2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Breaking: Apparently Black-Green in Hamburg is over. Not really clear what ended it, exactly - of course it had been in permacrisis for the past half a year or so, but I fail to see even a reference to any kind of straw to break the camel's back. Anyways, new elections early next year likely.

[minionofmidas]

Spain (regionals), Finland, Thailand, Argentina, Estonia, Nicaragua certainly don't count.

[minionofmidas]

Is that Rhineland-Pfalz thing comparing with a recent poll or what?

[minionofmidas]

The SPD has everything to gain from keeping the RhP CDU as the certified joke that it is. It's not as if the SPD was the natural party of government in the state or anything.

That said, for somewhat similar reasons they have been wary of getting the Greens into state government. They went with the FDP instead of the Greens in the 90s.

[minionofmidas]

Whereabouts?

[minionofmidas]

38% Left, that far west in Mitte. I think I know the precinct.

(looks it up) Nope, I was thinking of another precinct - the geographically tiny one consisting of the group of large Platten on Leipziger Straße. However, that precinct actually gave the left just 37.3% (SPD 20.0, CDU 16.9, Greens 10.6, FDP 8.5, Pirates 3.3, and frankly the Green and Pirate scores in your precinct might have tipped me off that I was wrong. )
I've found your precinct too though. Friedrichswerder.

[minionofmidas]

He was a good economic minister as well.

Wait... where was he even a mitigated disaster in that post?

[minionofmidas]

Lol Müller. The SC nomination has been dried and dusted (and public knowledge) almost a week before the public announcement. The intervening time went on ensuring an uncontested succession.

[minionofmidas]

Hamburg has changed its election law again. There's now open lists and five votes per voter for the statewide equalizing seats as well as the 3-5 member constituencies.
According to election.de, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen asks people expressly how many of the citywide list votes they want to give to which parties, other pollsters active in the city weren't even aware of the law.

Bremen too has introduced open lists and five votes apiece from the next election on, btw (but still only two constituencies with fixed numbers of seats, ie the two cities.)

[minionofmidas]

They'll be counting the ballots twice - the first time on election night they'll just sum'em by party. The second time they'll count them by candidate (and correct any errors from the first count, obviously).

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat (didn't doubleweight any questions)
Greens 62/76
Pirates 61/76
Left 60/76
SPD 45/76
FW 43/76
FDP 39/76
CDU 36/76
NPD 36/76

Hmmm...

[minionofmidas]

I should follow this election more closely. After all, the PARTEI's platform for our local elections calls Frankfurt "practically the Hamburg of Central Hesse".

[minionofmidas]

The Whal-O-Mat mentions a 'Noordstaat'. Is that seriously being considered or is it on the level of a United Kingdom of the Netherlands?

It *usually* means just  Hamburg-SlH merger, though sometimes other states are included in the concept as well. It has been more or less seriously been considered for just about as long as the FRG exists, but is going nowhere because there is no popular support for it (or, really, for any state mergers. While there is no tptb support for any new state creations - some of which, most notably Franconia, have widespread if somewhat shallow popular support.)

[minionofmidas]

Thus always to Black-Green experiments. Not that Scholz deserves it, of course. Can't stand the man.

Shame about the FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Thus always to Black-Green experiments. Not that Scholz deserves it, of course. Can't stand the man.

Don't know him much, but wasn't he responsible for the job saving Kurzarbeit regulations while he was Labor Minister during the Merkel I government ? So he cannot be that bad, right ?

I guess many former CDU voters crossed over to him because of his work as Labor Minister.

Just some random machine old-righty-slash-Schröderite (as in, sort of in between these two tendencies, which are allied and similar but not identical...) Social Democrat basically.
There aren't many other circumstances where he'd be so well placed to rake in the red-green voters. Which he must have - 11.5 for the Greens is not quite as bad as last time but still very very bad especially when compared to national polling. Unless the Left's gains came mostly at the Green (or usually Green but SPD last time) expense. We'll have to wait for the final results to see about that, I suppose.

