Santorum's Dem Challenger

[Keystone Phil]

PoliticsPA.com, the most respected name in Pennsylvania politics, has released their short list for possible 2006 Democratic challengers to Rick Santorum.

Good news for Republicans: It's official. Pennsylvania's most popular Democrat, Bob Casey, Jr., will NOT be running for U.S. Senate in '06. Check out the rest of the list for other interesting candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

And here's the link...

http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/shortlist06sen.htm

[Keystone Phil]

hehe not much of a choice.

There's actually a great choice out there. Her name: Barb Hafer.The Dems would be wise to nominate her.... that is if they want Santorum to reach 55% 

[Keystone Phil]

Chris "the screamer" matthews ugh.

He won't run and here's why: His brother is a big Montgomery county Republican official (a County Commissioner actually). That would create a divide that I'm sure Chris wants to avoid.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's just hope it's not Teresa

The PA Dems will avoid that disaster (yet your disaster would be the best thing that happened for the PA GOP even better than Hafer...). Teresa won't run anyway.

In my opinion, the big names to watch (for a possible run) are:

Hafer, Hoeffel, Street (funny as it may be, PoliticsPA is right - Street has nothing to lose) and Schwartz (I don't care how many times she says she won't run for Senate. She obviously wants the job and wants to be the one who faces Santorum.) Crystle will run but he's an even bigger joke than the others.

Casey is out. Heinz - no chance. Holden - Nope. (He has a safe seat in a Republican district. He'll be there for awhile.) Kukovich - yeah right. TJ Rooney - No. Rodin - maybe. Singel - interesting candidate but unlikely to run. Williams - Won't run statewide just yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe casey will get his arm twisted a little.

He wants to be Governor and being the most popular Dem in the state, what he says will be respected. He doesn't want to run, PA Dems are going to respect it. Plus, Rendell's big candidate will be Hafer and having the incumbent Dem Governor on your side during a Dem Senate primary helps a lot.

[Keystone Phil]

If Holden ran he would win! Too bad...but I still think our chances are better at taking down Santorum then Spector.

You're chances of taking down Santorum are better than your chances against Specter but that doesn't necessarily mean something. Santorum is a popular guy in PA and in my opinion, the only candidate that could beat him is Casey. Holden....maybe but chances of him getting the nomination - zero.

[Keystone Phil]

If Holden ran he would win! Too bad...but I still think our chances are better at taking down Santorum then Spector.

You're chances of taking down Santorum are better than your chances against Specter but that doesn't necessarily mean something. Santorum is a popular guy in PA and in my opinion, the only candidate that could beat him is Casey. Holden....maybe but chances of him getting the nomination - zero.

If Holden ran I think he would have pretty good chances of winning the nomination. Let's face it -- he would have the support of Central PA. If a Democrat can run statewide with the support of Central PA you can kiss whatever Republican he's running against goodbye.

How many Democrats are in central PA? They don't make up most of the voters in a Dem primary. Now in the General election, you would have a point. Holden would present a good challenge but like I said, he can't win the nomination. Even Casey would have a hard time winning the nomination going up against a Pro Choice candidate (mainly because of the Pro Choice groups pouring money in for their candidate). But someone like Casey is more likely to win the nomination (as opposed to Holden) and also more likely to win a General election.

[Keystone Phil]

If Holden ran he would win! Too bad...but I still think our chances are better at taking down Santorum then Spector.

You're chances of taking down Santorum are better than your chances against Specter but that doesn't necessarily mean something. Santorum is a popular guy in PA and in my opinion, the only candidate that could beat him is Casey. Holden....maybe but chances of him getting the nomination - zero.

If Holden ran I think he would have pretty good chances of winning the nomination. Let's face it -- he would have the support of Central PA. If a Democrat can run statewide with the support of Central PA you can kiss whatever Republican he's running against goodbye.

How many Democrats are in central PA? They don't make up most of the voters in a Dem primary. Now in the General election, you would have a point. Holden would present a good challenge but like I said, he can't win the nomination. Even Casey would have a hard time winning the nomination going up against a Pro Choice candidate (mainly because of the Pro Choice groups pouring money in for their candidate). But someone like Casey is more likely to win the nomination (as opposed to Holden) and also more likely to win a General election.

BTW, I think Casey is not just the most popular Democrat in PA, he is the most popular politician overall..followed by Spector and Rendell.

Holden would definetely face an uphill battle in the primaries, but if he could tough it out he would probably win against Santorum. And after the last Presidential election a LOT of money is going to be thrown at MODERATE Democrats like Holden. There is already quite a bit of money behind Holden.

If approval ratings for the following officials came out tomorrow, I'd say that it would go as follows (first official receiving the highest approval rating, last official receiving the lowest approval rating)

Casey
Santorum
Specter/Rendell 

I'm telling you...Rendell's popularity is slipping, especially after the whole absentee voter thing here. I bet the next approval rating results will show that.

