Bachmann bid for GOP leadership gets cool reaction

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Bachmann bid for GOP leadership gets cool reaction

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[Phony Moderate]

So a social Communist looks set to join the Republican hierarchy. What else is new?

[Torie]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

[??????????]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

Nice spin. What you fail to mention is that the Democrat party dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into her district, Nancy Pelosi marked her as her number 1 target for the election and Obama, Clinton and crew campaigned in her district. Her winning with the numbers she did is actually BETTER then I expected.

[memphis]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).

[cinyc]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).

A R+1 PVI doesn't mean a district is Republican leaning in the abstract.  It means that the district is one point more Republican-leaning than the average of the 2004 and 2008 Presidential votes.  Obama won by more than Bush, meaning a an R+1 PVI district actually leaned toward the Democrats, on average, in the past two presidential elections.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

she should NOT be in the leadership

[Torie]

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 19% margin ((7x2)+5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She won by 12%.  That is not very good, losing by 7% if the GOP bias of her district's GOP bias disappeared, in a wave GOP year.

And yes, the GOP may have gained some seats net this year, if they lost the generic ballot by performance was minus 7%, because that was better than 2008's minus 10.5%. Say as a wild guess, perhaps 10-15 seats - basically just the blue dogs living in very GOP districts.

In short, Bachmann is a drag - and a huge one - for the GOP. That is what the voters of her district who are swing voters whose sways back and forth decide elections, are telling us.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Hensarling is a bright guy, and I don't know how he wouldn't be considered conservative enough.

[??????????]

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 11% margin ((7x2)-5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She got 12%.  That is not very good, beating break even by 1%, as a GOP incumbent in a GOP wave year. I suspect it is the worst performance of any GOP incumbent who was running.

And if every GOP candidate ran as well as she did, it is not clear to me that the GOP would have won the House, and an additional dozen GOP incumbents would have lost. If you break even in a wave year, how are you going to do in a break even year?  In short, she's a drag, a big one.

Nice spin. What you fail to mention is that the Democrat party dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into her district, Nancy Pelosi marked her as her number 1 target for the election and Obama, Clinton and crew campaigned in her district. Her winning with the numbers she did is actually BETTER then I expected.

[??????????]

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.

[King]

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.

Lincoln Chaffee was never in the leadership.

[??????????]

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.

Lincoln Chaffee was never in the leadership.

Just talking about the type of GOPer Jamfest wants.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.

Lincoln Chaffee was never in the leadership.

Just talking about the type of GOPer Jamfest wants.

jmfsct wants "Thune/Pence" as leaders. In fact, "Thune/Pence" is the solution to every problem according to jmfcst.

[Nichlemn]

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 19% margin ((7x2)+5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She won by 12%.  That is not very good, losing by 7% if the GOP bias of her district's GOP bias disappeared, in a wave GOP year.

And yes, the GOP may have gained some seats net this year, if they lost the generic ballot by performance was minus 7%, because that was better than 2008's minus 10.5%. Say as a wild guess, perhaps 10-15 seats - basically just the blue dogs living in very GOP districts.

In short, Bachmann is a drag - and a huge one - for the GOP. That is what the voters of her district who are swing voters whose sways back and forth decide elections, are telling us.

I don't know where you get this 5% from.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I love StatesRights' handwave. Never mind the fact that Bachmann spent $55 per vote she received. There ain't a person in Minneapolis btw that wasn't pissed beyond words at her stupid ads we had to view frequently whenever using YouTube, though I'll take some happiness in knowing that she was wasting money in buying ads for IP ranges obviously not in her district.

[Torie]

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 19% margin ((7x2)+5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She won by 12%.  That is not very good, losing by 7% if the GOP bias of her district's GOP bias disappeared, in a wave GOP year.

And yes, the GOP may have gained some seats net this year, if they lost the generic ballot by performance was minus 7%, because that was better than 2008's minus 10.5%. Say as a wild guess, perhaps 10-15 seats - basically just the blue dogs living in very GOP districts.

In short, Bachmann is a drag - and a huge one - for the GOP. That is what the voters of her district who are swing voters whose sways back and forth decide elections, are telling us.

I don't know where you get this 5% from.

