2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

I so wish Canadians could be as intelligent as Germans. Sigh.

lol at the FDP at 5% in Baden-Württemberg. Isn't that one of their strongest states?

You think this shows German intelligence? lol

[Franzl]

Ugh.  Good thing I'm not in Germany.

more beer for me

[Franzl]

Amusing how hugely the Greens jumped after getting out of the CDU-led coalition.

Doesn't surprise me really....I suspect several "old style" Greens are going to come home without the prospect of entering into a CDU led coalition again.

[Franzl]

SPD is almost at an outright majority with those numbers.

I wouldn't really mind them getting it in Hamburg (although I doubt it).

[Franzl]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

What else would happen?

[Franzl]

Would you vote SPD or Green in Berlin, Hans?

I'd even vote Green tactically..

[Franzl]

38% Linke...Lord

[Franzl]

Wow, you really, really live in Mitte. Is it a good place to live?

[off-topic]

You have to really want to be there....I think I'd hate it.

[Franzl]

I think these numbers are about right with Seehofer. I'd expect 50+ for Guttenberg.

[Franzl]

I dunno about the exact numbers...but I'll tell you why I very strongly approve of Guttenberg: He's a pragmatic, independent thinker willing to challenge conventional wisdom in the party (Wehrpflicht). Everyone knows he's right, but the CDU, in that particular case, supported it for no other reason than tradition. Can you imagine anything like the current reforms under Jung?

That's just the military part, he was a good economic minister as well. I wish Germany had something like primaries, I'd gladly trade Merkel for him.

[Franzl]

Two new polls by Emnid today:

Baden-Württemberg
CDU 40%
SPD 20%
GRÜNE 27%
FDP 5%
Linke 4%

Impressive that CDU-FDP is just barely losing a majority in this scenario.

[Franzl]

I agree, the NPD is in a whole other league.

[Franzl]

Impressive. Congratulations.

[Franzl]

I would have voted SPD for 2 reasons today.

a.) To keep the Greens out of government.

b.) The Hamburg CDU is terrible.

[Franzl]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

[Franzl]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

There is no one list that I'd trust with my entire 93 vote budget.

Also forgot to mention that FAG are of course runnin in the 5th.

For Kreis Darmstadt-Dieburg, I'll give three votes to one CDU candidate I'm personally friends with......and actually, in addition to that, I'll probably just mark the SPD list for the rest of my votes. I'm really quite satisfied with SPD leadership in our Kreis, believe it or not

In Groß-Umstadt....the same three votes to the same CDU candidate, and other than that.....I dunno. Doesn't really matter

[Franzl]

A CDU-FDP in B-W. is certainly not entirely out of the question.

[Franzl]

OK that's official. I'm predicting black-yellow in B-W

[Franzl]

OK that's official. I'm predicting black-yellow in B-W

Appart from the smiley, I'm inclined to agree.

It'll be our only joy the entire year most likely.

[Franzl]

New Emnid poll, showing the SPD gaining and the Greens losing:

35% (+1.2) CDU/CSU
28% (+5.0) SPD
16% (+5.3) Greens
  9%  (-2.9) Left
  6%  (-8.6) FDP
  6%  (-0.0) Others

Compared to several months ago, the government is actually doing rather well.

[Franzl]

Baden-Württemberg will be a CDU-FDP win, IMO....if polling stays this close. Something of a built-in advantage. Can't explain why. Just a feeling.

[Franzl]

Has Guttenberg's departure any measurable impact in opinion polls so far ?

I'm not sure any new polls have even come out...

[Franzl]

I'm sure I've mentioned before how much I hate East Berlin.

[Franzl]

In Rheinland-Pfalz, a traffic-light coalition is also another viable option. Beck has a good relationship with FDP.

Not sure he could sell that politically these days

[Franzl]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the anti-nuclear propaganda gave the left the few crucial points they need.