2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Have the Pirates ruled out government? Seems like SPD-Green-Pirate would be a lot more likely than CDU-SPD at this point.

That would be the classic mistake of every observer of politics (including myself) - underestimating the stupidity and/or rightwingness of a center-left party's leading personnel.
Everybody should be attempting to not make it. All the time. You'll still fail a lot of the time, but it's worth the effort.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Have the Pirates ruled out government? Seems like SPD-Green-Pirate would be a lot more likely than CDU-SPD at this point.

They have ruled it out in Berlin.

They don't have a position regarding the federal level yet (and won't have one for another year), but they could do the same there.

[Lief 🗽]

SPD-Green government with support from Pirates would basically be perfect. SPD-CDU grand coalition is more likely to happen though, Lewis is right.

[Niemeyerite]

Why isn't a SPD/Green/Left coalition possible?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Because the Left has been in the headlines only two times this year. The first time was when they debated whether the Berlin Wall was a good or a bad thing. The second time was when they wished Fidel Castro a happy birthday.

[DL]

Why would the Pirate party rule out being part of a government. Isn't the whole point of being a political party and competing in elections - to get into government so you can carry out your program?

BTW: How did the Greens manage to let the Pirates get this far? Couldn't the Greens have co-opted them and adopted all their policies?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's not that the Pirates wouldn't want to be part of government as much as the SDP-Greens never would accept them into government. Besides if you're a small one-issue party it's much more effective to hold the balance of power between two government options. The Danish People's Party has had more influence on immigration than the FPÖ in Austria, even though FPÖ has been in government, the DPP has not.

[Hash]

I also strongly doubt the Pirates will actually win seats in the next federal elections. Things like these are fads.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why would the Pirate party rule out being part of a government. Isn't the whole point of being a political party and competing in elections - to get into government so you can carry out your program?

BTW: How did the Greens manage to let the Pirates get this far? Couldn't the Greens have co-opted them and adopted all their policies?

Answer to both questions: The Pirates are anti-establishment and that's the reason for their success in Berlin.

If the Pirates enter a coalition now, they could become part of the establishment too soon. At least that's what they probably fear themselves.

The Greens are already part of the establishment and can't decide to become anti-establishment again just like that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I also strongly doubt the Pirates will actually win seats in the next federal elections. Things like these are fads.

I really hope you are right.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I won't make any predictions regarding the future of the Pirates myself.

The Greens were probably considered a "fad" themselves back in 1980. 18 years later, they had a vice chancellor.

On the other hand, people quckly speculated about the emergence of another major party when the Schill party had their 20% success in Hamburg back in 2001. The party quickly desintegrated soon after.

[minionofmidas]

The Greens were probably considered a "fad" themselves back in 1980.

And that's by the most well-meaning of observers.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I also strongly doubt the Pirates will actually win seats in the next federal elections. Things like these are fads.

I really hope you are right.

In Sweden they managed to spurt up to 7% in the EU-election in '09 and then disappeared completly out of sight before the General Election a year later. I wouldn't worry too much. 

[minionofmidas]

Re Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg.  Pirates and Left are negotiating to find a joint candidate for the executive seat.

[Tender Branson]

Pirates have now overtaken the Left, says Forsa:

31% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
17% Greens
  8% Pirates
  7% Left 
  3% FDP
  6% Others

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If this trend continues, the pirates will win a majority

[Franzl]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

No Franzl, my dreams come true. But the election is 2013 and this is a very long time. On the other hand the CSU and FDP must like Christian Ude very much, because they make in the moment all wrong what is possible

Well....since yesterday you have a new (likely) CSU vote to worry about. Now officially a citizen of Bayern

[Tender Branson]

BTW, coalition talks in Berlin between SPD and Greens have failed.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,790046,00.html

[Tender Branson]

What's next for Berlin ?

SPD-CDU ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's next for Berlin ?

SPD-CDU ?

Of course.

Probably what the SPD wanted all along. Now they can build their freeway.

[republicanism]

Hehe

My forecast is that the other institutes will poll the Pirates at 5% in the next weeks, Forsa may even go for 8% (if only to make them overtake the Left and produce the headline "pirates fourth biggest party!").

After that they will fall, and will be below 5% in every poll in December/January.

First part of my prediction came true, hope the second part also will.

Of course.

Probably what the SPD wanted all along. Now they can build their freeway.

Actually, I think that both parties were not to enthusiastic about the idea of a SPD/Green government. With the SPD it is obvious, and the Greens were shocked about the Pirates' showing, and I think they knew fairly well that it would have been impossible to win back their anti-establishment and leftist-alternative vote while in government.

[Franzl]

Red-green "failing" so suddenly should seem artificial to most people.....amusing at any rate!

[Middle-aged Europe]

With the SPD it is obvious, and the Greens were shocked about the Pirates' showing, and I think they knew fairly well that it would have been impossible to win back their anti-establishment and leftist-alternative vote while in government.

No, the Greens certainly wanted to join the government. Not just at all costs (A100).

That's what I gathered from the debate in the Kreisverband Mitte and the Landesarbeitsgemeinschaft Demokratische Rechte.   I saw it coming though. One of the newly elected Green MPs seemed pretty pessimistic in the KV yesterday evening.

[Franzl]

In all seriousness and objectively, the A100 is a stupid idea. If there's one thing I tend to be green on it's transportation.

Berlin doesn't need another Autobahn. It's not like any sensible person drives through places like Berlin and Munich anyway.

[Tender Branson]

I almost saw it coming:

If the SPD can stay at 48 seats, they only need an ally with 27 to form government. The Greens are at 30 right now, so that's good news for them.

SPD-Greens could have one problem though:

The SPD favors the extension of the Berlin Stadtautobahn A100, which the Greens are completely opposed to. If the Greens are totally blocked in the coalition talks, the SPD could go for the CDU.