2011 State Elections in Germany

[Peter the Lefty]

Any polls on SPD Chancellor candidates nationally?  2013's not that far away. 

[ZuWo]

Given the national trend, these figures from Niedersachsen don't seem remarkable to me. However, I would be very surprised if the Greens managed to get 22% of the votes in Niedersachsen. I thought such a Green success would only be imaginable in Baden-Württemberg, where local issues and the heated debate on nuclear power have made a Green victory possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any polls on SPD Chancellor candidates nationally?  2013's not that far away.  

Found a poll from April.

SPD parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier 37%
Former finance minister Peer Steinbrück 26%
SPD federal chairman Sigmar Gabriel 13%

SPD voters only:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier 49%
Peer Steinbrück 27%
Sigmar Gabriel 13%

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/steinbrueck-nur-bei-rentnern-beliebter-als-steinmeier/4102106.html


Not that surprising to me. Steinmeier has a very "presidential" image (albeit a tad boring, then again he's also a centrist), while Gabriel often comes across as both clueless and aimless. Steinmeier sounds and looks like a Chancellor. Gabriel appears as if he has no idea what he's doing... and the thing is, he probably doesn't. Also, the fact that Steinmeier saved his wife's life by giving her one of his kidneys provided him with a human touch that makes him look a bit less robotic.

In any case, after Guttenberg's self-obliteration and Merkel's Fukushima flip-flop, Steinmeier has now become Germany's most popular politician, as evidenced by whis week's Politbarometer poll.

And Steinbrück... uh, probably popular among more conservative voters, but it remains to be seen whether the SPD's base could warm up to him. Biggest advantage: His stint as finance minister was usually regarded a successful one and left him with an image of comptence and experience.

[Peter the Lefty]

Any polls on SPD Chancellor candidates nationally?  2013's not that far away.  

Not that surprising to me. Steinmeier has a very "presidential" image (albeit a tad boring, then again he's also a centrist), while Gabriel often comes across as both clueless and aimless. Steinmeier sounds and looks like a Chancellor. Gabriel appears as if he has no idea what he's doing... and the thing is, he probably doesn't. Also, the fact that Steinmeier saved his wife's life by giving her one of his kidneys provided him with a human touch that makes him look a bit less robotic.

In any case, after Guttenberg's self-obliteration and Merkel's Fukushima flip-flop, Steinmeier has now become Germany's most popular politician, as evidenced by whis week's Politbarometer poll.

And Steinbrück... uh, probably popular among more conservative voters, but it remains to be seen whether the SPD's base could warm up to him. Biggest advantage: His stint as finance minister was usually regarded a successful one and left him with an image of comptence and experience.

 Are there any other candidates that could be considered i.e. Klaus Wowereit?

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is a rather acceptable Social Democrat actually. Under certain circumstances, I could see myself possibly supporting him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any polls on SPD Chancellor candidates nationally?  2013's not that far away.  

Not that surprising to me. Steinmeier has a very "presidential" image (albeit a tad boring, then again he's also a centrist), while Gabriel often comes across as both clueless and aimless. Steinmeier sounds and looks like a Chancellor. Gabriel appears as if he has no idea what he's doing... and the thing is, he probably doesn't. Also, the fact that Steinmeier saved his wife's life by giving her one of his kidneys provided him with a human touch that makes him look a bit less robotic.

In any case, after Guttenberg's self-obliteration and Merkel's Fukushima flip-flop, Steinmeier has now become Germany's most popular politician, as evidenced by whis week's Politbarometer poll.

And Steinbrück... uh, probably popular among more conservative voters, but it remains to be seen whether the SPD's base could warm up to him. Biggest advantage: His stint as finance minister was usually regarded a successful one and left him with an image of comptence and experience.

 Are there any other candidates that could be considered i.e. Klaus Wowereit?

Olaf Scholz has been frequently mentioned since he won an absolute majority for the SPD in Hamburg this February. But I suppose he wants to serve out his first term as mayor there before thinking about doing any other stuff.

Klaus Wowereit... well, let's see if he manages to get re-elected this September first. Other than hand, he's maybe a tad too left-wing (or rather, too much of a polarizing figure), something which already prevented him from becoming federal chairman of the SPD in 2009, I guess.

Let's throw in Northrhine-Westphalian prime minister Hannelore Kraft as a dark horse, while we're at it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be nice if the SPD had a left-wing leader for once...