Ahlhaus keeping von Beust's personal voters was never within the realm of possibility. Not that the CDU needed to crash and burn that badly, of course.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/buergerschaftswahlen/2008/

[minionofmidas]

Well, we have some partial count numbers... but they agree with the exit poll for the most part.

SPD 49.6 or 49.8
CDU 21.2 or 21.2
Greens 11.4 or 10.9
Left 6.7 or 5.9
FDP 6.0 or 6.4
other 5.1 or 5.8

[minionofmidas]

Haha, kewl.

Watch Germans counting ballots live online - the hawttest thing since internet pornography!

http://www.joeran.de/livestream-der-auszahlung-der-wahlen-in-hamburg/

[minionofmidas]

Also, here's the result from a St Pauli precinct.

SPD 42.8
Greens 19.0
Left 13.5
Pirates 10.2
CDU 7.5
PARTEI 5.0
FDP 1.1

[minionofmidas]

Ah, here we go. A more reasonable results link.

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.statistik-nord.de/

[minionofmidas]

Looking through that... the Pirate and PARTEI results in natural Green territory are ridiculously good, the Left gains come entirely from them (perhaps more than entirely - in some slum areas they certainly lost votes), and the SPD gains come entirely from elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

With but 95 precincts missing, it's

SPD 48.4
CDU 22.0
Greens 11.1
FDP 6.6
Left 6.3
Pirates 2.1
NPD 0.9
PARTEI 0.7
FW 0.7
etc pp

[minionofmidas]

First constituency in completely (this is for the city list vote)

Stellingen - Eimsbüttel W
turnout 57.0
SPD 50.0 (+12.4)
CDU 17.7 (-19.3)
Greens 14.7 (+3.0)
Left 7.0 (-0.2)
FDP 4.8 (+0.8)
Pirates 2.4

This is a three seater and we're using Hare, so if the constituency vote mirrors the city vote, the seat distribution is SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (0), Greens 0 (-1)

[minionofmidas]

Rahlstedt
Turnout 55.0
SPD 50.8 (+18.6)
CDU 25.9 (-22.7)
FDP 6.9 (+2.1)
Greens 6.9 (+0.7)
Left 5.1 (-0.4)
Pirates 1.3, NPD 1.2 (I'll be reporting others down to 1.0%)

Four-seater, so SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1) and a basically perfectly random constituency seat for the FDP (+1) if results mirror.

Lokstedt - Niendorf - Schnelsen
Turnout 61.9
SPD 49.8 (+17.9)
CDU 24.7 (-23.5)
Greens 9.3 (+1.3)
FDP 7.2 (+2.2)
Left 4.5 (-0.5)
Pirates 1.5
SPD 2 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

Wandsbek
Turnout 51.8
SPD 49.4 (+15.8)
CDU 24.2 (-21.3)
Greens 8.5 (+1.6)
FDP 6.4 (+1.5)
Left 5.6 (-0.7)
Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.1
SPD 2 (0), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (+1)

Bergedorf
Turnout 53.4
SPD 50.0 (+15.9)
CDU 26.2 (-20.1)
Greens 8.2 (+1.2)
Left 5.6 (-0.2)
FDP 5.0 (+1.0)
Pirates 2.0, NPD 1.1
SPD 3 (+1), CDU 1 (-1), Greens 1 (0)

[minionofmidas]

Rotherbusch - Harvestehude - Eimsbüttel E
SPD 42.9 (+9.2)
Greens 18.5 (+2.7)
CDU 17.9 (-19.0)
FDP 7.9 (+2.6)
Left 7.7 (+1.0)
Pirates 2.5, PARTEI 1.2
SPD 1, Greens 1, CDU 1 - no change

meh... no new complete results while I typed that... 33 precincts outstanding, but in 11 different constituencies... mind you, we have a complete Borough* with that one (just don't want to be posting ten times in a row ).

Eimsbüttel
Turnout 61.8
SPD 47.5, CDU 20.4, Greens 13.9, FDP 6.7, Left 6.3, Pirates 2.1

* a second one that is - Bergedorf borough forms a single constituency.