2011 State Elections in Germany

[republicanism]

What's the place in the East where the CDU did so well?

That's Mahlsdorf, middle class suburbia.
In fact it's "Germany's largest contiguous area of single-family-houses and two-family-houses", as Wikipedia tells us.

[Tender Branson]

A few new polls today:

Nordrhein-Westfalen (YouGov)

33% SPD
33% CDU
17% Greens
  6% FDP
  5% Left
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Rheinland-Pfalz (Infratest dimap)

39% SPD
34% CDU
16% Greens  
  3% Pirates
  3% Left
  2% FDP
  3% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[republicanism]

Hard to imagine that the Greens in Rhineland-Palatinate are stronger now than at the election two weeks after Fukushima.
Especially since they lost 4-8 points in the national polls from their all-time-high in March/April.

I see them at 13-14 in both states.

[Tender Branson]

New FGW poll:

34%   (nc) CDU/CSU
30%  (+7) SPD
18%  (+7) Greens
  6%   (-6) Left
  4%  (+2) Pirate Party
  4% (-11) FDP
  4%  (+1) Others

[minionofmidas]

Mitte
1A   100-3               Friedrich-Wilhelm-Stadt, Nordbahnhof
WBR   4491   WBT   2900   64.6   gültig   2875   SPD   793   27.6   CDU   595   20.7   Grüne   662   23.0   Linke   311   10.8                           Piraten   258   9.0   NPD   28   1.0   FDP   116   4.0   
1B   104, 120, 124, 128-31         Gesundbrunnen südlich des Humboldthain (Wedding)
WBR   7717   WBT   3726   48.3   gültig   3657   SPD   1261   34.5   CDU   864   23.6   Grüne   537   14.7   Linke   251   6.9                           Piraten   314   8.6   NPD   65   1.8   FDP   37   1.0   
1C   107, 110-2, 114         Bernauer Straße         
WBR   5675   WBT   3949   69.6   gültig   3913   SPD   979   25.0   CDU   529   13.5   Grüne   1416   36.2   Linke   338   8.6                           Piraten   383   9.8   NPD   27   0.7   FDP   92   2.4
1D   113, 115-7, 123         untere Kastanienallee, östliche Torstraße
WBR   5372   WBT   3454   64.3   gültig   3416   SPD   847   24.8   CDU   454   13.3   Grüne   1242   36.4   Linke   290   8.5                           Piraten   344   10.1   NPD   15   0.4   FDP   90   2.6
1E   105, 106, 108, 109, 125, 126      zwischen Torstraße und Invalidenstraße
WBR   5392   WBT   3489   64.7   gültig   3466   SPD   906   26.1   CDU   552   15.9   Grüne   1061   30.6   Linke   344   9.9                           Piraten   346   10.0   NPD   24   0.7   FDP   100   2.9
1F   118, 119, 121, 122, 127      Scheunenviertel
WBR   4165   WBT   2601   62.4   gültig   2587   SPD   607   23.5   CDU   378   14.6   Grüne   817   31.6   Linke   303   11.7                           Piraten   261   10.1   NPD   27   1.0   FDP   78   3.0

2A   207, 209-11, 229-231         Rosa-Luxemburg-Platz, Hackescher Markt
WBR   6031   WBT   3747   62.1   gültig   3673   SPD   957   26.1   CDU   523   14.2   Grüne   990   27.0   Linke   600   16.3                           Piraten   358   9.7   NPD   23   0.6   FDP   68   1.9
2B   200-4, 228            Friedrichstadt
WBR   6406   WBT   4148   64.8   gültig   4098   SPD   1126   27.5   CDU   883   21.5   Grüne   501   12.2   Linke   967   23.6                           Piraten   282   6.9   NPD   49   1.2   FDP   112   2.7
2C   205, 206, 208, 212, 218, 220, 226   Alt-Berlin, Friedrichswerder
WBR   6539   WBT   4120   63.0   gültig   4065   SPD   1153   28.4   CDU   529   13.0   Grüne   456   11.2   Linke   1299   32.0                           Piraten   278   6.8   NPD   55   1.4   FDP   77   1.9
2D   219, 221-4, 227         Luisenstadt (Teil in Mitte)
WBR   5987   WBT   3756   62.7   gültig   3690   SPD   1133   30.7   CDU   481   13.0   Grüne   520   14.1   Linke   972   26.3                           Piraten   283   7.7   NPD   56   1.5   FDP   49   1.3
2E   213-7, 225            Alexanderplatz und östlich
WBR   6178   WBT   3983   64.5   gültig   3935   SPD   1166   29.6   CDU   446   11.3   Grüne   285   7.2   Linke   1439   36.6                           Piraten   269   6.8   NPD   89   2.3   FDP   26   0.7

