2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Since the FDP fights for its survival it has become a bit unpredictable. In any case, "save the party" is now the top priority, with all other considerations being secondary. If it gets Merkel into some trouble, so be it.

They thought that suddenly going eurosceptic would be a good move, considering that the European Stability Mechanism and the Greece bailouts are highly unpopular among voters and they would be the only "major" party being somewhat critical about it.

But like Franzl said, this move is just a bit too obvious and not very believable, so it probably won't work.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

[Tender Branson]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

It's more like this: Merkel has currently a lot of trouble within her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to secure enough votes for the upcoming bailout package vote for Greece. Many CDU/CSU/FDP are outspoken against this bailout package. If Merkel fails to get enough votes and the bailout package is rejected, Merkel would either be a lame-duck with the SPD supporting the government for the rest of election period, or Merkel steps down with Von der Leyen taking over as CDU-boss.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

It's more like this: Merkel has currently a lot of trouble within her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to secure enough votes for the upcoming bailout package vote for Greece. Many CDU/CSU/FDP are outspoken against this bailout package. If Merkel fails to get enough votes and the bailout package is rejected, Merkel would either be a lame-duck with the SPD supporting the government for the rest of election period, or Merkel steps down with Von der Leyen taking over as CDU-boss.

Wouldn't SPD vote in favor of the package anyways ?

[Tender Branson]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

It's more like this: Merkel has currently a lot of trouble within her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to secure enough votes for the upcoming bailout package vote for Greece. Many CDU/CSU/FDP are outspoken against this bailout package. If Merkel fails to get enough votes and the bailout package is rejected, Merkel would either be a lame-duck with the SPD supporting the government for the rest of election period, or Merkel steps down with Von der Leyen taking over as CDU-boss.

Wouldn't SPD vote in favor of the package anyways ?

Yeah and probably also the Greens. But it would be kinda sad for Merkel if this gets passed only with the votes of SPD-Greens and a handful of CDU/CSU/FDP people, with let's say 60% of her coalition voting against it.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, they would. Unless, of course, the vote was declared a confidence vote. It's much ado about nothing (probably).

Of course, there is the issue of Germany currently not having an election law...

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

It's more like this: Merkel has currently a lot of trouble within her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to secure enough votes for the upcoming bailout package vote for Greece. Many CDU/CSU/FDP are outspoken against this bailout package. If Merkel fails to get enough votes and the bailout package is rejected, Merkel would either be a lame-duck with the SPD supporting the government for the rest of election period, or Merkel steps down with Von der Leyen taking over as CDU-boss.

Wouldn't SPD vote in favor of the package anyways ?

Yeah and probably also the Greens. But it would be kinda sad for Merkel if this gets passed only with the votes of SPD-Greens and a handful of CDU/CSU/FDP people, with let's say 60% of her coalition voting against it.

60% against? That would be the end of her. It's also not a remotely plausible idea.

[Tender Branson]

Yes, they would. Unless, of course, the vote was declared a confidence vote. It's much ado about nothing (probably).

Of course, there is the issue of Germany currently not having an election law...

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

It's more like this: Merkel has currently a lot of trouble within her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to secure enough votes for the upcoming bailout package vote for Greece. Many CDU/CSU/FDP are outspoken against this bailout package. If Merkel fails to get enough votes and the bailout package is rejected, Merkel would either be a lame-duck with the SPD supporting the government for the rest of election period, or Merkel steps down with Von der Leyen taking over as CDU-boss.

Wouldn't SPD vote in favor of the package anyways ?

Yeah and probably also the Greens. But it would be kinda sad for Merkel if this gets passed only with the votes of SPD-Greens and a handful of CDU/CSU/FDP people, with let's say 60% of her coalition voting against it.

60% against? That would be the end of her. It's also not a remotely plausible idea.

That's why I said: "Let's say ..."



I also don't really think this will happen. In the end, it will get passed with SPD-Greens and also with the votes of CDU/CSU, but I cannot say really how the FDP will vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, what are the chances of early elections occurring ?

[minionofmidas]

"Not zero anymore" sums the situation up well.

[minionofmidas]

Some fun Berlin numbers.

Change in eligible voters compared to 2006 election, by borough

Mitte +5.6
Neukölln +5.4
Friedrichshain - Kreuzberg +4.8
Pankow +2.7
Steglitz - Zehlendorf +2.4
Treptow - Köpenick +2.1
Charlottenburg - Wilmersdorf +1.7
Spandau +1.6
Tempelhof - Schöneberg +1.3
Lichtenberg -0.8
Marzahn - Hellersdorf -1.3
Reinickendorf -1.3

Change in postal ballot applications (Wahlscheine. Can also be used to vote in a different precinct of the same constituency, or even to vote in the same precinct as ever - you'd have to bring it as you'll be listed but struck in the voter's register. At least in Frankfurt, some 90-95% of Wahlscheine translate to postal ballots, typically nearer the lower figure. The bulk of the remainder doesn't vote at all. Very few people use their Wahlscheine to vote in person, though it does happen.)

Steglitz - Zehlendorf +14.7
Charlottenburg - Wilmersdorf +9.9
Tempelhof - Schöneberg +14.8
Reinickendorf +9.5
Pankow +32.8
Treptow - Köpenick +24.7
Friedrichshain - Kreuzberg +28.6
Neukölln +17.2
Spandau +11.3
Mitte +15.9
Lichtenberg +24.5
Marzahn - Hellersdorf +17.9

Boroughs ordered by share of the electorate to demand a postal ballot, ranging from 24% in Steglitz-Zehlendorf to 12% in Marzahn-Hellersdorf (17.0% citywide).
These figures seem to imply a better turnout than in 2006 (when it was 58.0%). Also, easterners getting into the postal voting thing.