PVI = difference from average of 2004 and 2008 POTUS performance. GOP margin in 2004 was 2.5%.  In 2008 the Dem margin was 7.5%. Average the two, and the EVEN PVI is 5% [2.5%] to the Dems ((2.5 + -7.5)/2 = -2.5%.)  Oops, I understand why you did not get it. The 5% I was talking about should have been 2.5%!  Well depreciate my remarks by 2.5% then. My bad.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Look the point is quite obvious: Bachmann is not that popular in her district. Might be easier to explain with simple math than the complex stuff Torie is using: She got a lower percentage in the seat this year than McCain did in 2008. Enough said.

[Хahar 🤔]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).

A R+1 PVI doesn't mean a district is Republican leaning in the abstract.  It means that the district is one point more Republican-leaning than the average of the 2004 and 2008 Presidential votes.  Obama won by more than Bush, meaning a an R+1 PVI district actually leaned toward the Democrats, on average, in the past two presidential elections.

So what this means is that Republicans have a structural advantage. In a 50-50 election, Republicans would presumably win a majority.

[Nichlemn]

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 19% margin ((7x2)+5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She won by 12%.  That is not very good, losing by 7% if the GOP bias of her district's GOP bias disappeared, in a wave GOP year.

And yes, the GOP may have gained some seats net this year, if they lost the generic ballot by performance was minus 7%, because that was better than 2008's minus 10.5%. Say as a wild guess, perhaps 10-15 seats - basically just the blue dogs living in very GOP districts.

In short, Bachmann is a drag - and a huge one - for the GOP. That is what the voters of her district who are swing voters whose sways back and forth decide elections, are telling us.

I don't know where you get this 5% from.

PVI = difference from average of 2004 and 2008 POTUS performance. GOP margin in 2004 was 2.5%.  In 2008 the Dem margin was 7.5%. Average the two, and the EVEN PVI is 5% [2.5%] to the Dems ((2.5 + -7.5)/2 = -2.5%.)  Oops, I understand why you did not get it. The 5% I was talking about should have been 2.5%!  Well depreciate my remarks by 2.5% then. My bad.

The national margin is completely irrelevant to CPVI, since CPVI is all about results relative to the national margin. In a 50/50 year, even CPVI districts should go about 50/50.

[Guderian]

She will lose to Hensarling in a landslide, so this discussion is really academic.

[Lief 🗽]

I hope she wins. Our only hope of staving off the extremism is to make sure the American people know as soon as possible, before the 2012 election, how terrifying it really is. The rest of the GOP has essentially the same positions as Bachmann on every single issue; they're just better at hiding it.

[Eraserhead]

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.

Lincoln Chaffee was never in the leadership.

Just talking about the type of GOPer Jamfest wants.

jmfsct wants "Thune/Pence" as leaders. In fact, "Thune/Pence" is the solution to every problem according to jmfcst.

LOL. So true.

[Torie]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).

A R+1 PVI doesn't mean a district is Republican leaning in the abstract.  It means that the district is one point more Republican-leaning than the average of the 2004 and 2008 Presidential votes.  Obama won by more than Bush, meaning a an R+1 PVI district actually leaned toward the Democrats, on average, in the past two presidential elections.

So what this means is that Republicans have a structural advantage. In a 50-50 election, Republicans would presumably win a majority.

I think I have this right now. A 50-50 district has a PVI of GOP +1.25%.  It is confusing, because the zero PVI baseline has a Dem bias since Obama won by a bigger margin than Bush 2004.

[Nichlemn]

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

As a result of the packing of Dem voters, there are 234 GOP PVI districts, 9 ties, and 201 Dem PVIs. This House election was unusual in that PVI was a pretty good predictor of the result (not in all cases, obviously).

A R+1 PVI doesn't mean a district is Republican leaning in the abstract.  It means that the district is one point more Republican-leaning than the average of the 2004 and 2008 Presidential votes.  Obama won by more than Bush, meaning a an R+1 PVI district actually leaned toward the Democrats, on average, in the past two presidential elections.

So what this means is that Republicans have a structural advantage. In a 50-50 election, Republicans would presumably win a majority.

I think I have this right now. A 50-50 district has a PVI of GOP +1.25%.  It is confusing, because the zero PVI baseline has a Dem bias since Obama won by a bigger margin than Bush 2004.

There is no bias. That's precisely what CPVI is designed to counter. A district that voted for Obama by the same as his national margin would have an even CPVI for 2008. It would also have an even CPVI for 2004 if it voted for Bush by the same as his national margin. It would thus be expected to vote 50/50 Republican/Democratic in a Presidential election that was 50/50.