3A   300, 301, 327-30         Hauptbahnhof, Reichstag
WBR   6154   WBT   3478   56.5   gültig   3417   SPD   929   27.2   CDU   848   24.8   Grüne   704   20.6   Linke   231   6.8                           Piraten   364   10.7   NPD   38   1.1   FDP   57   1.7
3B   322-6               Tiergarten
WBR   6024   WBT   3244   53.9   gültig   3198   SPD   919   28.7   CDU   694   21.7   Grüne   792   24.8   Linke   193   6.0                           Piraten   315   9.8   NPD   18   0.6   FDP   80   2.5
3C   317-21               Hansaviertel
WBR   4670   WBT   3123   66.9   gültig   3080   SPD   832   27.0   CDU   837   27.2   Grüne   815   26.5   Linke   167   5.4                           Piraten   207   6.7   NPD   21   0.7   FDP   73   2.4
3D   302-6, 313            Moabit Südost
WBR   5996   WBT   3973   66.3   gültig   3911   SPD   1087   27.8   CDU   786   20.1   Grüne   1218   31.1   Linke   215   5.5                           Piraten   331   8.5   NPD   30   0.8   FDP   85   2.2
3E   307-11               Moabit Südwest
WBR   4892   WBT   2597   53.1   gültig   2562   SPD   757   29.5   CDU   404   15.8   Grüne   711   27.8   Linke   149   5.8                           Piraten   310   12.1   NPD   29   1.1   FDP   34   1.3
3F   312, 314-6            Moabit Süd
WBR   4673   WBT   3248   69.5   gültig   3213   SPD   913   28.4   CDU   604   18.8   Grüne   1040   32.4   Linke   187   5.8                           Piraten   264   8.2   NPD   26   0.8   FDP   47   1.5

4A   400-2, 404-7            Moabit Nordwest
WBR   6834   WBT   3405   49.8   gültig   3343   SPD   939   28.1   CDU   529   15.8   Grüne   802   24.0   Linke   238   7.1                           Piraten   477   14.3   NPD   60   1.8   FDP   48   1.4   
4B   403, 420-3            Nordhafen
WBR   4801   WBT   2670   55.6   gültig   2642   SPD   720   27.3   CDU   410   15.5   Grüne   720   27.3   Linke   180   6.8                           Piraten   378   14.3   NPD   33   1.2   FDP   40   1.5
4C   408-13               Moabit Nord
WBR   5867   WBT   3531   60.2   gültig   3477   SPD   932   26.8   CDU   530   15.2   Grüne   1015   29.2   Linke   246   7.1                           Piraten   433   12.5   NPD   37   1.1   FDP   50   1.4
4D   414, 415, 417, 418         Moabit Nordost
WBR   3949   WBT   2086   52.8   gültig   2042   SPD   606   29.7   CDU   366   17.9   Grüne   530   26.0   Linke   104   5.1                           Piraten   229   11.2   NPD   23   1.1   FDP   34   1.7
4E   416, 419, 424, 425, 427, 428      Wedding zwischen Genter Straße und Seestraße
WBR   6264   WBT   3361   53.7   gültig   3286   SPD   885   26.9   CDU   463   14.1   Grüne   877   26.7   Linke   250   7.6                           Piraten   476   14.5   NPD   38   1.2   FDP   46   1.4
4F   426, 429-33            Wedding westlich Tegeler Straße, südlich Genter Straße
WBR   6145   WBT   3133   51.0   gültig   3068   SPD   884   28.8   CDU   394   12.8   Grüne   836   27.2   Linke   278   9.1                           Piraten   408   13.3   NPD   37   1.2   FDP   28   0.9

