Maps we need to see!

[Brittain33]

Ok, we know who the incumbents are in and who's got the pens. Here's what we need to see, and I will hope to do some myself this weekend if I can recall how to use imagebucket whatever.

Pennsylvania: Republican gerrymander that eliminates PA-12 and protects eastern incumbents as best as possible.

Ohio: Republican gerrymander that tries to collapse the 5 Dems in the northeast to 4 safe seats. Is that even possible? (If you posted this map already, bump it up!)

Illinois: Democratic gerrymander that unlocks Cook County inner suburbs and maybe resurrects a downstate Democrat.

Massachusetts: Barney Frank retires.

New York: incumbent protection map.

North Carolina: have fun with this one, Pubbies!

Indiana: draw Donnelly a district he can't win.

Michigan: Possible to protect all incumbents and put Peters and Sander Levin in the same district while losing a seat?

Tennessee: Find where incumbents live and draw a rational map.

Connecticut: Make CT-5 and CT-4 safer for Dems.

Texas: Perrymander, the next generation. Only for the strongest of the strong.

[muon2]

Ok, we know who the incumbents are in and who's got the pens. Here's what we need to see, and I will hope to do some myself this weekend if I can recall how to use imagebucket whatever.

Pennsylvania: Republican gerrymander that eliminates PA-12 and protects eastern incumbents as best as possible.

Ohio: Republican gerrymander that tries to collapse the 5 Dems in the northeast to 4 safe seats. Is that even possible? (If you posted this map already, bump it up!)

Illinois: Democratic gerrymander that unlocks Cook County inner suburbs and maybe resurrects a downstate Democrat.

Massachusetts: Barney Frank retires.

New York: incumbent protection map.

North Carolina: have fun with this one, Pubbies!

Indiana: draw Donnelly a district he can't win.

Michigan: Possible to protect all incumbents and put Peters and Sander Levin in the same district while losing a seat?

Tennessee: Find where incumbents live and draw a rational map.

Connecticut: Make CT-5 and CT-4 safer for Dems.

Texas: Perrymander, the next generation. Only for the strongest of the strong.

Check out the OH and PA threads that were already started assuming GOP control. There are links from the sticky thread at the head of the board. I'll add links as interest (and map ideas) emerge for the other states. For states like TX and NY it may be hard to advance far until apportionment is known in Dec, since both states are on the bubble.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder what a non-partisan Florida map would look like?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map of upstate New York made assuming the legislature is split, Buerkle ends up beating Maffei in NY-25, and one district gets eliminated. I'm not sure where most of the new Reps live, so I'm guessing with a few of these. There's no real need to do NYC/Long Island, I doubt they'll change a whole lot.



Going west to east:

Blue - The greater Buffalo area (and Niagara Falls), drawn for Brian Higgins. 64-35 Obama.
Green - Drawn for Chris Lee, 53-45 McCain.
Red - Drawn for newly-elected Tom Reed. 54-44 McCain.
Purple - Ended the silly Slaughtermander; Louise Slaughter can get elected here fine. 60-39 Obama.
Grey - Parts of NY-25 and NY-24 combined. Buerkle and Hanna fight it out, and it's a swingy district at 49-49 McCain (went for McCain by about 2,000 votes).
Yellow - Bill Owens' district adds Syracuse. 60-39 Obama.
Dark Teal - Maurice Hinchey gets another gerrymandered district. 61-37 Obama.
Light Teal - For the guy that defeated Murphy... Gibson, I think? 51-47 McCain.
Purple - Tonko's district, 60-38 Obama.
Magenta - Nan Hayworth goes here, 53-46 McCain.
Green - Nita Lowey goes here, 62-37 Obama.
Light Purple - Eliot Engel's district, 65-35 Obama.

[Verily]

Here's a fun incumbent protection gerrymander of NM.

NM-01 is 56% Hispanic and 63% Obama.
NM-02 is 59% McCain.
NM-03 is 41% Hispanic, 36% White, 19% Native and 67% Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, that sixth district is a piece of art!

[Torie]

Regarding the NY map above, it looks pretty good, but the GOP will no doubt insist on beefing up the grey district, by moving over some GOP votes from the red district.

