and the fact that she voted yes for HCR at the Finance Committee.

Yeah, being a moderate hero around those times doesn't pay so much...

[ajc0918]

Bill Nelson in FL seems like a strong target for a GOP pickup.
Florida Democrats have really become irrelevant after 2010, and Nelson is their only high profile elected official left. (Republicans hold the Governorship including all statewide offices, veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, and 19 of 25 house seats).

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Nelson retired as he will by 70 on election day.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bill Nelson in FL seems like a strong target for a GOP pickup.
Florida Democrats have really become irrelevant after 2010, and Nelson is their only high profile elected official left. (Republicans hold the Governorship including all statewide offices, veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, and 19 of 25 house seats).

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Nelson retired as he will by 70 on election day.

With the redistricting initiatives that passed they will improve their position inevitably.
That said, is there any Republican that has expressed interest in running against Nelson?

[You kip if you want to...]

CA - Dem
DE - Dem
FL - Toss-up/Lean GOP
HI - Dem
MD - Dem
MI - Toss-up
MN - Dem
MO - Toss-up
MT - Toss-up/Lean GOP
NE - GOP
NJ - Toss-up
NM - Dem
NY - Dem
ND - GOP
OH - Toss-up
PA - Dem
RI - Dem
VA - Toss-up
WA - Dem
WV - Dem
WI - Dem
CT - Dem
VT - Ind
AZ - GOP
IN - GOP (although, a Tea Party challenge could make it a toss-up)
ME - Dem
MA - Dem
NV - Dem
TN - GOP
TX - GOP
UT - GOP
WY - GOP

As of today, a very crude prediction gives the GOP a best case scenario of a net of +6 making the Senate 53-47 to them. This, of course, assumes that Obama gets re-elected by a close margin.

[Brittain33]

Bill Nelson in FL seems like a strong target for a GOP pickup.
Florida Democrats have really become irrelevant after 2010, and Nelson is their only high profile elected official left. (Republicans hold the Governorship including all statewide offices, veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, and 19 of 25 house seats).

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Nelson retired as he will by 70 on election day.

This was pretty much the case when he was elected in 2000... Democrats had been wiped out in the state.

One thing Nelson has going for him is that he's not going to get the massive backlash from seniors that other Democrats got. He has been careful on that topic, and I don't think the generic "health care vote = wants to kill seniors" will work as well in 2012.

[J. J.]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

[J. J.]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

[Keystone Phil]

As of now, the ones I'd worry about as a Republican would be Maine (Snowe retirement or primary loss), Massachusetts and Nevada. Arizona and Indiana could be problems with retirements.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts.  

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988.  

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife.  

He wasn't replaced with his wife till after the election, but yeah it definately is a special case

There is also SD 1996, Larry Pressler gets defeated by Tim Johnson despite Dole carrying the state. Again, no scandal that I can remember. Pressler just suffered from general voter fatigue I believe.

[Mr.Phips]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts.  

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988.  

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife.  

He wasn't replaced with his wife till after the election, but yeah it definately is a special case

There is also SD 1996, Larry Pressler gets defeated by Tim Johnson despite Dole carrying the state. Again, no scandal that I can remember. Pressler just suffered from general voter fatigue I believe.

Pressler actually ran ahead of Dole.  Dole got 46%, while Pressler got 49%.

[J. J.]

Phips, we've seen these situations where the presidential candidate wins re-election in a 49 state landslide, and the party still loses a Senate seat. 

The problem is the number of seats defended.  The Democrats and allies have 23; the GOP has 10.  They drop, but the question is, by how much?

[Landslide Lyndon]

As of now, the ones I'd worry about as a Republican would be Maine (Snowe retirement or primary loss), Massachusetts and Nevada. Arizona and Indiana could be problems with retirements.

Kyl isn't going anywhere. He waits his turn to become Republican leader.
Lugar has announced that he is running for reelection.

And after electing pinheads like Brewer and Quale Jr., I really doubt that Arizonans will vote for a Democrat.