5A   500-4, 514, 515         nördl. Afrikanisches Viertel, Rehberge
WBR   6225   WBT   3117   50.1   gültig   3022   SPD   1005   33.3   CDU   739   24.5   Grüne   425   14.1   Linke   192   6.4                           Piraten   309   10.2   NPD   77   2.5   FDP   51   1.7
5B   516-21               südl. Afrikanisches Viertel
WBR   5605   WBT   3186   56.8   gültig   3127   SPD   850   27.2   CDU   680   21.7   Grüne   677   21.7   Linke   200   6.4                           Piraten   375   12.0   NPD   51   1.6   FDP   51   1.6
5C   505-8, 512, 527         zwischen Müllerstraße, Barfusstraße, Holländerstraße
WBR   5951   WBT   3526   59.3   gültig   3454   SPD   1125   32.6   CDU   1106   32.0   Grüne   431   12.5   Linke   137   4.0                           Piraten   316   9.1   NPD   84   2.4   FDP   53   1.5
5D   509,11, 513, 522         zwischen Seestraße und Barfusstraße
WBR   4678   WBT   2206   47.2   gültig   2157   SPD   743   34.4   CDU   534   24.8   Grüne   267   12.4   Linke   130   6.0                           Piraten   198   9.2   NPD   57   2.6   FDP   30   1.4
5E   523-6, 528-30            zwischen Schulstraße und Seestraße
WBR   7873   WBT   3842   48.8   gültig   3758   SPD   1094   29.1   CDU   529   14.1   Grüne   840   22.4   Linke   309   8.2                           Piraten   559   14.9   NPD   52   1.4   FDP   40   1.1

6A   601, 602, 608-11         nördl. Gesundbrunnen westlich Wollankstraße
WBR   5755   WBT   2551   44.3   gültig   2484   SPD   717   28.9   CDU   395   15.9   Grüne   470   18.9   Linke   249   10.0                           Piraten   339   13.6   NPD   45   1.8   FDP   34   1.4   
6B   603-7               östlich Wollankstraße, nördl. Osloer Straße
WBR   4899   WBT   2212   45.2   gültig   2174   SPD   599   27.6   CDU   347   16.0   Grüne   445   20.5   Linke   202   9.3                           Piraten   288   13.2   NPD   50   2.3   FDP   19   0.9
6C   612, 632-5            südlich Osloer Straße
WBR   5887   WBT   2987   50.7   gültig   2901   SPD   916   31.6   CDU   417   14.4   Grüne   664   22.9   Linke   212   7.3                           Piraten   368   12.7   NPD   67   2.3   FDP   24   0.8
6D   623, 625-7, 630, 631         östlich des Humboldthain
WBR   5705   WBT   2549   44.7   gültig   2473   SPD   854   34.5   CDU   427   17.3   Grüne   437   17.7   Linke   237   9.6                           Piraten   228   9.2   NPD   46   1.9   FDP   22   0.9
6E   613-8, 621            östliches Pankebecken, nördlich des Humboldthain
WBR   6676   WBT   2935   44.0   gültig   2858   SPD   838   29.3   CDU   421   14.7   Grüne   565   19.8   Linke   211   7.4                           Piraten   406   14.2   NPD   52   1.8   FDP   44   1.5
6F   600, 619, 620, 622, 624, 628, 629   westliches Pankebecken (links der Wiesenstraße)
WBR   6628   WBT   2970   44.8   gültig   2906   SPD   890   30.6   CDU   550   18.9   Grüne   531   18.3   Linke   228   7.8                           Piraten   308   10.6   NPD   44   1.5   FDP   30   1.0

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I know I stretched the table there a bit. Anyways, Berlin Mitte by postal precinct.