[minionofmidas]

lolfdp

Rösler's Soft Coup is finely completed. He gets Brüderle's Economic Ministry. And his brother-in-arms Daniel Bahr gets Rösler's Health Ministry. But Brüderle won't leave quietly unless he's given a soft cushion to sit down on. He goes to chair the parliamentary party. And that incompetent Westerwelle crony who last chaired the parliamentary party, Birgit Homburger, won't leave quietly unless she's given a soft cushio to sit down on. So she becomes one of the three co vice chairs at the upcoming convention that is to ratify all these deals (including Rösler succeeding Westerwelle as chair). One of these was falling vacant anyways, as Andreas Pinkwart is not standing again (the other two are Brüderle and Cornelia Pieper). There had already been an earlier decision as to who gets that, of course... Daniel Bahr.

Somebody should maybe tell the FDP that Musical Chairs isn't much fun if the number of positions isn't constantly being reduced.

[Middle-aged Europe]

lolfdp

Rösler's Soft Coup is finely completed. He gets Brüderle's Economic Ministry. And his brother-in-arms Daniel Bahr gets Rösler's Health Ministry. But Brüderle won't leave quietly unless he's given a soft cushion to sit down on. He goes to chair the parliamentary party. And that incompetent Westerwelle crony who last chaired the parliamentary party, Birgit Homburger, won't leave quietly unless she's given a soft cushio to sit down on. So she becomes one of the three co vice chairs at the upcoming convention that is to ratify all these deals (including Rösler succeeding Westerwelle as chair). One of these was falling vacant anyways, as Andreas Pinkwart is not standing again (the other two are Brüderle and Cornelia Pieper). There had already been an earlier decision as to who gets that, of course... Daniel Bahr.

Somebody should maybe tell the FDP that Musical Chairs isn't much fun if the number of positions isn't constantly being reduced.

That's basically a model which has been discussed for months now: Brüderle resigns as economics minister, Rösler takes over for him and Bahr becomes new health minister.

Except that Brüderle is now allowed to retain a prominent top position within the party. So, it has become evident that Brüderle is too powerful (or Rösler is simply not powerful enough) to just get rid of him entirely. Hence this "compromise".

[minionofmidas]

If it was just that... but even Homburger is apparently too powerful to be removed entirely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If it was just that... but even Homburger is apparently too powerful to be removed entirely.

Homburger was still "demoted" though. But you're right, it seems she wasn't willing to resign her current position unless she gets some sort of compensation (in the form of a party vice chair).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Age structure of the cabinet after the reshuffle


Schäuble: 68
Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger: 59
de Maiziere: 57
Ramsauer: 57
Merkel: 56
Schavan: 55
Friedrich: 54
von der Leyen: 52
Pofalla: 51

Westerwelle: 49
Niebel: 48
Aigner: 46
Röttgen: 45
Rösler: 38
Bahr: 34
Schröder: 33


Average age: 50.1

Average age of CDU/CSU cabinet members: 52.2
Average age of FDP cabinet members: 45.6

[Peter the Lefty]

A new poll for Schleswig-Holstein (Forsa) from 9 May 2011 with 2009 result in parentheses: 
CDU: 31% (31.5%)
SPD: 31% (25.4%)
Greens: 18% (12.4%)
FDP: 7% (14.9%)
SSW: 5% (4.3%)
Left: 5% (6%)

Majority for SPD-Greens.  Too bad there isn't an election there this year as well as in Niedersachsen. 

[Tender Branson]

The Green bubble is receding once again, at least in Berlin.

New Infratest dimap poll out:

29% SPD
26% Greens
21% CDU
13% Left
  3% FDP
  8% Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interesting symmetry:

With today's inauguration of Winfried Kretschmann we have seven CDU minister-presidents, seven from the SPD, one from the Greens, and one from the CSU.

[Peter the Lefty]

Interesting symmetry:

With today's inauguration of Winfried Kretschmann we have seven CDU minister-presidents, seven from the SPD, one from the Greens, and one from the CSU.

Here's hoping that the 2012 state election in Schleswig-Holstein and the 2013 state election in Niedersachsen bring in two more SPD governors and kick out two CDU ones.  This would mean that 10 of the 16 Minister-Presidents are center-left with only 6 who are center-right.  