As for Holden, he might have some money but it's nothing compared to what candidates like Hafer will receive from groups like EMILY's list.

[Keystone Phil]

The PA Republican Party is in danger of becoming impotent, but I think that Santorum will defeat almost any challenger that the Dems bring up, unless 2006 is a really bad year for the GOP.

P.S. For those of you Democrats who think that Santorum is dead meat.  You would do well to remember that he currently has the highest approval rating, in his state, of any U.S. Senator.

His approval rating is no higher than Rendell's.  2006 may be a washout for the GOP and Santorum and Coleman (MN) will be prime targets for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.  Neither party should get cocky.  I hate Santorum with a passion, but I know how big PA is and how different it is.  However, the Southeast portion generally agrees with me and will turn out almost the same numebrs they did for Kerry in 2006.  If that's the case, Santorum may have trouble.  Remember, Bush is far less brash.       

According to the last ratings, you're right. Santorum and Rendell are tied when it comes to approval ratings. However, you left out that 1) Rendell has higher disapproval ratings and 2) Rendell's approval ratings will likely go down due to the recent absentee ballot situation.

The Dems will likely target this seat but with a nominee like Hafer, their chances of picking up this seat are very, very slim. SE PA can have a strong turnout but the west will turn out in good numbers, too. Remember that it took strong turnout in SE PA and the west for Kerry to barely win the state. In this case, Santorum will carry his base out west and we'll be saying "Six More Years."

[Keystone Phil]

Add a new name to the list of possible Democratic primary candidates:

Kathleen McGinty - Secretary of the Department of Environmental Protection

From PoliticsPA.com:

It's unofficial: DEP Secretary to run for Senate in 2006.  Multiple sources tell PoliticsPA that DEP Secretary Kathleen McGinty is considering a run for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2006.  McGinty has strong ties to the Clinton administration, and served as a policy advisor to the Democratic National Committee and Al Gore.

McGinty's resume can be found at http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/mcginty/resume.htm

[Keystone Phil]

If Holden were to win the Democratic nomination against Santorum he would have my vote. I would hate to lose him as my Representative, however.

Losing Holden in the geographic position he is would be tough.  I think it would be best for him to stay in PA-17.  He woudl not win Seante because his pro-life views come in conflict with Southeastern PA liberal Democrats.

If Holden ever hinted at running, state Dems would plead with him to decide against it. Once he leaves that seat, it's going GOP. And like IrishDem said, his chances at winning the nomination aren't good because of his pro life views.

[Keystone Phil]

Add a new name to the list of possible Democratic primary candidates:

Kathleen McGinty - Secretary of the Department of Environmental Protection

From PoliticsPA.com:

It's unofficial: DEP Secretary to run for Senate in 2006.  Multiple sources tell PoliticsPA that DEP Secretary Kathleen McGinty is considering a run for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2006.  McGinty has strong ties to the Clinton administration, and served as a policy advisor to the Democratic National Committee and Al Gore.

McGinty's resume can be found at http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/mcginty/resume.htm

HA!  An Environmental Protection Secretary.  She would be crushed in the "T" and Pittsburgh.

And how about the rumors about Street in '06? I mean...are the Dems trying to lose? Do they want to see Santorum re-elected? Most of their rumored candidates are jokes.

[Keystone Phil]

How would an environmental secretary hurt her in Central PA and Pittsburgh...the environment is one of the biggest issues in the state. It would actually help her, of course among Democrats and probably among Republicans too.

Since when was the environment one of the biggest issues here?

[Keystone Phil]

And how about the rumors about Street in '06? I mean...are the Dems trying to lose? Do they want to see Santorum re-elected? Most of their rumored candidates are jokes.

I wouldn't sell Street short; he has had a long record as a social conservative and fiscal conservative as well.

The problem in '06 is georgraphy.

Street??? Are you kidding??  Let me bring my pen to the polls.

Yeah...come on J.J. Being from Philadelphia you should know how big of a joke Street is. Santorum would come close to 60% if Street was his opponent.

And to address Dan's point about the environment, I'd like to ask him this: If the environment has been such a huge issue in PA, why haven't I heard this discussed in the Senate debates this year? Why didn't the PA Dems sponsor an ad for Kerry based on his stances on the environment? I don't think you know what you're talking about. I honestly couldn't tell you when I last heard the environment talked about in a state race.

[Keystone Phil]

If Casey is indeed not running,
I'm really hope Rodin will run.  How unrealistic is this?