Format

postal precinct, day precincts, short description
reg'd voters, turnout, valid, and then the parties

[minionofmidas]

Woah. The city of Berlin not just calculated these results by postal precinct (without apparently releasing the raw data, or maybe I haven't found them yet), it calculated Pearson correlations for certain social indicators and party strength in them, separately for East and West Berlin.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Other includes NPD and Pirates, despite their being separately listed.

East Berlin
Indicator SPD CDU GRÜNE DIE LINKE FDP Other NPD Pirate Non-voting
18-30 year olds – 0,59 – 0,64 0,16 – 0,45 – 0,29 0,46 – 0,14 0,48 0,45
30-60 year olds – 0,18 0,10 0,72 – 0,78 0,50 0,34 – 0,50 0,53 – 0,29
over 60 year olds 0,45 0,26 – 0,63 0,83 – 0,23 – 0,50 0,45 – 0,65 – 0,02
18-21 year olds – 0,62 – 0,15 – 0,56 – 0,03 – 0,33 – 0,17 0,47 – 0,36 0,72
over 80 year olds 0,45 0,12 – 0,41 0,69 – 0,23 – 0,36 0,25 – 0,44 – 0,09
high female share among 18-30 year olds 0,02 – 0,38 0,71 – 0,49 0,12 0,39 – 0,57 0,62 – 0,24
church membership (state churches) 0,16 0,03 0,93 – 0,65 0,57 0,39 – 0,73 0,69 – 0,57
German citizens with migrant background – 0,38 – 0,41 0,01 0,03 – 0,10 – 0,30 – 0,16 – 0,13 0,37
Non-Citizens – 0,08 – 0,34 0,59 – 0,25 0,28 0,12 – 0,66 0,46 – 0,16
Welfare recipients – 0,76 – 0,72 – 0,37 – 0,01 – 0,61 – 0,15 0,28 – 0,22 0,89
Welfare recipients with children – 0,61 – 0,68 – 0,51 0,25 – 0,65 – 0,28 0,33 – 0,36 0,85
lower rent areas  – 0,18 0,03 0,20 – 0,32 0,17 0,29 – 0,15 0,33 – 0,05
middling rent areas 0,07 – 0,18 – 0,27 0,35 – 0,31 – 0,25 0,22 – 0,32 0,19
high rent areas 0,22 0,29 0,14 – 0,06 0,28 – 0,08 – 0,14 – 0,02 – 0,27
people residing at address for >5 years 0,28 0,55 – 0,64 0,66 – 0,07 – 0,45 0,53 – 0,66 – 0,04

Berlin-West
18-30  – 0,63 – 0,83 0,08 0,74 – 0,69 0,71 – 0,07 0,67 0,68
30-60  – 0,23 – 0,56 0,75 0,68 – 0,26 0,56 – 0,45 0,76 – 0,09
60plus 0,52 0,83 – 0,49 – 0,85 0,57 – 0,76 0,31 – 0,86 – 0,36
18-21 – 0,46 – 0,39 – 0,26 0,30 – 0,45 0,37 0,21 0,18 0,56
80+ 0,30 0,54 – 0,42 – 0,60 0,35 – 0,59 0,18 – 0,66 – 0,12
young women – 0,07 – 0,35 0,35 0,30 – 0,11 0,17 – 0,28 0,31 0,04
churched 0,49 0,88 – 0,12 – 0,75 0,67 – 0,64 0,10 – 0,57 – 0,68
migrant background – 0,41 – 0,64 – 0,18 0,40 – 0,57 0,32 0,10 0,14 0,74
noncitizen – 0,52 – 0,84 0,29 0,75 – 0,50 0,54 – 0,33 0,63 0,56
welfare – 0,64 – 0,78 – 0,23 0,58 – 0,78 0,59 0,17 0,37 0,90
children – 0,61 – 0,77 – 0,27 0,55 – 0,79 0,58 0,22 0,35 0,91
simple – 0,58 – 0,54 – 0,30 0,44 – 0,66 0,59 0,39 0,29 0,71
middling 0,23 0,33 – 0,08 – 0,27 0,11 – 0,12 0,06 – 0,15 – 0,26
high 0,45 0,31 0,42 – 0,25 0,65 – 0,55 – 0,50 – 0,20 – 0,56
5 years+ 0,55 0,80 – 0,10 – 0,67 0,57 – 0,51 0,18 – 0,56 – 0,67

