2011 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Those S-H numbers are pretty damning. What's the absolute minimum number of states the FDP may have representation in by the next Bundeswahl?

Considering that 4 very important states will vote either before the 2013 federal election (Schleswig-Holstein & Niedersachsen) or on the same date (Bayern & Hessen) and the fact that the FDP will probably be kicked out in all of them according to new polls - then we can assume that the FDP is in the state parliaments only in Brandenburg, Hamburg, NRW, Saarland, Sachsen and Thüringen.

[Tender Branson]

Those S-H numbers are pretty damning. What's the absolute minimum number of states the FDP may have representation in by the next Bundeswahl?

Considering that 4 very important states will vote either before the 2013 federal election (Schleswig-Holstein & Niedersachsen) or on the same date (Bayern & Hessen) and the fact that the FDP will probably be kicked out in all of them according to new polls - then we can assume that the FDP is in the state parliaments only in Brandenburg, Hamburg, NRW, Saarland, Sachsen and Thüringen.

Sry, forgot Baden-Württemberg, where the FDP barely got more than 5% earlier this year.

[Lief 🗽]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the Schleswig-Holstein election be held exactly ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

May 6

[Franzl]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

[You kip if you want to...]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

The political equivalent to the Grits winning in Alberta? A Tory becoming the First Minister of Scotland?

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

The political equivalent to the Grits winning in Alberta? A Tory becoming the First Minister of Scotland?

Or a Green becoming minister-president of Baden-Württemberg.... oh, wait, that already happened.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

The political equivalent to the Grits winning in Alberta? A Tory becoming the First Minister of Scotland?

A self-proclaimed Thatcherite becoming mayor of Liverpool

[republicanism]

The numbers for the Greens in my home state of Schleswig-Holstein are way to high. 21%?

While they are at 19% (and falling) in the federal polls, got 17% in Berlin, and 15% in Rhineland-Palatinate just two weeks after Fukushima?

But besides that a very nice poll of course. Albig leading de Jager by double digits when campaign hasn't even started is definitely a good sign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The numbers for the Greens in my home state of Schleswig-Holstein are way to high. 21%?

While they are at 19% (and falling) in the federal polls, got 17% in Berlin, and 15% in Rhineland-Palatinate just two weeks after Fukushima?

Well, they ran a pretty sh**tty campaign in Berlin with a pretty mediocre candidate. Maybe things are different in S-H.

Keep in mind, the Greens won their best East German result ever in the East German state that is traditionally their weakest (MeckPomm). Despite the fact that Fukushima is over a couple of months now.

Just saying there are other factors.

[Tender Branson]

The numbers for the Greens in my home state of Schleswig-Holstein are way to high. 21%?

While they are at 19% (and falling) in the federal polls, got 17% in Berlin, and 15% in Rhineland-Palatinate just two weeks after Fukushima?

Well, they ran a pretty sh**tty campaign in Berlin with a pretty mediocre candidate. Maybe things are different in S-H.

Keep in mind, the Greens won their best East German result ever in the East German state that is traditionally their weakest (MeckPomm). Despite the fact that Fukushima is over a couple of months now.

Just saying there are other factors.

Isn't Renate Künast a carpetbagger as well ?

Maybe Berliners just didn't like someone from NRW ...

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz poll:

38% SPD
34% CDU
17% Greens
  3% Pirates
  2% Left
  2% FDP
  4% Others

Solid majority for the current SPD-Green government.

[Franzl]

The only really good thing going on right now is the Left's collapse in West Germany.

[minionofmidas]

The numbers for the Greens in my home state of Schleswig-Holstein are way to high. 21%?

While they are at 19% (and falling) in the federal polls, got 17% in Berlin, and 15% in Rhineland-Palatinate just two weeks after Fukushima?

Well, they ran a pretty sh**tty campaign in Berlin with a pretty mediocre candidate. Maybe things are different in S-H.

Keep in mind, the Greens won their best East German result ever in the East German state that is traditionally their weakest (MeckPomm). Despite the fact that Fukushima is over a couple of months now.

Just saying there are other factors.

Isn't Renate Künast a carpetbagger as well ?

Maybe Berliners just didn't like someone from NRW ...

Um, Künast moved to the doubly gated part of Germany in 1977.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Isn't Renate Künast a carpetbagger as well ?

Maybe Berliners just didn't like someone from NRW ...

First of all, Berliners didn't like someone who was only interested in becoming Governing Mayor and didn't care about being in Berlin state politics at all beyond that goal.

Second, Berliners didn't like someone who is so aggressive, polemic, cold, seemingly uncaring and "unpresidential" (or better, unmayoral) in her appearances.

Third, Green and/or left-leaning voters didn't like someone who tried to be more right-wing than the SPD (and sometimes even the CDU) in order to achieve the goal of becoming mayor.

[Tender Branson]

The numbers for the Greens in my home state of Schleswig-Holstein are way to high. 21%?

While they are at 19% (and falling) in the federal polls, got 17% in Berlin, and 15% in Rhineland-Palatinate just two weeks after Fukushima?

Well, they ran a pretty sh**tty campaign in Berlin with a pretty mediocre candidate. Maybe things are different in S-H.

Keep in mind, the Greens won their best East German result ever in the East German state that is traditionally their weakest (MeckPomm). Despite the fact that Fukushima is over a couple of months now.

Just saying there are other factors.

Isn't Renate Künast a carpetbagger as well ?

Maybe Berliners just didn't like someone from NRW ...

Um, Künast moved to the doubly gated part of Germany in 1977.

I think I read somewhere that Berliners didn't like Künast because she's from NRW or something.

Sounds crazy, but whatever ...

[Hans-im-Glück]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

No Franzl, my dreams come true. But the election is 2013 and this is a very long time. On the other hand the CSU and FDP must like Christian Ude very much, because they make in the moment all wrong what is possible

[Tender Branson]

Emnid confirms Forsa's Pirate attack:

32% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
17% Greens
  7% Pirates
  7% Left
  4% FDP
  5% Others

No majority for SPD-Greens (45-46).

[Antonio the Sixth]

*facepalm*

[republicanism]

Keep cool, elections are two years from. Germans will not vote for a joke party when their vote counts.

[Niemeyerite]

Keep cool, elections are two years from. Germans will not vote for a joke party when their vote counts.

This. Pirates and FDP will not win more than 5% of the vote.

[You kip if you want to...]

Emnid confirms Forsa's Pirate attack:

32% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
17% Greens
  7% Pirates
  7% Left
  4% FDP
  5% Others

No majority for SPD-Greens (45-46).

Vote Pirate, get Angela.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, not quite. Because those figures would still lead to a left-wing majority, it's just that the left-wing government elected as a result would not actually have a majority itself. Not an ideal situation, of course.

[Verily]

Have the Pirates ruled out government? Seems like SPD-Green-Pirate would be a lot more likely than CDU-SPD at this point.