Casey isn't running. Rodin is a possibility but only another candidate Santorum will be able to easily defeat.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually Phil, the environment has been brought up...take a look at this snippet from the Patriot-News today:

"CLEAN ENERGY

The proposal: Requires utilities to move toward generating at least 18 percent of electricity from alternative energy sources. Some clean energy advocates opposed the addition of waste-coal re-use technologies included in the bill.

Status: Passed the House and the Senate. Rendell was expected to sign it into law."

And as you can see it has passed easily.

Anyway, a lot of the sportsmen in Central PA are actually very pro-environment....my old bio teacher in high school was a staunch Republican but a member of the Sierra Club and very liberal on environmental issues. The Sierra Club has some very active chapters across much of Central PA, which is of course very Republican. Pennsylvania also has some of the highest membership in the country for the Sierra Club and other environmental groups.

BTW, check this out all you PA people -- great roundup of what has been going on in the Statehouse lately: http://www.pennlive.com/news/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1101032521156290.xml

Please tell me the last time you heard the environment brought up as a big topic in a Gubernatorial or Senate race in this state. You keep telling me it's a top issue here.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually Phil, the environment has been brought up...take a look at this snippet from the Patriot-News today:

"CLEAN ENERGY

The proposal: Requires utilities to move toward generating at least 18 percent of electricity from alternative energy sources. Some clean energy advocates opposed the addition of waste-coal re-use technologies included in the bill.

Status: Passed the House and the Senate. Rendell was expected to sign it into law."

And as you can see it has passed easily.

Anyway, a lot of the sportsmen in Central PA are actually very pro-environment....my old bio teacher in high school was a staunch Republican but a member of the Sierra Club and very liberal on environmental issues. The Sierra Club has some very active chapters across much of Central PA, which is of course very Republican. Pennsylvania also has some of the highest membership in the country for the Sierra Club and other environmental groups.

BTW, check this out all you PA people -- great roundup of what has been going on in the Statehouse lately: http://www.pennlive.com/news/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1101032521156290.xml

Please tell me the last time you heard the environment brought up as a big topic in a Gubernatorial or Senate race in this state. You keep telling me it's a top issue here.

Well, in the last gubernatorial race both candidates were pro-environment. I'm not going to argue this anymore...the environment has always been a big issue in PA. Just ask Terry Madonna.

Pro Environment. I love that title. Anyway, I asked when the last time you heard the environment discussed as a big issue in Gubernatorial/Senate race. I know you're avoiding the point. As for Terry Modonna, I watched a few of his lectures on PCN after this election. Times I heard him bring up the enviroment issue: 0.

Now I understand that in certain areas of the state, the enviroment is a big issue. However, I honestly don't believe it's made out to be as big of an issue as you'd like me to believe.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually Phil, the environment has been brought up...take a look at this snippet from the Patriot-News today:

"CLEAN ENERGY

The proposal: Requires utilities to move toward generating at least 18 percent of electricity from alternative energy sources. Some clean energy advocates opposed the addition of waste-coal re-use technologies included in the bill.

Status: Passed the House and the Senate. Rendell was expected to sign it into law."

And as you can see it has passed easily.

Anyway, a lot of the sportsmen in Central PA are actually very pro-environment....my old bio teacher in high school was a staunch Republican but a member of the Sierra Club and very liberal on environmental issues. The Sierra Club has some very active chapters across much of Central PA, which is of course very Republican. Pennsylvania also has some of the highest membership in the country for the Sierra Club and other environmental groups.

BTW, check this out all you PA people -- great roundup of what has been going on in the Statehouse lately: http://www.pennlive.com/news/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1101032521156290.xml

Please tell me the last time you heard the environment brought up as a big topic in a Gubernatorial or Senate race in this state. You keep telling me it's a top issue here.

Well, in the last gubernatorial race both candidates were pro-environment. I'm not going to argue this anymore...the environment has always been a big issue in PA. Just ask Terry Madonna.

Pro Environment. I love that title. Anyway, I asked when the last time you heard the environment discussed as a big issue in Gubernatorial/Senate race. I know you're avoiding the point. As for Terry Modonna, I watched a few of his lectures on PCN after this election. Times I heard him bring up the enviroment issue: 0.

Now I understand that in certain areas of the state, the enviroment is a big issue. However, I honestly don't believe it's made out to be as big of an issue as you'd like me to believe.

I don't think I'm making it out to be a bigger issue then it really is...The reason there is not much discussion on it is because the crappy economy and gambling have been taking the forfront in PA politics recently. It was a bigger issue during the 90's, but PA is still very big on the environment and much more then other states.

Well wouldn't it be fair to say that it's not that big of an issue if it hasn't been discussed for awhile? Don't get me wrong...there are parts of this state where the environment is one of the topic issues. I'm not disputing that. However, on the statewide level, if it hasn't been discussed in awhile, it's not exactly one of the biggest issues.