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wow that's beyond even my wide screen of my laptop as opposed to my smaller flat screen plug in

[republicanism]

Since the data Lewis posted is great, but hard to read, I decided to put some of the most interesting indicators into a more user-friendly format.
Some surprising (to me) correlations in bold:

Berlin East

younger than 30 years:
SPD -0,59
CDU -0,64
Greens +0,16
Linke -0,45
FDP -0,29
NPD -0,14
Pirates +0,48
Non-voting +0,45

older than 60 years:

SPD +0,45
CDU +0,26
Greens -0,63
Linke +0,83
FDP -0,23
NPD +0,45
Pirates -0,65
Non-voting -0,02

Migrantos:
SPD – 0,38
CDU – 0,41
Greens +0,01
Linke +0,03
FDP -0,10
NPD – 0,16
Pirates – 0,13
Non-voting +0,37

Welfare recipients
SPD – 0,76
CDU – 0,72
Greens – 0,37
Linke– 0,01
FDP -0,61
NPD +0,28
Pirates  – 0,22
Non-voting +0,89

lower rent areas 
SPD – 0,18
CDU +0,03
Greens +0,20
Linke – 0,32
FDP +0,17
NPD – 0,15
Pirates +0,33
Non-voting – 0,05

middling rent areas
SPD +0,07
CDU – 0,18
Greens – 0,27
Linke +0,35
FDP -0,31
NPD +0,22
Pirates – 0,32
Non-voting 0,19

high rent areas
SPD +0,22
CDU +0,29
Greens +0,14
Linke – 0,06
FDP  +0,28
NPD – 0,14
Pirates – 0,02
Non-voting – 0,27

---

Berlin West

younger than 30 years
SPD – 0,63
CDU– 0,83
Greens +0,08
Linke +0,74
FDP -0,69
NPD – 0,07
Pirates +0,67
Non-voting +0,68

older than 60 years
SPD +0,52
CDU +0,83
Greens – 0,49
Linke – 0,85
FDP +0,57
NPD +0,31
Pirates – 0,86
Non-voting – 0,36

Migrantos
SPD – 0,41
CDU – 0,64
Greens – 0,18
Linke +0,40
FDP -0,57
NPD +0,10
Pirates +0,14
Non-voting +0,74

on welfare
SPD – 0,64
CDU – 0,78
Greens – 0,23
Linke +0,58
FDP -0,61
NPD +0,17
Pirates +0,37
Non-voting +0,90

lower rent areas
SPD – 0,58
CDU– 0,54
Greens – 0,30
Linke +0,44
FDP -0,66
NPD +0,39
Pirates +0,29
Non-voting +0,71

middle rent areas
SPD +0,23
CDU +0,33
Greens – 0,08
Linke – 0,27
FDP +0,11
NPD +0,06
Pirates – 0,15
Non-voting – 0,26

high rent areas
SPD +0,45
CDU +0,31
Greens +0,42
Linke – 0,25
FDP +0,65
NPD – 0,50
Pirates – 0,20
Non-voting – 0,56

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, that data is fascinating.

[Tender Branson]

New Spiegel poll by TNS Emnid:

31%  [+8] SPD
31%   [-3] CDU/CSU
18%  [+7] Greens
  7%   [-5] Left
  5%  [+3] Pirate Party
  4% [-11] FDP
  4%  [+1] Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What is Migrantos? And if they are what I think they are, why are they voting NAZI?

Also, am I the only one bothered by the fact that 60+ people; the ones old enough to remember Hitler, are voting NAZI?

[minionofmidas]

What is Migrantos? And if they are what I think they are, why are they voting NAZI?

