Read my lips- 1992 election scenario

[reagan84]

Hey all,
Noob here.  Hope this hasn't been covered before.  Bush 41 had an approval rating in the 80s after the first Gulf War and seemed invincible heading into the '92 election.  His approval rating dropped 40 pts almost overnight after he reneged on his "Read my lips no new taxes" pledge.  Forgive my ignorance as I don't know how to show the maps but how does the election go if Bush keeps his word not to raise taxes?  I say he wins comfortably (300-320 EV) but it's not a landslide because the economy still wasn't very good.  Does Perot do any better or worse under this scenario? 
How does Bush's 2nd term go?
  There's no Republican takeover of Congress in '94.
Given the same strong economy in '96, who runs and who wins?
I say the Dems have a good shot because of the Reagan/Bush fatigue and lack of strong GOP candidate.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Welcome to the forum! This would make an interesting timeline. Here are a couple of things:
1) In order to post maps, you need to have posted 20 times
2) To post maps, go https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php?year=2008. After you make what map you want in whatever year you want, go to "Show Map Link", and copy the map link into your update.

3) If Bush hadn't raised taxes, then Buchanan might no have run for the Republican nomination. Not only would this help Bush, but there would've been less run off to Perot, who benefitted from populist run off from both parties because of Buchanan with the Republicans and Jerry Brown with the Democrats.

4) It would be hard to say how the election would go in terms of victory, but Bush would definitely have a better chance, however, keep in mind that the Republicans already had twelve years in the Whitehouse, and a bad economy would be the perfect thing to use against the incumbent party.

[reagan84]

Thanks.  You're probably right about Buchanan and Perot.  In '92, Clinton won by about 5.5% nationally and many states by slim margins.  I say that despite the weak economy and the fact that the GOP had been in power for 12 years, Bush would have won if he had not raised taxes but may still have lost the popular vote:
  However, the Dems would have a pretty easy win in '96.  Maybe Gore vs Dole with an outcome similar to RL.
Anyone up for writing a TL with this scenario?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I would love to write a timeline on this, but right now, I've got two timelines going, and one still had forty five years to go before modern day.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I think that Bush's approval ratings are in the mid to upper forties throughout 1993 and into 1994. 9/11 happens under George HW Bush in 1994. The republicans narrowly take control of congress in the 1994 elections. One reason for this is that Bush's victory in 1992 pulls a few more republicans into the senate that year and that makes it more realistically possible for them in 1994.

Bush maintains good popularity until another recession comes in the middle of 1995.

Vice President Dan Quayle beats back some tough GOP challengers and wins the republican nomination in 1996. He looses the 1996 election to Bill Clinton by about a 335-203 electoral vote loss. The election looks close, but on election night, it is pretty clear that Clinton is the winner. Democrats gain back control of the house, but republicans still have the senate.

1) Why would 9/11 happen seven years earlier because of one election?
2) Wy would the Democrats renominate Clinton?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Do u all agree w/me that the GOP would take congress in 1994?

No.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I think that Bush's approval ratings are in the mid to upper forties throughout 1993 and into 1994. 9/11 happens under George HW Bush in 1994. The republicans narrowly take control of congress in the 1994 elections. One reason for this is that Bush's victory in 1992 pulls a few more republicans into the senate that year and that makes it more realistically possible for them in 1994.

Bush maintains good popularity until another recession comes in the middle of 1995.

Vice President Dan Quayle beats back some tough GOP challengers and wins the republican nomination in 1996. He looses the 1996 election to Bill Clinton by about a 335-203 electoral vote loss. The election looks close, but on election night, it is pretty clear that Clinton is the winner. Democrats gain back control of the house, but republicans still have the senate.

1) Why would 9/11 happen seven years earlier because of one election?
2) Wy would the Democrats renominate Clinton?

Terrorism was already a major threat in the united states of ameica. In real life, the Oklahoma city bombings happened during the Clinton first term. The Oklahoma city bombings do not happen in my presented scenario, but 9/11 does happen early.

Clinton was power hungry...he would have taken the 1992 defeat very hard. I remember reading about his loss in 1980. The book said that he was literally on the ground crying, and his wife had to call and conceed to the opponent. He would have run a good campaign in 1992, made a lot of friends, but just not quite made it. He would be able to get the nomination again if he wanted it.

OK, I can buy Clinton winning the nomination again in 96, however, an early 9/11 seems unlikely. A more realistic scenario would be that the attempted world trade center bombing in '93 goes bad or something. However, I think that 9/11 was the result of the continued terrorist attacks during the nineties, and they were all tests to see how far the terrorists could go. Why would 9/11 happen with Bush in office, and not with Clinton?