Unfortunately, the CSU will always be in power in Bavaria, so we shouldn't bother paying attention to the 2013 election there. Polls show that the national collapse in FDP support is helping the CSU so much that they could regain their precious majority which they once saw as a given.  If they don't get it back, than they could easily form a coalition with the FW.  If Bavaria ever sees Red-Green, or Green-Red, (or Red-Green-Red, or Green-Red-Red) it won't be for a very long time. 

[Tender Branson]

New Bremen poll by Infratest dimap:

36% SPD
24% Greens
20% CDU
  7% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Angry Citizens
  7% Others

[mileslunn]

Whats with the swing to the left in German politics?  Is it simply people like different parties in power at the state level than federal level as many of the CDU/CSU wins came when Schroeder was in power federally.  Is there also a backlash against the bailouts of countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.  The only reason I ask is Germany is doing quite well economically and usually that tends to favour re-electing governments whereas when things are going poorly people tend to turf them.  And unlike in Britain, I don't believe the Merkel government has made any major spending cuts which would get people upset either.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Whats with the swing to the left in German politics?  Is it simply people like different parties in power at the state level than federal level as many of the CDU/CSU wins came when Schroeder was in power federally.

In simple terms, yes. Germans often show their disapproval with whoever is in power at the federal level. Same thing happens during "mid-term elections" in other countries too. CDU/FDP would probably regain their majority in the Bundesrat in no time once they're in opposition again.  

Is there also a backlash against the bailouts of countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.  The only reason I ask is Germany is doing quite well economically and usually that tends to favour re-electing governments whereas when things are going poorly people tend to turf them.  And unlike in Britain, I don't believe the Merkel government has made any major spending cuts which would get people upset either.

Well, the bailouts are indeed unpopular in kind of a nationalistic "no German money for foreigners" way. Then again, the current opposition supports the bailouts as well.

[mileslunn]

That makes sense.  Although on the question of bailouts, what choice do they have.  Since they share the same currency, if they didn't bail them out this would cause the Euro to plunge.  The only option would be to withdraw from the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark, however EU rules prohibit withdrawing from the Euro so the only way they could do this is to withdraw from the EU outright which I have a tough time believing many Germans favour this.  A referendum to withdraw from the EU might pass in Britain but not Germany.

And also your thing on opposite ideologies at the state vs. federal seems similiar to other countries.  Here in Ontario, usually the provincial party in power is of a different political stripe than the federal one.

[Insula Dei]

That makes sense.  Although on the question of bailouts, what choice do they have.  Since they share the same currency, if they didn't bail them out this would cause the Euro to plunge.  The only option would be to withdraw from the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark, however EU rules prohibit withdrawing from the Euro so the only way they could do this is to withdraw from the EU outright which I have a tough time believing many Germans favour this.  A referendum to withdraw from the EU might pass in Britain but not Germany.

I'm not an expert but I don't think the Eurozone prohibits leaving the Euro, there's just no provision to do so. Germany leaving the EU is of course impossible  even more so than Greece or Italy leaving the Eurozone, as the rapid adoption of the Euro after 1990 was at least in part an attempt to make Germany have firm roots in the European Community.

[Peter the Lefty]

Is there a strong chance that Germany could have an SPD chancellor in 2013?  Or is Merkel still the front-runner?

[Lief 🗽]

Is there a strong chance that Germany could have an SPD chancellor in 2013?  Or is Merkel still the front-runner?

If an election were held today, the CDU would be lucky to have 40% of the seats and the FDP would be lucky to have any seats at all. So there's a rather strong chance, yes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Election is (in all likelihood) in two-and-a-half years. That's half an eternity in politics. Keep in mind that only one-and-a-half years ago, the FDP managed to win almost 15% of the vote.

Would the election be held today, CDU and FDP certainly wouldn't have a governing majority anymore. Which means there's a 50% chance for a SPD/Green majority, and a 50% chance that something of the other stuff happens (CDU/SPD, SPD/Greens minority government tolerated by the Left and so on).

[Hans-im-Glück]

Is there a strong chance that Germany could have an SPD chancellor in 2013?  Or is Merkel still the front-runner?

If an election were held today, the CDU would be lucky to have 40% of the seats and the FDP would be lucky to have any seats at all. So there's a rather strong chance, yes.

2013 is far away. Nobody can say who will win this election. We had 3 SPD-chancellor before, why not 2013. The polls are very bad for the FDP, but I'm 100% sure they will get more than 5% in the next election. Many CDU/CSU supporter know that they can only stay in power, when the FDP is in Parliament. Without the FDP, Red-Green (or Green_Red ) would have the majority without any doubt.