[Tender Branson]

I've heard that the weather in Berlin today is good for voting: rainy and 15°C currently.

Maybe we could see 65% turnout, up from 58% in 2006.

[Tender Branson]

I feel like using a nicer base map, for when the time comes. Is there a decent map of council wards, districts, or whatever I should call them?

http://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/be2011/strukturdaten/SB_B7-2-1_j05-11_BE.pdf

page 40 maybe ?

No that suxx, compared to this one:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/95/Wahlkreise_Abgeordnetenhaus_Berlin.svg/2000px-Wahlkreise_Abgeordnetenhaus_Berlin.svg.png

Diolch, diolch, diolch.

It looks like you cannot use this map, because it's a 2006 map ...

You will either have to use the map in the first post or this map here:

http://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2011/ergebnis/karten/Erststimmen/erst.asp?sel1=1052&sel2=0651

Mostly because there have been changes in the districts.

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (2) now has 6 voting districts, instead of 5 in 2006.

Marzahn-Hellersdorf (10) now has 6, instead of 7 in 2006.

Or maybe someone finds another map of 2011 Berlin districts ...

[Tender Branson]

Here is the www.election.de base map with the 2011 district borders:

[Tender Branson]

As for the turnout, the rainy weather does NOT help turnout so far. The 12:00 figures are:

Die Landeswahlleiterin, Dr. Petra Michaelis-Merzbach, teilt mit: Die Stimmabgabe in den 1 736 Berliner Wahllokalen verläuft bisher ruhig - besondere Vorkommnisse wurden der Landeswahlleiterin nicht gemeldet.

Bis zum Mittag haben 19,1 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin bei wechselhaftem Wetter mit teilweise heftigem Regen ihre Stimme abgegeben.

Damit lag die Wahlbeteiligung zu diesem Zeitpunkt um 3,2 Prozentpunkte niedriger als bei der Vorwahl im Jahre 2006 (22,3 Prozent).

Die Wahlbeteiligung im Westteil war etwas höher (19,3 Prozent) als im Ostteil (18,9 Prozent) der Stadt.

Die höchste Wahlbeteiligung zur Mittagszeit wird aus Steglitz-Zehlendorf gemeldet (22,0 Prozent), die niedrigste aus Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg mit 16,6 Prozent.

http://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2011/presse/20110918a.pdf

[republicanism]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

No no, at this point it is just a "what if..."-scenario brought up by the media.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let me understand, FDP walked out of government, so that it is now supported by SPD ?

No no, at this point it is just a "what if..."-scenario brought up by the media.

Well, that's interesting still. I wonder if that would help the FDP or further marginalize it... Anyways, it will help pushing the Merkel government toward a less irrepsonsible position regarding Grece and Europe.

[republicanism]

At noon, turnout in Berlin is down from 22.3 to 19.1.

Seems to go down more in the West (relatively o/c) than in the central and eastern districts. What could be good news for the hip new party everybody finds so uber-funny and likable. And bad news for the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At the bottom a CDU poster with the slogan: "So that something changes."

At the top a CDU poster with the slogan: "So that Steglitz-Zehlendorf stays the way it is."


Change... but not to much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At the bottom a CDU poster with the slogan: "So that something changes."

At the top a CDU poster with the slogan: "So that Steglitz-Zehlendorf stays the way it is."

Lulz.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Magick:

[Tender Branson]

Magick:

What did you do ?

Fatten the lines within the city so that the borders of the 12 Berlin districts are easier to see ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The wonders of Paint and a steady hand. But, yeah, I thought it made sense to give the borough boundaries more definition as well.

[republicanism]

Hmpf. Given the turnout expectations and the trend of the last days, I'm not expecting a result that makes me smile this evening.
My prediction for Berlin, without any kind of wishful thinking:

SPD: 29 (voters feel save that we win it anyway --> low motivation --> low turnout --> bad result)
CDU: 23
Grüne: 18 (suffer badly from the Pirates' surge)
Linke: 12
FDP: 4 (the turn towards anti-euro-populism, though promising in the long run, came to late for the election)
Pirates: 7 (Seems unavoidable, the momentum is to strong and they had so much media attention...)
NPD: 3 (always had a significant base in Berlin, and the low turnout is helping too)
Others: 4

[ObserverIE]

Magick:

Did someone let the English Boundary Commission loose on south-east Berlin?

[BenNebbich]

Hmpf. Given the turnout expectations and the trend of the last days, I'm not expecting a result that makes me smile this evening.
My prediction for Berlin, without any kind of wishful thinking:

SPD: 29 (voters feel save that we win it anyway --> low motivation --> low turnout --> bad result)
CDU: 23
Grüne: 18 (suffer badly from the Pirates' surge)
Linke: 12
FDP: 4 (the turn towards anti-euro-populism, though promising in the long run, came to late for the election)
Pirates: 7 (Seems unavoidable, the momentum is to strong and they had so much media attention...)
NPD: 3 (always had a significant base in Berlin, and the low turnout is helping too)
Others: 4

SPD  28,5
CDU  22,5
Linke 13,5
FDP    3,5
Grüne 19,5
Pirates 6,5
Sonst. 6