Also, am I the only one bothered by the fact that 60+ people; the ones old enough to remember Hitler, are voting NAZI?

Um, figures up to, oh, .3 or .35 or so should be read as "not correlated". Take the rent level figures for East Berlin for example: all they tell us is that that's not a factor determining party support in East Berlin in any way. (And that's without worrying about how the classification was arrived at.)

And I've never heard the word "migrantos" before either, but it means "Germans with indication of migrant background" here (which is defined as, either being a naturalized citizen, or being born with at least one parent not a German citizen, or being born in one of the countries from which we had "ethnic German" immigration since 45 [which means you technically weren't naturalized but recognized as having been a German all along], after january 1st 1946.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, I presume that this means that this sort of demographic data has been published somewhere?

[minionofmidas]

I particularly love the huge correlation of Green votes (also, to a lesser extent, Pirate votes) in East Berlin with church membership.
Of course, it's because "church members" in East Berlin is really just a proxy for West Germans.

[republicanism]

What is Migrantos? And if they are what I think they are, why are they voting NAZI?

I 'invented' the term because I was to lazy to wright "Germans with a migrant background". It is not a word used in German.

And was Lewis said, the low correlations don't really mean much.

Also, you have to keep in mind that the "ethnic Germans" from Russia and Eastern Europe that Lewis mentioned,  are included into the migrant panel, while at the same time many Turks, Arabs, Yugoslavians etc. don't have a passport and therefor can't vote in elections.

And the "ethnic" Germans' from Russia etc. show a very different voting pattern from other immigrant groups. Very strongly CDU and no less NPD than other Germans, to say the least.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't understand at all how these correlation work? Do you have the base raw numbers? Perhaps I could screw with those a make something that makes more sense to me.

[minionofmidas]

I think that's an exaggeration. Poland and Romania Germans are probably more likely to vote CDU than ex-Soviet Germans.
Fabulously low turnouts though aren't. That commonly held opinion seems to be absolutely true.

I don't understand at all how these correlation work? Do you have the base raw numbers?

Don't think I do.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I particularly love the huge correlation of Green votes (also, to a lesser extent, Pirate votes) in East Berlin with church membership.
Of course, it's because "church members" in East Berlin is really just a proxy for West Germans.

That may well be my favourite electoral statistic ever.

[Lief 🗽]

New Spiegel poll by TNS Emnid:

31%  [+8] SPD
31%   [-3] CDU/CSU
18%  [+7] Greens
  7%   [-5] Left
  5%  [+3] Pirate Party
  4% [-11] FDP
  4%  [+1] Others

getting a bit of a political boner here, honestly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, Forsa tries to top any other pollster again (national poll).

CDU/CSU 31%
SPD 29%
Greens 19%
Left 7%
Pirates 7%
FDP 2%

[republicanism]

Was about to post it myself in this very moment.

Forsa is indeed known for the extreme amplitudes in their polling.
They had the Greens (in April/May) and the FDP (in 2009) higher than anyone else, and the SPD lower than anyone else ever had right after the last Bundestag elections.

My forecast is that the other institutes will poll the Pirates at 5% in the next weeks, Forsa may even go for 8% (if only to make them overtake the Left and produce the headline "pirates fourth biggest party!").

After that they will fall, and will be below 5% in every poll in December/January.

[Tender Branson]

Another state is ready for the takeover, this time Schleswig-Holstein, says the new Infratest dimap poll for the NDR:



Direct vote for Governor:



Preferred coalition:



Potential of voting for the Pirates:



  4% Definitely vote for them
13% Maybe vote for them
18% Probably not vote for them
58% Definitely not vote for them

http://www.ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/umfrage453.html

...

There's also a new Bayern poll out by Emnid:

43% CSU
20% SPD
17% Greens
  9% Freie Wähler
  3% Left
  2% FDP
  6% Others

[Insula Dei]

Those S-H numbers are pretty damning. What's the absolute minimum number of states the FDP may have representation in by the next Bundeswahl?