[heatmaster]

In 1992, Bush is reelected but his electoral triumph is smakker than in 1988 and Clinton winning 48% helps for another shot in 1996. Meanwhile here's the map for 1992.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

How would Clinton carry Georgia (a state he won by less than 1%), but lose Michigan, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, states he carried by much larger margins?

[heatmaster]

I will go with the premise of another Clintonrun in 1996, he faces Quayle and Jack Kemp, my prediction is that Clinton goes with Joe Biden The EV is 335 for Clinton-Bidento 203for Quayle-Kemp

[heatmaster]

Clinton having won the presidency, decides to battle for social security reform and unlike in RL he doesn't have Kenneth Starr or Monica Lewinsky dogging his every move. The 1998 mid-terms are pretty much a wash for both parties. Clinton-Biden face 2000 in pretty good shape, the battle for the GOP nomination is between Quayle, McCain and  Alexander and it is Lamar Alexander who emerges with the lion's share of the delegates, he plumps for Senator John McCain of Arizona. Here's the 2000 map, it is 377 for Clinton-Biden to 161 for Alexander-McCain

[heatmaster]

Clinton's second term is overshadowed by 9/11 and the war in Afghanistan and to a lesser extent in Iraq. As the 2004 election season fires up, the GOP field includes, John McCain, Jeb Bush, Dan Quayle who desperately clings for a comeback, the Democrats go for safety, and select Vice President Joe Biden. The parties go for the conventional choices of McCain-Bush for the GOPand for the Democrats it is Biden-Landrieu. Hillary Clinton returns to Illinois and runs for U.S. Senate, which she unfortunately wins. McCain-Bush wins with 322 to 216 for Biden-Landrieu
Here's my 2004 map.

[heatmaster]

As 2008 begins, John McCain in nearly 72, and feels he can serve another term, he is therefore unopposed for GOP nomination, the Democrats end up supporting John Kerry of Massachusetts, Kerry was Clinton's second term Secretary of State, the Democrats go with Kerry-Clinton On election day  the result is 374 for McCain-Bush to 164 for Kerry-Clinton

[Jerseyrules]

Maybe GOP takes Congress 2 years early; Bush dumps Quayle as his VP and picks Pete Wilson or George Deukmijian to balance the ticket.  (Or perhaps even Al D'Amato or Jack Kemp )  Anyway GHW picks James Buckley and Condoleeza Rice for the open SCOTUS seats

Anyway, Slick Willy bows out not wanting to go down in flames, no NAFTA = no Perot campaign.

George H. W. Bush / Al D'Amato: 54.7% PV; 487 EV
Al Gore / Joe Biden: 43.5% PV; 51 EV

[Jerseyrules]

1994 is a wash for the GOP; they gain a few seats in the house and gain 2 seats in the senate (including the suprise win of Mitt Romney over Ted Kennedy) due to the economic prosperity brought in by new tax cuts, as well as the Federal Reserve reforms.  In 1996, the GOP nominates Bob Dole, who picks Jack Kemp as his running mate (D'Amato insists it is not his time to run.)  The 1996 election is a hollow victory for Democrat Ann Richards, as the GOP strengthens their control in both houses of Congress.

[Jerseyrules]

In the 1998 midterms President Richards is unable to unite her party after caving to the GOP Congress on welfare reform and a balanced budget amendment.  Her party loses several senate seats and over 20 house seats, including that of Minority Leader Dick Gephart.  She discovers that she is dieing of cancer soon after the midterms, and announces she will not run for re-election.  This prompts former Vice President Al D'Amato to announce his candidacy for President.  His VP choice is Massachussetts Senator Mitt Romney.  The Dems nominate Vice President Bill Clinton for president and Florida governor Bob Graham for VP.  The brothers Bush will stay out of the race for now, and focus on running their states (both won their respective governorships in 1994 thanks to aggresive campaigning by both their father and Ronald Reagan.)

Fmr. Vice President Alphonse D'Amato (R-NY) / Sen. Mitt Romney (R-MA): 57.4%
Vice President Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Fmr. Gov. Bob Graham (D-FL): 39.8%

[Jerseyrules]

In August, President Al D'Amato responds to a memo entitled "Planned terrorist attack on the World Trade Center" by immediately placing all the nation on high alert.  Meanwhile, he thanks Pakistani militia for capturing and killing Osama Bin Ladin, a well-known terrorist.  This puts the nation at ease.  The president cuts taxes further, creating a flat income tax of 10% and creating private accounts for social security and medicare.  Meanwhile, a negative income tax is set up as a replacement to the minimum wage and welfare, as well as medicaid.  These reforms take much of the bureauocracy out of welfare, pleasing both liberals and conservatives, save for former rep. Bernie Sanders who screeches "This is the death of the Great Society and the New Deal!  Henry Wallace and Lyndon Johnson are turning over in their graves thanks to all this right-wing social engineering!"  However, the common man in 2002 responds to the president's policies by giving the GOP a 63-seat strong majority in the senate and an additional 20 seats in the House.  Newt Gingrich is re-elected as Speaker.  Meanwhile, in 2004, the GOp gains several more seats in both the senate and the house as President D'Amato is re-elected by a 61% PV margin over Democrats John Kerry and CA governor Gray Davis (who was defeated in a recall election by Tom Campbell)