Another alternative, if the Dem majority leader in the Assembly can get over his Hinchey man crush, is for the Dems to just let the courts draw the districts. They might end better off that way.

[Verily]

Regarding the NY map above, it looks pretty good, but the GOP will no doubt insist on beefing up the grey district, by moving over some GOP votes from the red district.

Problem is that all of the areas around the border of the red and grey districts are Democratic-leaning (50-55% Obama). You'd have to do a pretty intense gerrymander.

[Torie]

Regarding the NY map above, it looks pretty good, but the GOP will no doubt insist on beefing up the grey district, by moving over some GOP votes from the red district.

Problem is that all of the areas around the border of the red and grey districts are Democratic-leaning (50-55% Obama). You'd have to do a pretty intense gerrymander.

No, I was just saying, make the red district a bit less GOP, and the grey district a bit more. That should not be hard.

[dpmapper]

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Should definitely be possible.  Kaptur and Kucinich take Sutton's northern end in Lorain,  Fudge drops down and takes the black areas of Akron, and Tim Ryan takes other parts of Akron.  Renacci takes her purplish areas in between.  The harder question is, how do you protect all the new GOP congressmen elsewhere???  You have one fewer district with which to split Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati, and the Ohio River towns.  

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Too easy; just shift Visclosky farther east in exchange for the rural parts to his south, and a few other tweaks.  The GOP can probably protect their gains in the 8th and 9th, too, by moving Terre Haute and Bloomington elsewhere.  

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I would think the GOP would try for more than this - can they eliminate Cooper?  It might get ugly but I would think it doable; he won by less than any of the 4 Republicans in the neighborhood.  

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Haven't looked at incumbent residences yet, but 27-9 should be doable.  Dems are safe in El Paso (1), San Antonio (1), Austin (1), Houston (3), Dallas (1), and McAllen/Rio Grande Valley (2), plus two Hispanic-majority seats that the GOP has won and can probably keep with the right lines.  

[Verily]

Haven't looked at incumbent residences yet, but 27-9 should be doable.  Dems are safe in El Paso (1), San Antonio (1), Austin (1), Houston (3), Dallas (1), and McAllen/Rio Grande Valley (2), plus two Hispanic-majority seats that the GOP has won and can probably keep with the right lines.  

DOJ is likely to force a Hispanic district in DFW. Also, the GOP doesn't get to "keep" the two Hispanic majority seats it won. They're VRA-protected, so the GOP only gets to keep them if they can consistently win a majority of the Hispanic vote in those seats (not likely). The GOP would want to make another South Texas seat to make Farenthold safe, anyway.

25/24-11 is probably the best possible result for the Republicans.

[Verily]

Here's Florida. No partisan data, but the Tallahassee-Jacksonville-Gainesville district is majority black, as are two districts in South Florida. There are three Cuban districts in South Florida as well. The Osceola and southern/eastern Orange County district is less than majority white, and the Orange/Seminole district is only 54% white.

There should be 10 Democratic seats (Corrine Brown's new seat, the St. Petersburg seat, the Tampa seat, the Orange/Seminole seat, the Orange/Osceola seat, and five seats in South Florida) and 13 Republican seats (the two Panhandle seats, the two Jacksonville suburbs seats, the Hernando/Pasco/Citrus seat, the two Tampa suburbs seats, the Lake/Orange seat, the Brevard seat, the Fort Myers seat, and the three Cuban seats) as well as three competitive seats (the Daytona Beach seat, the Sarasota seat and the St. Lucie/Martin/northern Palm Beach seat).

[nclib]

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I would think the GOP would try for more than this - can they eliminate Cooper?  It might get ugly but I would think it doable; he won by less than any of the 4 Republicans in the neighborhood.  

Cooper used to represent TN-4, so he could potentially hold down GOP margins there while comfortably winning his chunk of Nashville.

[Torie]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

[Verily]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Pretty sure they're forced to keep creating the black and Cuban districts, or at least the courts will interpret it that way. But, if not, I could redo the map.

[Torie]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Pretty sure they're forced to keep creating the black and Cuban districts, or at least the courts will interpret it that way. But, if not, I could redo the map.