[Jerseyrules]

President Pothole remains popular, and gets his third term when his vice president handily defeats fmr. AR gov. Bill Clinton and his VP choice, Mark Warner lose handily due to sex scandal allegations directed at Slick Willy.  The GOP holds onto Congress in the 06 midterms, only losing a handful of seats in the house and holding firm in the senate.  President-elect Mitt Romney will become the first Morman president.

Vice President Willard Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Gov. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX): 58.3% PV
Fmr. Gov Bill Clinton (D-AK) / Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA): 41.6% PV

[Jerseyrules]

Going into 2010, Sen. John F. Kennedy Jr., who was re-elected handily to his senate seat in 2006 (defeating liberal Republican Rudy Giuliani, a rematch of the 2000 election), stumps throughout the nation campaigning for moderate to conservative Democrats.  He would go on to help the Democrats take 5 senate seats and 20 house seats, leaving the GOP in a still-powerful but slightly weakened majority.  To many analysts, Senator Kennedy is the clear front-runner going into 2012.  He wins the nomination over fmr. rep. Barrack Obama (D-IL) handily.  Meanwhile, while the economy is doing well, a good sign for the GOP going into November, after twelve years of GOP domination, the public is ready for a change.  President Mitt Romney is narrowly defeated by the young Senator Kennedy for re-election, and actually wins the popular vote by 1%, yet JFK jr. won the electoral college with 275 EVs).  President Romney gracefully retires, and the campaign fought between the two men was clean and without mudslinging, a rarity in American politics.  Vice President Bush will angrily leave the Vice Presidency, though is appointedto the Senate seat in Texas vacated by now-Governor Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2015.  Within 4 years, he becomes the Senate Majority Whip (the GOP retains control of both houses of Congress going into the Kennedy Presidency; his VP choice is defeated Sen. Blanche Lincoln.)  In 2014, the GOP makes significant gains, critisized by his fellow Democrats for doing nothing to campaign for them.

[Jerseyrules]

In 2015, Newt Gingrich retires after 20 consecutive years as Speaker of the House.  Sen. George Pataki (a popular four-term governor who then won election to John-John's old senate seat in 2012) will be a candidate for the 2016 election.  President Kennedy relents and cuts taxes to a flat 8% rate and corporate rates to a flat 15% rate, with no deductions for either.  Senate Majority Leader Herman Cain and Speaker of the House John Boehner praise this move, calling it "What is truly best for America."  Meanwhile, with the economy greatly improving, President Kennedy appears tough to beat for re-election in 2016, however Senators Scott Brown and William Weld (both from Massachussetts) throw their hats into the ring for the 2016 nomination, as does Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and Connie Mack IV (R-FL).  Texas and Florida senators Jeb and George Bush, as well as Senator Marco Rubio of Florida decline any interest in the nomination, as does president Romney.  The nomination is won by Scott Brown, who loses narrowly to President Kennedy, however the GOP makes massive gains in both houses of Congress. (Though President Kennedy appears quite content by the GOP majorities in private, believing this way he can blame his own mistakes on a do-nothing GOP Congress.)

[Jerseyrules]

In the 2018 elections, the GOP gains several new governorships, for a total of 45.  Puerto Rico and Guam join the union, both sending entirely GOP delegations.  The GOP gains greater than 2/3 majorities in both houses of Congress, and begin instituting new reforms such as elimination of the estate tax and capital gain tax.  In 2020, Rand Paul wins the nomination, calling himself "a new kind of Republican," and picks Senate Majority Whip Marco Rubio of Florida to balance the ticket.  (Herman Cain has retired as Majority Leader, though not from the senate entirely; he remains in the senate, though without any major leadership position.)  He goes on to defeat Vice President Blanche Lincoln in a landslide, picking up several new seats in Congress and a few new governorships as well.  His father, the ailing and legendary Senator Ron Paul of Texas, is pleased he lived to see the day his son became president, though had to view it sitting in a wheelchair, at age 85.  He said that he'd "be damned if I didn't leave to see my boy's inauguration."  His son mentions this, as well as his father's struggle for freedom throughout his career, and the elder Paul begins bawling, and his son rushes to comfort him.  He stands up for the final time in his life, to hug and congradulate his son on becoming the 46th President of the United States.

The End