No, not if they don't tie together communities of interest, and Corrine Brown's district is  not a majority-minority district in any event, and thus is not in any way protected by the voting rights act, which is why she is so upset, and is suing. Her district is l'histoire, and she is l'histoire.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Brown isn't someone I'll miss. I'll gladly trade her for 3 or 4 other Democrats. Especially if it means Alan Grayson can return!

[Verily]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Pretty sure they're forced to keep creating the black and Cuban districts, or at least the courts will interpret it that way. But, if not, I could redo the map.

No, not if they don't tie together communities of interest, and Corrine Brown's district is  not a majority-minority district in any event, and thus is not in any way protected by the voting rights act, which is why she is so upset, and is suing. Her district is l'histoire, and she is l'histoire.

Not sure she's doomed. Jacksonville is way bigger than a district. You could create a 35% or so black seat in Jacksonville that would reelect a Democrat, although maybe not Brown.

[Torie]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Pretty sure they're forced to keep creating the black and Cuban districts, or at least the courts will interpret it that way. But, if not, I could redo the map.

No, not if they don't tie together communities of interest, and Corrine Brown's district is  not a majority-minority district in any event, and thus is not in any way protected by the voting rights act, which is why she is so upset, and is suing. Her district is l'histoire, and she is l'histoire.

Not sure she's doomed. Jacksonville is way bigger than a district. You could create a 35% or so black seat in Jacksonville that would reelect a Democrat, although maybe not Brown.

The GOP won't do that.

[Verily]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Pretty sure they're forced to keep creating the black and Cuban districts, or at least the courts will interpret it that way. But, if not, I could redo the map.

No, not if they don't tie together communities of interest, and Corrine Brown's district is  not a majority-minority district in any event, and thus is not in any way protected by the voting rights act, which is why she is so upset, and is suing. Her district is l'histoire, and she is l'histoire.

Not sure she's doomed. Jacksonville is way bigger than a district. You could create a 35% or so black seat in Jacksonville that would reelect a Democrat, although maybe not Brown.

The GOP won't do that.

Ah, but central Jacksonville is a community of interest that you would be splitting up, and one of the rules says no partisan considerations.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Much as I wish that every state in the union had an anti-gerrymandering law, this Florida amendment is a total mess. It doesn't actually establish an independent commission; the map is still drawn by the legislature, though they have to abide by the new guidelines. But the new guidelines are incredibly vague, and in particular don't say anything about how to adjudicate cases where two of the principles conflict, which they clearly do in the case of minority representation and compactness. So what I expect is:

1. The legislature draws a map that looks nice but is in fact very GOP-friendly, like the current Michigan map.
2. A lot of lawsuits ensue.
3.

The amendment's language on minorities is sufficiently similar to the VRA, though, that I kind of doubt that the courts will establish a whole new layer of requirements instead of just saying you can't violate the VRA for the sake of the other requirements.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Playing around with the app I see that if the majority black seat in north Florida is eliminated A DISTRICT CAN BE DRAWN THAT ALAN GRAYSON COULD WIN! YES! YES! YES! YES!

Toss Brown. Throw her to the dogs. Forget her, she is useless. Goodbye to that useless wench. Sacrificing corrupt trash like her for people like Alan Grayson is FAR worth it.

[jimrtex]

I don't think under the new Florida redistricting law, erose black districts not tying together communities of interest, can be drawn unless otherwise mandated by the voting rights act, and they are not. So that map above is not legal, I don't think.

Corrine Brown and Lincoln Diaz-Balart have filed suit against the new constitutional amendment, claiming that it violates the VRA.  I think Brown is claiming that under the VRA, an incumbent is a presumptive candidate of choice of the minority.

[Verily]

It's Mario who is suing, not Lincoln, FWIW.

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/59532388/Corrine-Brown-Mario-Diaz-Balart-Lawsuit

[Verily]

Playing around with the app I see that if the majority black seat in north Florida is eliminated A DISTRICT CAN BE DRAWN THAT ALAN GRAYSON COULD WIN! YES! YES! YES! YES!

Toss Brown. Throw her to the dogs. Forget her, she is useless. Goodbye to that useless wench. Sacrificing corrupt trash like her for people like Alan Grayson is FAR worth it.

As my earlier map shows, you could create a majority black district without going south to Orlando regardless.